Is the Aircraft Carrier as a Capital Ship already obsolete?

SampanViking

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Calm down Obi Wan:D its just a discussion.

There is no contradiction in my posts and I started by trying to answer a number of points made by other posters, so maybe you should have read the full thread before replying;)

The reason for concentrating so much on the Falklands is simply because it is the only action of its type in which the only Air Cover was Carrier based and the enemy reasonably capable. Incidentally, two of my best mates from school did serve in the Falklands and had I followed my original intention to enlist too, could well have ended down there myslef. I would also remind you that the Vulcan raids on Stanley were not particularly successful and that some Harriers had to be re-tasked to finish the job.

It does however illustrate that even small Carriers can do a good job of Air Protection of a Task Force, but the role we undertook in the Falklands is not the same as the role of the big Carrier Groups.

If so then you have produced an argument against ALL military air power, thus we should save a lot of cash by disbanding the RAF, USAF, Armee d'Air, Luftwaffe etc. Once an aircraft is over enemy territory it's point of origin is irrellevant to those shooting back. Land based aircraft are no better protected than carrier based aircraft in this respect, so your point cannot be held as specifically an anti carrier point. It is an anti military aircraft point.

For Strike Aircraft, being Carrier capable means inevitable trade offs, so they are the Jacks of all trades, not the biggest, not the fastest, not the best defended and not the stealthiest. For most deep strike operations it is probably better to use Cruise Missiles, or Land Based Aircraft that can be re-fueled in mid Air or which can journey via a network of Global bases. In short, the specialists. In a stand alone conflict, Carrier Aircraft will be far more vulnerable to modern Air Defences than their Air Force Counterparts.

Of course Obsolescence is relative. The 1914 issue Cavalry Sabra was an absolute masterpiece and the heavy cavalry of that time could easily still put bolt action rifleman to flight. Sadly however on a battlefield of thick mud, dominated by artillery and machine guns, the Cavalry was an immediate fatal casualty and was never seen again except in ceremony.

Sooner or later somebody is going to send a Fixed Wing Carrier group somewhere and recreate the "Repulse and Prince of Wales event" and finally the penny will drop!
 

SampanViking

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How could I ever ignore a post from you Fu:)

I thought I had answered most of your points in the general comments in the two answers above. If you think I missed anything in particular, please restate it and I will happily redress the Issue.

There is nothing wrong with a country building Carriers, they are still very useful, providing countries realise their increasing limitations and vulnerabilities.

I am sure that Typhung is more the capable of coming here and presenting his own arguements if he so wishes and I would be very pleased to read them and discuss with him.
 
D

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I thought I had answered most of your points in the general comments in the two answers above. If you think I missed anything in particular, please restate it and I will happily redress the Issue.

In that case I would be reposting everything I said - I couldn't really see where you were responding. It's easier if you just quote the specific points of my first post in a new reply.
 

Roger604

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The carrier was almost obsoleted in the late 70's due to the Tu-22M / Moskit combo. Where before US Navy enjoyed a great advantage on the seas, after the introduction of the Tu-22M / Moskit combo, carriers were now afraid of operating too close to the Russian mainland.

The Moskits were so ahead of their time that they're still a big threat to many navies today.

I doubt the early versions of the Aegis system would have been effective against Tu-22M / Moskit. It's only after many incremental improvements that Aegis became reliable enough to give a measure of safety against the Moskit.

The Russians didn't stand still of, course. The Moskit evolved into the Shipwreck, but I suspect the big gap in capability between the "offensive" anti-ship cruise missiles and the "defensive" Aegis has narrowed much since the late 70's.

It remains to be seen whether the Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile will affect the balance of power as much as the introduction of Tu-22M / Moskit. If the description of its characteristics is true (terminal homing at Mach 8), then no current or near future carrier defense stands a chance once the carrier is located and the missile is launched.
 

SampanViking

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Yeah most of this has been covered, but lets go over ity again.

You're forgetting that Argentina was equipped with numerous jets and a number of Exocet missiles, amongst other things. AAW protection on board the escorts was also somewhat limited, so the carrier-borne harriers had a lot of responsibility for fleet protection. These days the escorts (certain the new Type-45 destroyers) would be able to take much more of the slack, not putting so much pressure on the carriers' aircraft and allow them to function better.

I remember the Falklands like it was yesterday. You are just restating that Argentina was capable of hitting back, which was the entire point of useing the Falklands as an example. Yes Naval Technology has come a long way in 25 years, but then so has Aviation COMINT and Missile Technology, so I would deem it unwise to shift the balance of capability too far one way or the other.



Almost assuredly. That said the carriers certainly were the reason the taskforce got to the Falklands at all. Otherwise the Argentine Air-force would not have placed the emphasis they did on trying to sink them. A handful of harriers made a real difference in the end.

Where have I argued otherwise? I am using the Falklands as a good example of Carriers providing an excellent Force Protection Role. Its the Power Projection Role I am questioning, a role that that our Carriers in the Falklands never attmpted, ie a Tripoli type raid against Civil and Military installations on the Argentine mainland.


I disagree. Properly escorted (i.e. not trying to scrimp with just one AAW destroyer) they should be able to defend themselves against attack.

I am sure the Admiralty made a similar arguement about the Invincible Power and Air Defences of Repulse and Prince of Wales as they sent them off to Singapore.


What if there is no "newly captured territory"? You wouldn't want to go to war with a state to be able to fight another one.

Its my contention. But ask yourself this, If Carriers are indeed so perfect for Power Projection againsta more serious enemy and not simple Gun Boat Diplomacy, why were the Two last Gulf Wars using hundreds of Ground Based Aircraft operating out of Saudi and many Strategic Bombers flown in from Regional US bases or the US Itself?



So what you're saying is you think the trend for aircraft carriers is ones that carry less aircraft. Although it is possible that in the future the supercarrier is reduced in size somewhat, I don't think we will be seeing much of a reduction in size. The airwing one is able to carry is very important - reduce it too much and the power-projection capability (as well as that of the carrier group to defend itself) is seriously compromised.

To simplistic a Big/Small arguement. I suspect the Carriers of the next few decades will be smaller in terms of the no of personnel and Aircraft that they individually operate and that the Capabilites of one Super Carrier will be split to 2 or 3 smaller ones. That is not to say Small Flight Decks, but that the amount of enclosed structure supporting the flight deck will be minimised to present a smaller and more survivable target.

Personally I'm very happy to see the Royal Navy ordering two 65,000 tonne ships. It will be a massive evolution of their capabilities.

Or a massive evolutionary dead end, depending of course on the anticipated roles that these Cariers are intended to play and of course that they are given sufficient Aircraft to be able to operate. Currently, the RN is having to borrow other Aircraft as most of its Harriers are based in Afghanistan providing close support to our troops there.


Really? Tphuang (and others) would disagree with you. He said a few days ago that China has already ordered parts for an indigenous carrier project. He also cited a Kanwa report that said China has got an agreement from Russia to supply four-deck landing systems and that an official announcement would be made after the Olympics.

Like I already said, nothing wrong with Carriers as long as they are built to undertake the right kind of role, ie Force Protection. I look forward to hearing the official Chinese announcment. My original point is that many other PLAN projects have very clearly been given priority over Carriers, otherwise Varyag would quite easily have been operational by now.

Did I miss anything?;)
 
D

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I remember the Falklands like it was yesterday. You are just restating that Argentina was capable of hitting back, which was the entire point of useing the Falklands as an example.

You implied that there was some sort of technology gap by saying Argentina was a "slightly better off developing country in South America". I was pointing out that in many ways things were fairly balanced.

Where have I argued otherwise?

I never said you did. I was responding to the point where you asked "had they instead been Full Sized Fixed Wing Carriers, would there have been much difference?"

I am sure the Admiralty made a similar arguement about the Invincible Power and Air Defences of Repulse and Prince of Wales as they sent them off to Singapore.

Now that's just a daft comparison. They had no air-cover, only their own flak-batteries and the like to protect themselves. These days defences can target the planes and the incoming munitions.

Its my contention.

So does that mean you would invade another state to get those air-bases, or not?

If Carriers are indeed so perfect for Power Projection againsta more serious enemy and not simple Gun Boat Diplomacy, why were the Two last Gulf Wars using hundreds of Ground Based Aircraft operating out of Saudi and many Strategic Bombers flown in from Regional US bases or the US Itself?

Oh, I dunno. Maybe because if you have friendly land bases it's easier? That said you can't rely on always having those bases.

I suspect the Carriers of the next few decades will be smaller in terms of the no of personnel and Aircraft that they individually operate and that the Capabilites of one Super Carrier will be split to 2 or 3 smaller ones. That is not to say Small Flight Decks, but that the amount of enclosed structure supporting the flight deck will be minimised to present a smaller and more survivable target.

So you will reduce the number of aircraft per ship. It's fine to claim you just have more carriers, but that will make the project as a whole more expensive.

Or a massive evolutionary dead end

So you think the RN shouldn't have got them? What would your solution have been and how much would it have cost?

Currently, the RN is having to borrow other Aircraft as most of its Harriers are based in Afghanistan providing close support to our troops there.

Did you miss the bit about the Sea Harriers being removed from service?

I look forward to hearing the official Chinese announcment. My original point is that many other PLAN projects have very clearly been given priority over Carriers

You said that China was "in no great hurry to build ships of this type". I would say that ordering expensive parts in preparation for construction before the project has even been formally announced is a sign of hurry.

otherwise Varyag would quite easily have been operational by now.

Varyag is in a similar displacement class to a Queen-Elizabeth class carrier. Does that mean the Chinese are making a big mistake?

I doubt Varyag would have been operational by now, because China was trying to figure out what to do with it.
 

Norfolk

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This is perhaps just pointing out the obvious, but unless the so-called "carrier-killers" are given a solid workout in a real war, no-one will really know whether or not supersonic cruise missiles, wake-homing torpedoes and the like can actually wipe out carrier strike groups with efficiency. Many of the signs, admittedly, are troubling in this regard with reports of such weapons being either immune to or able to simply overwhelm surface ships' defences. But none of this has been clearly demonstrated one way or the other.

That said, there seems for the present to be no alternative to carriers for the sustainable projection of power (especially amphibious landings), or indeed, even for convoy escort out of range of land-based airpower. Attack submarines can perform much of the strategic ASW mission for Sea Control, and cruise missile submarines can perform some of the strike role (and for the US particularly with its unique Ohio class SSGN conversions). But to be able to sit within a few hundred miles of an enemy coast and day after day strike deep inland or to provide close air support for landings still requires a carrier (and naval gunfire support, which is lacking in many navies).

As I stated in the beginning of this post, this is simply stating the obvious, but the key question remains whether or not carriers will successfully fend off purpose-designed "carrier-killer" weapons in order to allow them to perform their missions. Only a real, sustained war with such weapons will tell for sure. Personally, I hope that this all remains academic, and that we will never know. That said, John Keegan, though a civilian, has reportedly said that he believes that in the future, navies will be compelled to largely abandon surface ship operations and concentrate mainly on submarine-based ops.

Normally I have strong reservations about those who have never been in the military making military pronouncements, but Keegan does seem to have a rather better sense of military realities than most of his ilk. The technology for what he proposes I suspect is rather undeveloped, never mind the actual operational procedures that would need to be developed to do so.

One other thing, suppose that a carrier in coming years were sunk by carrier-killer weapons; this event alone is not necessarily sufficient in and of itself to determine whether this is a general rule as the circumstances of such an event may either be a one-off or lessons learned from such an event may recitfy or mitigate carrier vulnerabilities. Such an event may lead navies to making erroneous conclusions and create a bandwagon effect.
 

SampanViking

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Now that's just a daft comparison. They had no air-cover, only their own flak-batteries and the like to protect themselves. These days defences can target the planes and the incoming munitions.

Therein we see your Blind spot Fu, from Visual range to BVR from Manual systems to Automated, can you be so sure that technology has not arrived at the same balance of risk, simply at a new and higher level?

Not to sure where you are trying to go with the questions about new Carriers. It all depends on the role for which they are intended. The 2 new UK Carriers were being spun in the UK press as being "primarily for the delivery of Humanitarian Aid" - Sounds a little bit like "Our bombs don't hurt innocent civilians, actually they are saving babies" to me, but never mind.

Hi Norfolk

I enjoyed reading your post and agree that the scarcity of information one way or the other can hardly be conclusive.

I totally agree about Carriers giving Amphibious Landing and Convoy protection and that these are likely to be the Carriers definitive roles into the future. The role I am questioning is the Stand Alone Carrier group that sails up to a country and launches deep air strikes against its strategic targets. It is in this area that I believe the current proliferation of modern ASM's is going to make non-viable.

I think history has already taught us the only true lesson and that is that the "Bomber" always gets through. It is simply that for the last half a century, most countries have not possessed any "Bombers".
 

Norfolk

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Hi Norfolk

I enjoyed reading your post and agree that the scarcity of information one way or the other can hardly be conclusive.

I totally agree about Carriers giving Amphibious Landing and Convoy protection and that these are likely to be the Carriers definitive roles into the future. The role I am questioning is the Stand Alone Carrier group that sails up to a country and launches deep air strikes against its strategic targets. It is in this area that I believe the current proliferation of modern ASM's is going to make non-viable.

I think history has already taught us the only true lesson and that is that the "Bomber" always gets through. It is simply that for the last half a century, most countries have not possessed any "Bombers".

Hello SampanViking

I tend to agree with you that carrier strike groups independently acting in the strategic strike role are likely "cruisin' for a bruisin'". It certainly makes sense to use missiles as much as, and where and when, possible for such operations to either reduce or perhaps even remove carrier groups from harm's way.

As for what I wrote earlier, I'm afraid that I saw a lot of questions and didn't have many answers, although some of the unproven possibilities I found rather disturbing.
 
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