Is the PLA vulnerable to pre-emptive strike now and in the near future?
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Yeah, but it's not all roses for China which is currently getting dangerously close to a potential banking crisis itself, with unsustainable amounts of bad loans. Much of these foreign reserves are being soaked up anyway.
The above post reads like internet hype. Alot of what is said is exactly what I remember when Japan was supposed to drown the USA economically in the 80's. In the late 70's we were supposed to tank also. My whole life I've been hearing about how the USA is going to collapse financially, yet it never does. And we've been floating debt just as long. In fact our system depends on debt. And even now it continues to grow at 5.9% in real terms. Not bad considering it's a totally first rate developed economy. And also, the US has the lion's share of real assets in the world totalling close to 60 trillion right now. Maybe you've never heard of the term financial realignment?
It's not totally a rosy picture at all, but I'll bet dollars to donuts that in 50 years time, the USA will still have a prime economy, if not THE prime economy still. Most investors still think it is one of the safest places for their holdings. And I don't see that changing. The Euro recently was supposed to outright destroy the dollar, but look what's happening now. Others simply do not share the same kind of employment indexes, quality of life, freedom, educational opportunities, etc. that keep money flowing here. We've also had it worse economically before, and have always rebounded. I would agree, the amount of current debt is a problem for the USA. But as of now, everybody would go downhill in economic armegeddon as you say if certain actions were taken by some parties. Not fun for anyone. And because of this, I'm not worried at all.
But if the USA really wanted to do some damage, all they would have to do is enlarge CAFTA and send all manufacturing to low cost areas in Latin America.
That would be the ultimate economic pre-emptive strike. While we can always find low cost solutions in other areas, China cannot find another consumer market the size of the USA's for their cheap goods.
China's so called "bad debts" are in reality development loans. China's banks act like developmental banks and development loans have a different criteria than consumer loans. Payback for developmental loans are meant for much longer terms of payback but produce far greater social benefits. Mexico's banks are in much better shape than China's because they concentrate on consumer loans---to the detriment of the general economy.
At the same time, the general size of China's economy appears to be underestimated. Real growth are actually in the double digits. This makes so called bad loans less "bad" because they are being paid no matter what in the long term.
As a "first rate" economy, you can see the long term decay happening in the cash strapped local levels of goverment. It begins when your education standards are lower than most industrialized countries---heck the US national IQ is two points lower than China's. It begins in the rot of the inner cities, and when a substantial population, a percentage higher than almost all industrialized countries, live under the poverty line. You have the burden of a hidden third world nation in the cities.
Europe, Korea, Japan, Canada, and Taiwan have superior quailty of life, educational opportunities, health care, crime control, and social welfare compared to the US. You will discover that after you lif your head out of the sand. No city in the US is safe to walk out at night, and yet every city in Asia is from Beijing to Kuala Lumpur. As for employment? Please US companies are outsourcing. the kind of jobs our youth get in the US are serving McDonald's now. When is the last time you can get a highly paid, skilled manufacturing job opening?
Most investors are starting to see differently about the concept of holding too much US Treasury bonds or buying too much US real estate (why the prices for such is dropping).
Latin America cannot match the cost efficiency of manufacturing in China. The difference between the infrastructure between China and Latin America is like night and day. For businesses, quality of infrastructure is number one/
Another thing is the self egocentric delusion that the US doesn't have consumer markets that won't rival its own. Wrong. There is the common Europe. There is Japan and Korea, both feeding off from China. And most of all the biggest market itself---China, cash rich with a 40% savings rate instead of credit card debts. Why do you think every US retailer is rushing into that market head on?
At the same time, the general size of China's economy appears to be underestimated. Real growth are actually in the double digits. This makes so called bad loans less "bad" because they are being paid no matter what in the long term.
As a "first rate" economy, you can see the long term decay happening in the cash strapped local levels of goverment. It begins when your education standards are lower than most industrialized countries---heck the US national IQ is two points lower than China's. It begins in the rot of the inner cities, and when a substantial population, a percentage higher than almost all industrialized countries, live under the poverty line. You have the burden of a hidden third world nation in the cities.
Europe, Korea, Japan, Canada, and Taiwan have superior quailty of life, educational opportunities, health care, crime control, and social welfare compared to the US. You will discover that after you lif your head out of the sand. No city in the US is safe to walk out at night, and yet every city in Asia is from Beijing to Kuala Lumpur. As for employment? Please US companies are outsourcing. the kind of jobs our youth get in the US are serving McDonald's now. When is the last time you can get a highly paid, skilled manufacturing job opening?
Most investors are starting to see differently about the concept of holding too much US Treasury bonds or buying too much US real estate (why the prices for such is dropping).
Latin America cannot match the cost efficiency of manufacturing in China. The difference between the infrastructure between China and Latin America is like night and day. For businesses, quality of infrastructure is number one/
Another thing is the self egocentric delusion that the US doesn't have consumer markets that won't rival its own. Wrong. There is the common Europe. There is Japan and Korea, both feeding off from China. And most of all the biggest market itself---China, cash rich with a 40% savings rate instead of credit card debts. Why do you think every US retailer is rushing into that market head on?
Right. The sky is falling. All this is just bogus. Let's face it, students from around the world are desperate to come here and learn from our universities. And , yes, I've travelled to both Europe and Asia. And no, I would never move to either. I cannot find a similar quality of life compared to here. And I am currently working in the high-tech sector here in the USA. Another place foreign workers wish to land. Sure alot of manufacturing is moving out, but alot of developmental work is staying put. My industry shows that. And right now, the USA has the only large consumer market on the horizon. Unfortunately, Europe is going to have to bear the burden of a large socialized pension system with their populations aging. And unfortunately, not alot of younger replacements. Russia also has similar population problems of stagnating growth. The USA is self-sustaining and will not carry any of the burdens of these other two.
And China's savings rate is a bogus figure also. Did you know that a bulk of this is to actually cover the money thatis being drawn out of China's banks? And the reason why retailers are trying to get into the China market is because there is indeed alot of potential. But there is also risk. And China will have to solve alot of internal problems like air quality, and water quality and such. Not only that, but there will be future apprehension as a result of rampant piracy. Microsoft is expressing dismay at seeing some of it's intellectual property stolen in China. Plus Chrysler is also currently having second thoughts for the same reason. I do see China growing, but no, there are barriers, and China will see them. I do see the USA being cooperative with China's growth as it will, and currently does benefit the USA now. But then again, like I said, manufacturing can always be moved to another low cost region. I think as China grows, she'll be less competitive cost wise and we wil see this happen anyway. It ain't a wonder why China refuses to play by the rules and float the Yuan freely.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
What's all this talk about economics?
The last I heard was all China is slave labor so if all of the sudden the US left China for South America, all that will happen is the Chinese will get the day off. No effect at all.
If Americans companies could get up and leave so easily then they would've done so already. You always hear how these companies make no money in China unless it's all lies. Really, would they be in China if they weren't making money off of China? American carmakers make bigger profits from the Chinese market than back in the US now. Let see them get up and leave.
You'd wonder since there's already a free trade agreement with Mexico, why is it cheaper still to have their products manufactured in China and shipped half around the world. Empty threat. Just imagine the shockwave through the US economy when Congress forces US companies out of their billions they've invested into China and force them to go elsewhere. Easier said than done. Yeah and if that happened China will still have a manufacturing base that's less expensive than the US. Meaning China can just start making and profiting for themselves around the world instead of having American companies profit. The US itself can't compete against low priced goods of China.
Just like the flaw in the original point of this thread... If it's so easy for you, why don't you do it? If winning in a war against China is nothing to worry about, why haven't you tried to start one. If the US won't suffer from detaching from the Chinese economy, why don't you do it?
The last I heard was all China is slave labor so if all of the sudden the US left China for South America, all that will happen is the Chinese will get the day off. No effect at all.
If Americans companies could get up and leave so easily then they would've done so already. You always hear how these companies make no money in China unless it's all lies. Really, would they be in China if they weren't making money off of China? American carmakers make bigger profits from the Chinese market than back in the US now. Let see them get up and leave.
You'd wonder since there's already a free trade agreement with Mexico, why is it cheaper still to have their products manufactured in China and shipped half around the world. Empty threat. Just imagine the shockwave through the US economy when Congress forces US companies out of their billions they've invested into China and force them to go elsewhere. Easier said than done. Yeah and if that happened China will still have a manufacturing base that's less expensive than the US. Meaning China can just start making and profiting for themselves around the world instead of having American companies profit. The US itself can't compete against low priced goods of China.
Just like the flaw in the original point of this thread... If it's so easy for you, why don't you do it? If winning in a war against China is nothing to worry about, why haven't you tried to start one. If the US won't suffer from detaching from the Chinese economy, why don't you do it?
The US colleges are still first rate. Unfortuantely the high schools are not.
Actually one finds most Asian colleges pretty much filled. The US is getting Asian students because the colleges in Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong are getting so competitive, students are looking for alternatives.
As for high tech places, maybe you should check out the Silicon parks in Tokyo, Singapore, Bangalore, Taipei (there is big one where places like Asus and VIA is located), and in Shanghai.
USA the only large consumer market in the horizon? I don't think WALMART shares that opinion.
The USA is also facing a rapidly aging population and is depending on immigrants or outshore labor to make up for it. Unfortunately that immigration is also causing some problems.
China's saving rates bogus? Who sez so? You? Not according to the banks. This comes from a culture that actually saves money putting cash under some hidden part of the house.
China has a lot of problems with regards to pollution but they are dealing with energy efficiency much more firmly and rapidly than the US.
You apparently are not a businessman. Manufacturing cannot move to another low cost region like that. You have to consider the transportation, electrical, water, and safety infrastructure. China has superior infrastructure over most third world countries by spades. Just come and take a visit.
If China floats the Yuan, the value of it would rocket as banks would hoard it. In return they would dump US dollars. That will cause a major economic upheaval which is why every economist worth a damn is against this.
Actually one finds most Asian colleges pretty much filled. The US is getting Asian students because the colleges in Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong are getting so competitive, students are looking for alternatives.
As for high tech places, maybe you should check out the Silicon parks in Tokyo, Singapore, Bangalore, Taipei (there is big one where places like Asus and VIA is located), and in Shanghai.
USA the only large consumer market in the horizon? I don't think WALMART shares that opinion.
The USA is also facing a rapidly aging population and is depending on immigrants or outshore labor to make up for it. Unfortunately that immigration is also causing some problems.
China's saving rates bogus? Who sez so? You? Not according to the banks. This comes from a culture that actually saves money putting cash under some hidden part of the house.
China has a lot of problems with regards to pollution but they are dealing with energy efficiency much more firmly and rapidly than the US.
You apparently are not a businessman. Manufacturing cannot move to another low cost region like that. You have to consider the transportation, electrical, water, and safety infrastructure. China has superior infrastructure over most third world countries by spades. Just come and take a visit.
If China floats the Yuan, the value of it would rocket as banks would hoard it. In return they would dump US dollars. That will cause a major economic upheaval which is why every economist worth a damn is against this.
Ok pointless USA vs. China military comparisons are one thing, economical comparisons are another. Altouhg the level of this off-topic depate has been somewhat civilized, i've noticed few indicators of "my country is better than yours" so lets cut it out, ok?
Hello,
Just a quick comment -
Taiwan's "Silicon Valley" is in Hsinchu, aka Hsinchu Science Park:
It was one of KMT's pet projects in 1980's, located in the heartland of Taiwan's Hakka community. The Science Park was quite successful and was emulated elsewhere, i.e. Central Taiwan Science Park in Taichung, and Southern Taiwan Science Park in Tanian-Kaohsiung. Malaysia also attempted to emulate the model with "Cyberjaya", located 50 km outside of Kuala Lumpur.
Hsinchu has a history of academia and R&D. After the Chinese civil war, the nationalists set-up the National Tsing Hua Institute of Nuclear Technology in Hsinchu, which later became Taiwan's Tsing Hua University. They still claim as the successor to the original Tsinghua University established in 1911 in Beijing.
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As for US schools, like everywhere else, the quality varies a lot. If you browse American real estate listings, you'd find some that advertise the local school district. Parents look for good school districts, which usually means higher-priced homes.
Americanoilman
Banned Idiot
You say that every time the US fleet is defeated by 'swarms of anti-ship missiles' in naval simulations run at 'US Naval War College.' You should know they NEVER run simulations at the Naval War College so I know you are obviously making this up to feel good about the PLAN. If they did run simulations it should be quite obvious who wins. US has superior range (from carrier based strike aircraft), is better able to establish air-superiority, best anti-missile capability, and a fleet of submarines technologically superior to their Chinese counterparts who have zero anti-submarine warfare capability. Not to mention US has monopoly on electronic battlefield, better ECM, and an array of anti-ship missiles much more impressive than the ones China has (save the most recent Sunburns and Shipwrecks). US fleet has best access to intelligence, the most advanced sensors (something the PLAN lacks despite their long-ranged cruise missiles), and better training/ experience. No one comes close. Not even the Russian navy, not you're telling me the PLAN can defeat the US Navy. The PLAN cannot even fight the Japanese navy into a draw at this point.
That the US fleet, the fleet with the best ECM, jamming, CIWS, decoys, and interceptors (not to mention AEGIS) can be defeated by simple anti-ship missiles is something those in China and PLAN like to believe to make themselves feel better about their capabilities of thier fleet. They do not want to face the more obvious and simple truth, that their fleet remains so far behind that they do not have much hope of catching up this generation. It is also a wide misconception by amatuers of naval warfare that anti-ship missiles and range matter the most. Hardly. Popeye, not me, should be best to explain to you why anti-ship missiles. What about tactics, torpedoes, ASW, electronic/information warfare, intelligence, and tons of other things that influence naval warfare than having the best anti-ship missiles.
All of you widely underestimate the harpoon as an ASM, it is far more reliable, capable, and easy-to use/produce than its chinese couinterparts (save the most recent chinese ASMs). Naval warfare is not just about ASMs and you should understand that the PLAN still does not have the capability to "defeat the US fleet" as Assassins's Mace claims.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Don't get so upset. Just because there's resistance instead of masturbation to the belief in US omnipotence to the thread, don't make it a crime. If you don't want to hear the truth, then people like you shouldn't post such threads like these.
Sorry ... you think I made it up because that makes you feel better. I've read about such simulated naval wargames in articles and it has been mention on news shows. The last time I heard it was from a Newsweek editor on one of the weekend roundtable debate shows. So since I've heard and read about it being mention multiple times, it must have validity.
Too bad wars aren't won on paper or else the US would win hands down everytime. I don't care about what technical evidence you give. The fact is an obsolete Seersucker got past Patriot, AWACS, and Aegis sensors without being seen and hit Kuwauit City. A Silkworm flew past the US navy and hit a Iraqi tanker. A licensed produced Chinese anti-ship missile hit a Western designed Israeli stealth ship. Anti-missile defenses aren't up to the hype especially yours. Sorry to tell you the truth like this but Chinese anti-ship based missiles have proven quite effective in the past twenty years.
And next time read without emotion. I never said the Chinese could defeat the US militarily. There's a lot more to war than military technology which you don't seem to understand because you can't get past someone daring to challenge the myth of American omnipotence.
Sorry ... you think I made it up because that makes you feel better. I've read about such simulated naval wargames in articles and it has been mention on news shows. The last time I heard it was from a Newsweek editor on one of the weekend roundtable debate shows. So since I've heard and read about it being mention multiple times, it must have validity.
Too bad wars aren't won on paper or else the US would win hands down everytime. I don't care about what technical evidence you give. The fact is an obsolete Seersucker got past Patriot, AWACS, and Aegis sensors without being seen and hit Kuwauit City. A Silkworm flew past the US navy and hit a Iraqi tanker. A licensed produced Chinese anti-ship missile hit a Western designed Israeli stealth ship. Anti-missile defenses aren't up to the hype especially yours. Sorry to tell you the truth like this but Chinese anti-ship based missiles have proven quite effective in the past twenty years.
And next time read without emotion. I never said the Chinese could defeat the US militarily. There's a lot more to war than military technology which you don't seem to understand because you can't get past someone daring to challenge the myth of American omnipotence.
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