ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
Black Shark
Junior Member
i hope the Mi-24's are fully weaponed to vaporize anything that comes close to the pilot.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Latest report is the rebels have executed the Russian pilot they captured.
There is apparently a video out of it on liveleak.
I'm at the office and cannot view the video, no sure I want to, so I won't post the link as I fear I already know what is on it.
The Turks also posted an apparent radar track of the Su24 before and during the shoot down. And tbh, that looks like extremely weak justification, as there was minimal overflight, and it looks like the Su24 was firmly in Syrian airspace when it was hit.
This is bad, very bad.
There is apparently a video out of it on liveleak.
I'm at the office and cannot view the video, no sure I want to, so I won't post the link as I fear I already know what is on it.
The Turks also posted an apparent radar track of the Su24 before and during the shoot down. And tbh, that looks like extremely weak justification, as there was minimal overflight, and it looks like the Su24 was firmly in Syrian airspace when it was hit.
This is bad, very bad.
ShahryarHedayat
Junior Member
Last edited:
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Turkey is really playing with fire here.
They are clearly expecting NATO to come have their back into intimidating the Russians into just lumping this, but many major NATO countries are extremely dissatisfied with Turkey already for their suspected continuing support and aid to ISIS and other internationally recognised terrorist organisations and groups, so that NATO backing may not be as a sure thing as the Turks are expecting/hoping.
Putin has already consistently demonstrated that he is not afraid to make big bets and being prepared to call the West's bluff. As such, it is an extremely dangerous move to be testing Russia/Putin like this, when you don't know for sure you have the unconditional support of NATO.
I think Russia will retaliate for this, the only question is how big that retaliation will be, and what NATO will do if Russia does effectively call their bluff and make targeted, surgical strikes against Turkey, by, for example levelling the air base those F16s were launched from with cruise missiles?
They are clearly expecting NATO to come have their back into intimidating the Russians into just lumping this, but many major NATO countries are extremely dissatisfied with Turkey already for their suspected continuing support and aid to ISIS and other internationally recognised terrorist organisations and groups, so that NATO backing may not be as a sure thing as the Turks are expecting/hoping.
Putin has already consistently demonstrated that he is not afraid to make big bets and being prepared to call the West's bluff. As such, it is an extremely dangerous move to be testing Russia/Putin like this, when you don't know for sure you have the unconditional support of NATO.
I think Russia will retaliate for this, the only question is how big that retaliation will be, and what NATO will do if Russia does effectively call their bluff and make targeted, surgical strikes against Turkey, by, for example levelling the air base those F16s were launched from with cruise missiles?
We have noted several times that all the previous incidents relate to Syrian Airspace in which Turkey claims a no fly zone and which the media obligingly refer to as Turkish Airspace.
At no point have I read a claim that the Russian Aircraft has crossed the border (previous graphic excluded) and certainly not engaged in combat while over the Turkish side of the border.
You do not have to be a genius to guess that with what is pretty clearly an attack on a Russian Aircraft operating in Sovereign Syrian territory at the invitation of the Syrian Government, Senior Russian officials will now be asking their NATO "partners" if this was a NATO attack on a Russian Aircraft?
At no point have I read a claim that the Russian Aircraft has crossed the border (previous graphic excluded) and certainly not engaged in combat while over the Turkish side of the border.
You do not have to be a genius to guess that with what is pretty clearly an attack on a Russian Aircraft operating in Sovereign Syrian territory at the invitation of the Syrian Government, Senior Russian officials will now be asking their NATO "partners" if this was a NATO attack on a Russian Aircraft?
ShahryarHedayat
Junior Member
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I'm not sure, whining to the western press is one thing, actually shooting down a Russian warplane is a completely different ball game.
I think Turkey are on dangerously thin ice even if the graphic they released is accurate, and that the Russian plane did, technically if marginally violate actual Turkish airspace.
If there wasn't any over-flight at all, Article 4 would, technically not even be an option, in which case other NATO states would not be obliged to come to Turkey's aid if Russia decides to seek retribution (so long as it doesn't got too far).
As I already noted, Turkey's actions with regards to ISIS and other terrorist organisations and groups have been deeply unpopular with many major NATO members, and they would be absolutely loathed to be compelled to send their own troops to fight and die and risk nuclear war for Turkey, over this issue.
For Turkey to have shot down a Russian fighter without any over flight would be a massive strategic blunder on the part of the Turks, and one for which they would pay dearly if that was the case.
Hell, even if things happened exactly as Turkey claims, they are still likely to pay dearly for this. But it would be so much worse for them if the Su24 never cross the Turkish boarder at all.