ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

delft said:

I know I have but a slight insight in the tactical situation but I see many villages to the north. I also see that Google maps has a different valuation of the importance of the roads.
On the earth pictures I see signs of old streams just I remember seeing them when flying over Czechoslovakia half a century ago in an Il-14 so flying rather low. I suppose that land is used not for crops but for keeping animals.
So I suppose the villages will be small but still tactically significant.

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Like for the Czechoslovakia flyover the impression from my last one, about one month ago, was:
everywhere (I'm referring to the Czech part, where there's a lobby which has been able to set up its mass-production to of course blend it with gas, calling it Green, Ecological, Alernative and stuff ... I know I have to stop)

I was now briefly looking for the news about this Desert Group ... perhaps the saying
He Who Fights And Runs Away
May Live To Fight Another Day
applies here: it seems they retreated toward some (little) hill (around Abu al-Alaj in "edmap" below; from what I figured, there's a communication tower there, this is why I think it's a hill), where it should be more difficult for ISIL to charge at them (VBIEDs!) as compared to the open northern flank (I facepalm) recently ... I hope they left nobody behind (don't want even to think about what would happen to "POW") ... I'll update

Looks like classic desert warfare - racing back and forwards through vast areas.
Can the SAA take advantage of ISIS out in the open and hit back big time?

SampanViking said:

Looks like classic desert warfare - racing back and forwards through vast areas.
Can the SAA take advantage of ISIS out in the open and hit back big time?

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I don't think so based on the Russian video I now watched:
and assuming it was true what I now read, which is ISIL took over "Zakia" (somewhere around where the blue arrowhead is in the map below), with the Desert Group, behind it now!, just holding up around Abu al-Alaj
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-386#post-402283
(approximately marked as the red ellipse in the map below) ...
I would be afraid about the three moves I indicated in white (hope it's obvious what I mean), and ASAP send in Strategic Reserves (if there's such a thing in the current Syrian Army ...) to this area (Ithrya-Khanaser), to be able to pluck holes (before the road to Aleppo is lost!):

I do know what you mean Jura. My point relates back to questions of orgnisation and structure on both sides and who is able to advance and retreat fast and retain good order.

You would surely expect elite armoured/mechanised divisions of a state army to have the advantage, which is of course an advantage in maneuver. Add to this firepower and air support, the SAA should be enjoying a Turkey shoot.

I think this battle is just starting. Isis seems to have thrown everything it has into this and I would expect the SAA and Russian air force to pounce on the ISIS hordes running around in the open and hurt them terminally.

SampanViking said:

I do know what you mean Jura. ...

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good; updating
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-386#post-402316
then:

now two pro-Government Twitter accounts basically say the Desert Group is back in Ithria; this should mean

1. ISIL indeed is in "Zakia" (or closer! ... just to repeat: the blue arrowhead), and
2. no Government troops behind (in the direction of Tabqa, so there should be no red ellipse below: sorry, but I'm lazy to change the map from today morning

and I place my bet on the direction "2" below, a wide move to the north-west (to Ithria-Khanaser road), to happen within ... until Saturday morning:

Jura said:

related to the activity of Kurds in/around

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...

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... is the most recent "peto lucem" map:

Jura said:

... as the only I saw is:
Apr 25, 2016

...

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... the second one now:
reportedly around ... which makes me wonder how is it going there?

Saturday at 7:52 AM

Jura said:

...
looking at
Hader Map — Satellite Images of Hader

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I'm going to update this post

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the defenses of Al-Hadher appear strong:


reportedly very recent view of "Army checkpoint" from the map above:
with like bulwark, and of "Tall Hadher":
(I watched a combat video of conquering this type of fortification at Khalsa Hill
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-382#post-401931
last week)

Yesterday at 7:56 AM

Jura said:

... around

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... which makes me wonder how is it going there?

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so-so:
ISIS advances to eastern outskirts of Palmyra City By Leith Fadel - 24/06/2016

|

Wednesday at 9:47 PM

Jura said:

... I place my bet on the direction "2" below, a wide move to the north-west (to Ithria-Khanaser road), to happen within ... until Saturday morning:

​

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as far as I know, nothing like that happened, which means I was wrong

(checking now I noticed somebody in Twitter had said pretty much the opposite LOL!

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Edited map from

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- This would be a effective direction, if

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would go this way

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