ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

The attack has all the halmarks of:
a) Trying to restore badly battered morale
b) Diverting front line fighting troops from pursuing other key objectives around Aleppo prior to any type of ceasefire actually coming into effect.

Even the BBC has stated that this is by ISIS and "other militant groups"

Very clearly the Syrian Government intend to include as many groups of possible in the collusion in order to exclude them from the Ceasefire. This will be very interesting.

To me this rather reinforces the notion that the next SAA push in East of Aleppo will be Eastwards to Dayr Hafir and then on to Lake Assad to split the ISIS territory and link up with the main Kurdish forces of the YPG.
It would also allow an advance along the East bank of Lake Jabbal to widen the corridor of the supply road and make such attacks far less likely in the future.

SAA reaction on the ground will be interesting.
Will they throw in everything bar the kitchen sink? or will they contain a (presumably) large number of some of the terrorists best fighters in nomans land and use accumulated supplies and air drops to exploit weaknesses in rebel/ISIS lines caused by such a redeployment?

The UN is to use Russian aircraft to air-drop food to blockaded Syrian populations, according to Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten:

The fighting on the Aleppo supply road continues and remains as interesting as ever.
This has been clearly a major reble/ISIS offensive and not a simply a hit and run raid.
I even wonder if the initial assault against the village of Rasm- an Nafal was not actually amphibious across Lake Jabbal, as to reach that spot by road undetected seems rather unlikely.

The Rebel/ISIS force is by all accounts taking a real hammering and nobody is talking about if rather than when all the occupied villages and blocked roads are retaken.
It does beg the question, what then is the point of doing it, if it is unlikely to have a lasting strategic benefit?

What it does of course is divert a large number of front line troops of the SAA and allies (including the Russian Airforce) away from other fronts and other targets. It looks more and more like a diversion that cannot be ignored, with the aim of buying time or allowing an other high priority target to move at less risk.

It is tempting to link this to the Ceasfire, but any group associated with this attack is unlikely to be included in any non-hostility agreement.
It does rather look to me as a way of buying time to better reinforce and fortify other next likely strategic targets for the SAA to attack. Dayr Hafir and Al-Bab spring to mind.

It also reinforces the notion of just how sparsely defended on both sides, large stretches of the vast front lines in this war really are. Yes, the local defence forces have been spanked by ISIS twice on the Aleppo road in the last six months, but is even this enough to justify permanently placing large numbers of combatants there; just in case, when there are active strategic fronts desperate for manpower?

Part of the answer is to look at the events of the last six months and it shows that there si far more to the strategy than simply lines on the map.
East of Aleppo we have seen the fight for two very clear strategic objectives. 1) the relief of the Kuweries Airbase and 2) the recapture of the Aleppo Thermal Plant. These are both key strategic assets and it is worth noting that as soon as it was clear that the Thermal Plant was lost, that ISIS shipped out en-masse rather than try and defend evey little farm and village in the surrounding countryside.

Likewise - North and West of Aleppo, the objectives were to link to the Al Zahraa enclave, close the A'zaz supply route and cutting off the rebels in Aleppo City itself.
Clearly occupying remote villages and lanes, even adjacent to a critical supply route, is not a priority.

I recently read that the US general Bradley said: Amateurs do strategy, professionals do logistics. Cutting the transport link between Turkey and Daesh is a strategic target but everyone is now into logistics. Also so many other rebel attacks took place at the same time that I wonder where the coordination took place. Turkey? Any "rebels" who took part in these operations are out of the ceasefire and few will be left.

World | Thu Feb 25, 2016 12:34am EST

ANKARA | By Dasha Afanasieva

Companies from 20 countries are involved in the supply chain of components that end up in Islamic State explosives, a study found on Thursday, suggesting governments and firms need to do more to track the flow of cables, chemicals and other equipment.

The European Union-mandated study showed that 51 companies from countries including Turkey, Brazil, and the United States produced, sold or received the more than 700 components used by Islamic State to build improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

IEDs are now being produced on a "quasi-industrial scale" by the militant group, which uses both industrial components that are regulated and widely available equipment such as fertiliser chemicals and mobile phones, according to Conflict Armament Research (CAR), which undertook the 20-month study.

Islamic State controls large swathes of Iraq and Syria. NATO member Turkey shares borders with both countries and has stepped up security to prevent the flow of weapons and insurgents to the hardline Sunni group.

A total of 13 Turkish firms were found to be involved in the supply chain, the most in any one country. That was followed by India with seven.

"These findings support growing international awareness that IS forces in Iraq and Syria are very much self-sustaining — acquiring weapons and strategic goods, such as IED components, locally and with ease," said James Bevan, CAR's executive director.

The sale of these cheap and readily available parts, some of which are not subject to government export licences, is far less scrutinised and regulated than the transfer of weapons.

The study found that Islamic State is able to acquire some components in as a little as a month after their lawful supply to firms in the region, suggestion a lack of oversight in the supply chain.

"Companies having effective accounting systems to establish where the goods went after them would act as a deterrent," Bevan said.

'REFUSED TO COOPERATE'

Bevan said the Turkish government refused to cooperate with CAR's investigation so the group was not able to determine the efficacy of Ankara's regulations regarding the tracking of components.

Turkish government officials did not reply to requests for comment.

CAR gained access to the components through partners including the Washington-backed Kurdish YPG in Syria, the Iraqi Federal Police, the Kurdistan Region Security Council and forces of the Kurdistan Regional Government.

The components were recovered during major battles around the Iraqi towns of al Rabia, Kirkuk, Mosul, and Tikrit and the Syrian town of Kobani.

The report's authors said they attempted to contact the companies linked to the components, adding the firms did not respond or were not able to account for where the goods went after they left their custody.

Seven Indian companies manufactured most of the detonators, detonating cord, and safety fuses documented by CAR. Those were all legally exported under government-issued licences from India to entities in Lebanon and Turkey, CAR found.

Companies from Brazil, Romania, Russia, the Netherlands, China, Switzerland, Austria and Czech Republic were also involved, the report found.

(Additional reporting by Orhan Coskun; Editing by David Dolan)

From Almasdar News

Major road along the Government supply route to Aleppo has been liberated from ISIS

By

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

-
26/02/2016

Minutes ago in the Aleppo Governorate’s southeastern countryside, the Syrian Arab Army’s “Tiger Forces” and their allies captured the strategic Khanasser-Aleppo Road after liberating the remaining villages under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) inside the Khanasser Plains.

According to a Tiger Forces correspondent in southeast Aleppo, the Syrian Armed Forces and Hezbollah imposed full control over the villages of Raheeb, Ruwahayb, Rasm Al-Tineh, and Muntar after another short battle with the ISIS terrorists occupying this region of southeast Aleppo.

Hammam was originally captured by ISIS during the first 24 hours of their large-scale offensive in the Khanasser Plains; however, since then, the Syrian Armed Forces and Hezbollah have been able to restore full security to this integral village.

Now, Hammam is under another serious threat, as ISIS looks to retake this village from the Syrian Armed Forces and their allies.

With the Khanasser-Aleppo Road fully liberated, the Tiger Forces and their allies will shift their attention to the Sheikh Hilal-Ithriyah Road, where they are currently under attack by ISIS terrorists at the imperative village of Hammam this morning.

Click to expand...

From Almasdar News.

From Almasdar News:

US advisers near battle in key town, Syria: Military
By

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

-
26/02/2016

US special forces advisers are within miles of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who they are helping to capture al-Shadadi from ISIS, a US military spokesman says.

The American forces have been helping the SDF through planning, re-supplying and coordinating air strikes, Colonel Christopher Garver, a spokesman for the US-led military coalition against ISIL, said on Friday.

US advisers and coalition air strikes assisted about 6,000 SDF fighters in encircling the city from nearly Feb. 15 to Feb. 22, Garver said.

“The SDF overwhelmed ISIL forces around Shadadi and isolated the city in just six days,” Garver said. “When our planners or coordinators are connected with them, in terms of making sure their air strikes are in the right place, clearing fires so that we can quickly attack targets that appear to the front of the SDF forces, that goes much smoother.”

The American forces were not on the ground with the SDF fighters and were far from the front lines, but were within miles of the battle field, Garver noted.

“They operate at the next higher headquarters,” he said. “They are not down on the ground with the fighters or in the lower echelon headquarters.”

“The loss of Shadadi increases the time, difficulty, and risk to ISIS as it attempts to move between Syria and Iraq,” Garver said.

On Monday, the US and Russia reached a draft deal, detailing a ceasefire to start in war-torn Syria on Saturday.

The Syrian government has accepted the terms on condition that military efforts against the ISIS and al-Nusra, which are not included in the ceasefire agreement, continue.

The foreign-sponsored conflict in Syria, which flared in March 2011, has claimed the lives of some 470,000 people and left 1.9 million injured, according to the Syrian Center for Policy Research.

Syria accuses Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar of funding and arming terrorist groups operating inside the country, including ISIS.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

I'm now listening to the news on BBC Radio 4 and it just said that Russia has said that it will continue to hit terrorists and that the continuity of the ceasefire will depend on whether they will hit the Western supported opposition. Let's get rid of the word "terrorist" and in future talk about "foreign sponsored armed opposition politicians".

History: My Dutch newspaper NRC ( ) had yesterday on its page C11 a review of this book:
Simon Chase & Ralph Pezzullo: Zero Footprint.
The True Story of a Private Military Contractor’s Covert Assignments in Syria, Libya, and the World’s Most Dangerous Places.
Mulholland Books.
From the article:

Intrigerend is het relaas van Chase’s activiteiten in Syrië (waar hij anti-Assad rebellen
hielp bewapenen die later als IS-vechters de vijand werden) en vooral Benghazi, Libië, in 2012. De aanslag op de Amerikaanse ambassade daar, waarbij de ambassadeur en drie andere Amerikanen het leven lieten, en die toenmalige minister van Buitenlandse Zaken Hillary Clinton nog steeds politieke problemen bezorgt, was volgens Chase een gevolg van het feit dat er zoveel PMC’s aan het werk waren die allemaal niets van elkaars opdrachten mochten weten en elkaar daardoor soms tegenwerkten.
De aanslag, zo betoogt Chase, was het werk van de plaatselijke aan Al-Qaeda gelieerde leider Ayid al-Ghali, van wie hij op reguliere basis wapens kocht, maar die de zakelijke betrekkingen verbrak toen een andere PMC-eenheid zijn neef arresteerde en – naar Al-Ghali én Chase aannamen – martelden .

Click to expand...

Two points
1. Chase, not his real name, the British mercenary who wrote this book with the help of Pezullo, provided weapons to "anti-Assad rebels" who later morfed into IS fighters as part of his work for US in Iraq.
2. (OT, but I can't resist) Very many private military contractor groups were active in Benghazi in 2012 who were not allowed to know about each others activities and who therefore sometimes hindered each other. Chase said the attack that cost the lives of the US ambassador and three of his friends was the work of Ayid al-Ghali, a local leader associated with al-Qaeda. Chase regularly bought weapons from al-Ghali until another private military contractor group arrested a cousin of al-Ghali and - as both Chase and al-Ghali assumed - tortured him.