Well India would need to develop some very detailed plans on how it could reverse trade deficit with ASEAN if it is to pour hundreds of billions and at least a decade into developing this route. It can't just say the trade deficit can change and that's reason enough. Anyway hopefully India does commit to pouring billions and decades just to build some low speed freight lines. If the infrastructure even works out, we'll see what ASEAN economies and industry is like then compared to India.
Indian Economics thread.
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Well India would need to develop some very detailed plans on how it could reverse trade deficit with ASEAN if it is to pour hundreds of billions and at least a decade into developing this route. It can't just say the trade deficit can change and that's reason enough. Anyway hopefully India does commit to pouring billions and decades just to build some low speed freight lines. If the infrastructure even works out, we'll see what ASEAN economies and industry is like then compared to India.
Construction of India Myanmar Thailand Trilateral Highway has started already
And it’s not just trade ASEAN needs india to counter China as well ASEAN is a group of small countries they cannot counter increasingly assertive China on their own no matter how rich they get
ASEAN plans to hold a maritime naval exercise with India to enhance security between the bloc's member states and the South Asian country while promoting solidarity with each other.
The decision on the naval exercise was made during the Asean Defense Senior Officials' Meeting (ADSOM) on May 17 that was held at the Cambodian Defense Ministry in Phnom Penh.
In what way does ASEAN need India to counter China?
By being master of India and getting India to militarily engage China? If so, how on earth would India militarily engage China? That's like asking a 1980s China to conventionally engage the US in Hawaii. Geography is not friendly to India wrt ASEAN or against China.
ASEAN's military worries with China can be placated very easily if China wants to find a way to set their minds at ease. It has no disputes with most of ASEAN - wrt Philippines and Malaysia, both are increasing trade with China for the last few decades despite dispute tensions being there.
Holding an exercise with India means f all. Like honestly, ASEAN navies held a maritime exercise with India... end of China wooo! Jai Hind! ... No. Nothing changed. No military engagement, increased trade, more agreements signed with China, more friendliness with China actually with Malaysia and Philippines. Sure all things go back and forth and change but militarily, ASEAN just wants China to not invade them basically and despite disputes, China hasn't and hasn't got plans to.
If China reaches its full potential and economic/industrial size in decades time, military engagement against China would just be out of the question and the entire dynamic between China and ASEAN would have even less of a military tone (as small it its current one already is). China is no Russia. China is no USA. If it resorts to active aggressive and unfair postures it wouldn't be military like those former nations.
Both India and ASEAN want to increase trade via sea , air and land and the strategic partnership between India and ASEAN will keep increasing Philippines buying Brahmos missiles is only a small beginning
but my interest is in trade that’s why I tallk only about trade
I'm very interested in trading with you. May I know where I can buy some Indian smartphones, TVs or sedans/saloons?
Will you help me construct a nuclear power plant in my country?
They're not selling crappy Chinese products okay friend. They sell high civilizational products like cow piss, cow poop, brahmos missiles (Russian TOT) Arjun tanks (that IA doesn't even want to use) Tejas planes (IAF reluctantly uses) and it's submarines that loves to take literal swimming under the sea.
But India left the RCEP. Mainly due to a significant trade deficit and was afraid it would get worse. Trade with ASEAN without rcep, India would never be competitive or high tech enough to displace china or Japan or South Korea. Even if India has FTA with many of those countries, the RCEP is much more encompassing. You can build railways to ASEAN but trade will be limited in growth and there will be a ceiling. India will likely still have trade deficit and not surplus going forward.
The India-Thailand highway is only a small footnote. India must take these baby steps. Modi's withdrawal from RCEP clearly signaled that he is betting everything on internal consumption of a huge population. He doesn't really have any other option. Akin to China's BRI, India wants to reach the Pacific overland. As pointed out in earlier postings, they are grabbing the low-hanging fruits. Given India's financial situation and a straight-line INR depreciation curve since Independence, hard to imagine how challenging sections can be done any time soon regardless of India's non-competitiveness in other areas.
Roads open up commerce but are far less efficient than rail. I remember reading long ago that the average truck speed in India was only like 30 kph (before their quad road network opened). Southeast Asia is mostly meter gauge so a broad gauge rail link from India is a non-starter.
It is a race to see whether the road network or the rail network will attract new special economic/industrial zones. Along China's standard gauge rail network or road across from India to Vietnam. Past experience suggest these zones/supply chains will take 15 or more years to achieve good scale and efficiency. Rail seems to win hands down.
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