why are defections prevalent? is it because of the poor economy? at least in my belief, most people dont really care as much about ideology as they like to say they do -- what they care about is whether it continues to maintain, if not improve their quality of life. so my question is, do you think the nuclear weapon would not work as a hedge against destabilization efforts?
Well, part of the reason is that 1979 was not unlike the 1917 revolution - current government isn't representative of majority of forces that made the revolution happen, they were the most radical and determined group, representing the most staunch supporters.
Iranian population doesn't involve itself with the government it's under - you can see it simply through lack of political involvement, and ease with which protests explode.
Nuclear weapons can't hedge against that, if anything they'll force sanctions on a scale which is very likely to tip the internal balance. Not
necessarily so (no sane population in the world likes being sanctioned and dehumanized), but this is a bet. There are people very high up who can and will (potentially) step in to replace the current power structure, theit status in society will increase, and this is a lot of potential beneficiaries.
Moreover, quite a significant minority may believe that freedoom(c) will make them happy first worlders
just like Ukrainians.
Cultural identity here is a double edged sword, and not necessarily a protection - for sure Soviet Union had a lot of cultural identity and pride in 1991. If anything, cultural identity and pride gives people hope that shall Iran get out of its endless value fight with the west, it can raise up. Unlike DPRK(again), there is no effective informational blockade, internet is here, examples of oily prosperous paradises are right on the other side of the gulf.
But if there is a known path to prosperity in modern world - it's access to western markets. Arguably, the only one.
this would be fatal though, there will be no time for iran to develop a nuclear weapon and its attendant delivery mechanisms by the time military action is taken.
They may not agree.
US and EU(and entire arab coalition before them) has effectively failed to collapse Yemeni ability to attack Israel and the shipping, despite this capability being reeliant on components smuggling through hostile nations and waters. Northertn Yemen, one of the poorest nations on Earth after many decades of civil war and intervention, is simply incomaparable to Iran.
Iran is many times larger, many times more populous; it could (and for decades did) undertake hardening projects on a scale Houthi government can't hope to match. After decades of work, they not just have an incredible and increasingly advanced missile and assymetric arsenal, they've just recently managed to emerge as one of the most interesting AD(!) producers in the world. Releasing systems is not yet deploying them at scale, sure, but Ayatollahs can look with optimism into the future. Their relative vulnerability gap is decreasing, not increasing.
As a result, Iranian retaliatory capability within region simply can't be denied. They're probably the most thrersholdest threshold nuclear nation in the world (i.e. within
weeks to assemble first low-powered nukes). Not tsar-bombas, sure, but more than enough to devastate Israel. We sometimes tend to forget how goddamn mighty even "small" 5-10kt nukes are.
Ensuring that intended warhead (of the simplest and dumbest design) design will fit a certain size, and having suitable missiles isn't that much of planning ahead.
As a result, they may reasonably consider they achieved minimal nuclear deterrent; this they won't give up, but can consider giving up ability to multiply it.
What they need is a breath of economic air. This is a reasonable trade opportunity.
