thunderchief
Senior Member
The Syrian army could hold Palmyra at heavy cost and the world would be happy to let the fight rumble on without too much attention.
If however they decide to conserve their forces and withdraw to a stronger position, it is suddenly international news.
I am aware, that in addition to the Roman Ruins, there is a also a major Gas Field near by. I also wonder how this works in relation to the direct proximity of ISIS and Al Nusra and whether the SAA withdrawal leaves these two extremist groups challenging each other for the Gas Field?
As an army, SAA is too rigid, based on Soviet model with added hindrance of compulsory political loyalty for Assad's family - not country . Also, units are made of mixed bag of conscripts - Sunni , Shia , Alawites , Christians ... There is no internal cohesion and morale is usually low . As such, SAA is pretty much useless as an infantry force, especially in attack . They prefer to use Hezbollah and NDF for that .
Despite some successes like capture of Homs , SAA has needlessly lost too much personal and equipment . Assad strategy for now indeed looks like he wants to retreat to coastal areas where he has most of support because he cannot endure to fight both Al Nusra (now heavily armed by the West) and ISIS ( armed by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies) . Would that strategy work is anyone's guess . If they retreat too much Assad's regime could crumble . Hardest thing in retreat is to stop . We shall see.