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Lethe said:

In relation to recent discussions, latest (Feb 2017) GDP projections from PwC:

Note that India is projected to surpass Japan as the world's third-largest economy a mere decade from now. Given India's current and historical levels of military spending, continued economic growth will allow India to emerge as the world's third largest military spender in the same timeframe.

The projections for 2050 are clearly entering 'superpower' territory, both in their resemblance to acknowledged superpowers, and their lack of resemblance to the figures for all non-superpower nations.

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India need to stop obsessed with the term "superpower", China never once said itself will became a superpower anytime soon, but yet all I hear from India is India superpower 2020, 2030, 2050 etc...

This is not good for your psyche.

Delusions of Grandeur, is the best way to describe Bharat's aspirations of becoming a superpower. As for the GDP projections, well, even the western economists have doubted the way Bharat forecasts it's GDP calculations. So surpass Japan, don't surpass Japan ... it really doesn't make any difference, when up to 400 million hindustanis love below the poverty line, basic sanitation isn't provided to 500 million hindustanis and etc.

Corruption has no borders, has no skin color, nor does it have any religion. What it does do, is become an impediment to any country aspiring for true economic prosperity. And true economic prosperity does NOT mean where a few families are richer than half the population combined.

So spare us the hoopla, will ya!

sanblvd said:

India need to stop obsessed with the term "superpower", China never once said itself will became a superpower anytime soon, but yet all I hear from India is India superpower 2020, 2030, 2050 etc...

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My use of the term 'superpower' in relation to India's long-term prospects is my own and bears no relation to any other pattern of usage that you seem to have found objectionable.

For clarity, while the future is of course highly uncertain, and while terms like 'superpower' vs 'great power' are poorly defined, I date China as a superpower from 2025, and India as a potential superpower from 2050, likely achieved by 2060. Both assertions are closely linked to economic projections such as those from PwC, though it is more accurate to say that I think GDP transition points (e.g. China overtaking the USA) are a reasonable index of broad-spectrum developments that, collectively, earn the 'superpower' label.

We could debate the philosophical nuance behind the term 'superpower', but for practical purposes I think it suffices to note that by 2050 PwC projects India's GDP to be >80% that of USA's, while being four times that of the next largest nation, Indonesia. That is to say, there is a clear group of three nations at the top of the GDP table that are in a totally different league from those below them, and one of those three is India. The name you give to the nations in that group is up to you.

Dizasta1 said:

As for the GDP projections, well, even the western economists have doubted the way Bharat forecasts it's GDP calculations.

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The projections are from PriceWaterhouseCoopers, a UK firm.

So surpass Japan, don't surpass Japan ... it really doesn't make any difference, when up to 400 million hindustanis love below the poverty line, basic sanitation isn't provided to 500 million hindustanis and etc.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure what you intend to demonstrate by this. The geopolitical significance of GDP is not undermined by low GDP/capita, the unequal distribution of wealth, the presence of corruption, etc. When India's GDP surpasses Japan's by 2030, it will still of course be a much poorer nation with comparatively undeveloped infrastructure, achievements in high technology, etc. but this does not undermine the significance of the shift, anymore than the significance of China's rising GDP is lessened by continuing to lag western and other advanced nations across most per-capita-sensitive measures.

If your point is that ongoing poor performance in infrastructure, education, healthcare, environmental degradation, as well as socio-cultural problems such as corruption, communal tensions, etc. threaten India's future growth prospects, that would be a perfectly reasonable point. But it is little relevance to the topic at hand. A future Indian nation with a GDP larger than all nations bar China and the USA, can support a very robust military-industrial apparatus irrespective of anything else that may be going on.

Side Note: I can't seem to find threads on Sino-Indian border standoff. Is it removed due to its sensitivity and baiting nature?
I'm curious to see the more professional assessment on the current situation.

Back to military things...

Malabar 20117 excercise

Lethe said:

My use of the term 'superpower' in relation to India's long-term prospects is my own and bears no relation to any other pattern of usage that you seem to have found objectionable.

For clarity, while the future is of course highly uncertain, and while terms like 'superpower' vs 'great power' are poorly defined, I date China as a superpower from 2025, and India as a potential superpower from 2050, likely achieved by 2060. Both assertions are closely linked to economic projections such as those from PwC, though it is more accurate to say that I think GDP transition points (e.g. China overtaking the USA) are a reasonable index of broad-spectrum developments that, collectively, earn the 'superpower' label.

We could debate the philosophical nuance behind the term 'superpower', but for practical purposes I think it suffices to note that by 2050 PwC projects India's GDP to be >80% that of USA's, while being four times that of the next largest nation, Indonesia. That is to say, there is a clear group of three nations at the top of the GDP table that are in a totally different league from those below them, and one of those three is India. The name you give to the nations in that group is up to you.



The projections are from PriceWaterhouseCoopers, a UK firm.



I'm not sure what you intend to demonstrate by this. The geopolitical significance of GDP is not undermined by low GDP/capita, the unequal distribution of wealth, the presence of corruption, etc. When India's GDP surpasses Japan's by 2030, it will still of course be a much poorer nation with comparatively undeveloped infrastructure, achievements in high technology, etc. but this does not undermine the significance of the shift, anymore than the significance of China's rising GDP is lessened by continuing to lag western and other advanced nations across most per-capita-sensitive measures.

If your point is that ongoing poor performance in infrastructure, education, healthcare, environmental degradation, as well as socio-cultural problems such as corruption, communal tensions, etc. threaten India's future growth prospects, that would be a perfectly reasonable point. But it is little relevance to the topic at hand. A future Indian nation with a GDP larger than all nations bar China and the USA, can support a very robust military-industrial apparatus irrespective of anything else that may be going on.

Click to expand...

@Lethe

Remember India has a lot of similarities with Brazil which also had a few decades of 7% growth, yet now faces economic stagnation and is stuck in the middle income trap.

From a cultural perspective, these include terrible timekeeping and a lackadaisical attitude to excellence, work and education levels. Huge ethnic/wealth differences in Brazil, and in India's case, also religious/linguistic/caste differences eg. one-third of India's districts have an active insurgency where state officials are being killed everyday. The Brazilian state has lost control over large swathes of its crime-ridden cities

Other features include terribly low levels of infrastructure investment, crazy contradictory laws, non-industrialised economies and incompetent government. R&D spending and job creation is also really bad.

In comparison, China is pretty much the opposite of all these characteristics - just like the other East Asian Economic Tigers (Japan/SK/Taiwan/Singapore/HK) - who are all heavily influenced by Confucian Chinese values. Just have a look at the metrics between China/India/Brazil/Japan/Korea etc.

Also note that China has already passed Brazil in terms of wealth levels, yet China's current growth of 6%+ means it will double in size over the next 12 years.

Nonetheless, an India that reaches Brazilian wealth and technology levels will be similar to China today, and will be a quasi-superpower.

AndrewS said:

@Lethe

Remember India has a lot of similarities with Brazil which also had a few decades of 7% growth, yet now faces economic stagnation and is stuck in the middle income trap.

From a cultural perspective, these include terrible timekeeping and a lackadaisical attitude to excellence, work and education levels. Huge ethnic/wealth differences in Brazil, and in India's case, also religious/linguistic/caste differences eg. one-third of India's districts have an active insurgency where state officials are being killed everyday. The Brazilian state has lost control over large swathes of its crime-ridden cities

Other features include terribly low levels of infrastructure investment, crazy contradictory laws, non-industrialised economies and incompetent government. R&D spending and job creation is also really bad.

In comparison, China is pretty much the opposite of all these characteristics - just like the other East Asian Economic Tigers (Japan/SK/Taiwan/Singapore/HK) - who are all heavily influenced by Confucian Chinese values. Just have a look at the metrics between China/India/Brazil/Japan/Korea etc.

Also note that China has already passed Brazil in terms of wealth levels, yet China's current growth of 6%+ means it will double in size over the next 12 years.

Nonetheless, an India that reaches Brazilian wealth and technology levels will be similar to China today, and will be a quasi-superpower.

Click to expand...

Brazil has been stuck in the middle income trap for decades.

India is different as it is much poorer than Brazil currently. And considering the population size of China and India, even being a middle income country means it would be one of the most powerful and wealthy nations on the planet.

Right now the GDP/capita of India is around 2k, if it reaches china's current stage of 10k it'll already be much larger than Japan economically.

But if India want to reach true superpower status, it'll need to be able to produce its own weapons instead of depending on medium powers like UK and France for planes and ships. Think of the shame if US had to buy other NATO countries equipment because they can't produce it, never going to happen. Specialised equipment like harriers don't count.

Also, in order to be considered a superpower, it much lead in certain technologies. So far India is no where near the competition.

Russia on the other hand means technology and weapons fields but is just poor due to low population.

One can argue that once India becomes richer, it'll start to spend more on R&d to catch in weapons research and manufacturing and technology research. Considering the number of good Indian engineers I work with everyday, it will probably happen. But India unlike China have a poor industrial base for manufacturing, so might take longer.

I don't think India can be considered a superpower in 2050, economically it will be huge, but tech and manufacturing will take longer to catch up to advanced powers. So I would still only consider it as a great power like China now. But more powerful than UK and France.

Whereas in 2050, only USA and China can probably considered as superpowers based on current trajectories.

AndrewS said:

Remember India has a lot of similarities with Brazil which also had a few decades of 7% growth, yet now faces economic stagnation and is stuck in the middle income trap [.... Nonetheless, an India that reaches Brazilian wealth and technology levels will be similar to China today, and will be a quasi-superpower.

Click to expand...

There is certainly a rich and nuanced discussion one could have about India's future development prospects, the challenges it will confront along the way, etc. Certainly India's path will not be the same as China's, for many reasons. And I welcome such a discussion, when it is conducted with sincerity, rather than as an exercise in nationalist point-scoring.

Nonetheless, despite the issues you have raised, we have ultimately arrived at very similar conclusions: that India will, over the coming decades, become a very powerful and influential nation in this world. Whether India earns the label of 'superpower', and if so when, is just fiddling around the edges of this basic conclusion.

Given the narrow subject of this thread, we should probably end on this point of agreement. But I will end with a quote, reflecting the limited vision that is all too common amongst those who cast a cursory and dismissive eye on other cultures:

"The history of China has shown no development, so that we cannot concern ourselves with it any further [....] China and India as it were lie outside the course of world history." -- G. W. F. Hegel, 1820.

In many ways India is not really a nation as much as a confederation of independent States, each province speak their own langue and their own laws. Most Indian from difference state that not bordering each other cannot communicate with their mother tongs, they need to speak English with each other. This along with other social economic problems is what making India so difficult to centralize to make polices, and I think most Indian knows this and they cheer Modi as a strongman figure.

However I say this, India do have a lot of positive, it do have a chance to became a major regional power from its geography, it is located in a excellent geographic position, it is surround by ocean on all 3 sides that means its great for commence, almost all of India can grow crops so that means it can be food secure.

It is also located next to Middle East, Southeast Asia and closer to Africa than Asia, that means India's is very close to energy sources in the Middle East, it's also in a better location to do business with South East Asia and Middle East as well as Africa.

So its in theory India is possible to dominate East Africa to South East Asia, but its unlike they will achieve it though.

Lethe said:

There is certainly a rich and nuanced discussion one could have about India's future development prospects, the challenges it will confront along the way, etc. Certainly India's path will not be the same as China's, for many reasons. And I welcome such a discussion, when it is conducted with sincerity, rather than as an exercise in nationalist point-scoring.

Nonetheless, despite the issues you have raised, we have ultimately arrived at very similar conclusions: that India will, over the coming decades, become a very powerful and influential nation in this world. Whether India earns the label of 'superpower', and if so when, is just fiddling around the edges of this basic conclusion.

Given the narrow subject of this thread, we should probably end on this point of agreement. But I will end with a quote, reflecting the limited vision that is all too common amongst those who cast a cursory and dismissive eye on other cultures:

"The history of China has shown no development, so that we cannot concern ourselves with it any further [....] China and India as it were lie outside the course of world history." -- G. W. F. Hegel, 1820.

Click to expand...

Hegel is typical of Eurocentric ignorant 18th Century European.He can be forgiven for drinking cool aid that only
European civilization is worthy of appreciation

He is ignorant because if he just need to read the history. He will know that China was the dominant and most advanced civilization in far East
India is the creation of British empire before that India was amalgamation of many small and warring nation. The Mughal did some empire building but far from complete

Typical ignorant European lumping up India and China which has no relation at all other than Buddhism

As to India becoming superpower Remember De Gaulle word in respect to Brazil For year before the war and right after it Brazil is touted as the next superpower . Here what De Gaulle has to to say
He said" BRAZIL WILL ALWAYS BE THE FUTURE POWER"
And that apply to India as well I lost count how many books, article and academic study who said India will overcome China. From Hare to tortoise books . It hasn't happened and I doubt it will ever happen. It tell more about the western anxiety in respond to China rise than anything else. By saying India will win they try to convince themselves that their model of government is correct when all around them they saw the malaise of western democrazy. that is why they are hyping India Shinning