India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan

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yeah I noticed:
... talking about $10b ...
it's
#19 AndrewS, Thursday at 3:39 PM
China woos Bhutan with $10 billion in standoff with India

Beijing seen driving wedge in New Delhi-Thimphu alliance
YUJI KURONUMA, Nikkei staff writer

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NEW DELHI -- Locked in a two-month border standoff with India and tiny Bhutan in the Himalayas, China is offering its little neighbor $10 billion in economic assistance to soften its stance.

Sources say that since the offer, Bhutan has toned down its allegations that China is violating its territorial claims.

The development complicates Bhutan's relations with India, which blocked Chinese troops after Bhutan, -- a long-time security ally of India's -- notified New Delhi that the troops were attempting to construct a road in a part of the Doklam Plateau claimed by both China and Bhutan.

India and China have accused each other of violating the border, with troops from both countries in a face-off since June. Winning over Bhutan would lend more credence to their claims, and it appears Beijing's overture is having the desired effect. Speaking to Indian reporters earlier this month, a Chinese diplomat said that Bhutan clearly acknowledged to Beijing that the area where Indian troops entered is not part of Bhutan.

If the claim is correct, it would signal a weakening of ties between India and Bhutan.

Although a Bhutanese government official immediately issued a denial to Indian media, New Delhi remains unconvinced. A government source told the Nikkei early this month that China's $10 billion package -- which includes a grant, low-interest loans and direct investment -- is tempting Bhutan.

When External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj met with her Bhutanese counterpart, Damcho Dorji, on Aug. 11 on the sidelines of a regional meeting, she told Dorji not to be betrayed by China, asking further that Bhutan retain its alliance with India. Dorji, however, only said that he hoped the standoff would be resolved peacefully and amicably, refraining from any comment that would provoke China.

In June, Bhutan's foreign ministry blasted China, saying that the construction work violates an agreement between the two countries.

The Chinese government-backed tabloid Global Times later ran an editorial referencing Dorji's comment and stating that Bhutan clearly wants to maintain neutral in its criticism of India.

China is wooing Bhutan in order to validate its presence in Doklam. India sent troops only after Bhutan claimed that China had started construction work in Bhutanese territory. Beijing hopes Bhutan will relinquish its claim to the disputed area, thereby obviating the need for Indian troops, which would then be violating Chinese territory.

According to Indian government sources, China and India informally agreed to simultaneously reduce troop deployments in phases, aiming for a complete withdrawal between September and October, or at least by year-end.

Both Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping need to save face, hence the simultaneous draw down. But tensions remain, with Chinese and Indian soldiers throwing stones at each other in Kashmir.

According to an Indian government source, there are about 320 Indian and 500 Chinese troops in the area, with the numbers declining. But behind them stand 12,000 Indian soldiers and a 16,000-strong Chinese contingent, raising concerns that if shooting starts, it could quickly grow into a major conflict.
and as they say
If Something Sounds Too Good To Be True, It Isn't

... or Bhutan gets like quadruple of its current GDP Thursday at 7:04 PM
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
I raised this question before and I'll ask again. What is Bhutan good for? What does it have to offer China? Weigh that against how much money it wants every year in support. Calculate how much military equipment that money could afford. (I threw a figure out there, $10 billion can buy ~100 J-20.) In the end, is it to China's benefit to have Bhutan as an ally on China's bankroll? Or is it just a big, expensive F U gesture to India?

Politics mostly. I think $10b is a bit too much to value Bhutan, it also gives China a foothold in the mountain tops.
 

B.I.B.

Captain
Ambassador Bhadrakumar points in his blog today to this article by F. William Engdahl -
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- from which I quote the last paragraph:

If China was aware of this it is no wonder that the road builders were not provided with an armed escort.

The article hints of some possible Israeli involvement. Why would israel want to get involved?
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
If F. William Engdahl is right then China won by avoiding the outbreak of war. And if China was aware of such an Indian plan it might have decided to provide India with an opportunity to act near Bhutan and nowhere else to reduce the war if it were to break out despite all precautions and to enable it to influence Bhutan, receive a Bhutan ambassador, after the failure of the Indian scheme.

As I stated previously, a few km of road at the end of a very long and vulnerable supply chain doesn't make much difference.

But Bhutan coming out of India's embrace so that it is neutral and can extract maximum benefit from both India and China, is in China's strategic interest.

As China-India feud ebbs, tiny Bhutan reexamines its place in the world - The Washington Post

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Is Bhutan drawing closer to China, and what can India do about it?
SCMP

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ougoah

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As I stated previously, a few km of road at the end of a very long and vulnerable supply chain doesn't make much difference.

But Bhutan coming out of India's embrace so that it is neutral and can extract maximum benefit from both India and China, is in China's strategic interest.

In what particular way do you think that is in China's strategic interest. Not denying it though.
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
The article hints of some possible Israeli involvement. Why would israel want to get involved?

Oh I thought they said it was a grant. Anyway I am getting suspicious about Nikki Asian Review. It is the rumor mill of China related issues. And they turn attention to Pakistan as well, clearly from India's perspective and pretend to be neutral.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
In what particular way do you think that is in China's strategic interest. Not denying it though.

At the moment, Bhutan is deeply dependent on India, and has to follow what India says.

But an independent Bhutan would be like Nepal, which has the option to play off China and India to obtain the most gain. That is the optimal strategy for Bhutan.

And we can see Nepal cooperates with China on a whole host of issues.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Oh I thought they said it was a grant. Anyway I am getting suspicious about Nikki Asian Review. It is the rumor mill of China related issues. And they turn attention to Pakistan as well, clearly from India's perspective and pretend to be neutral.

Given how difficult it is to get any news on such delicate matters, I think this is the most authoritative reporting that we're likely to see.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
At the moment, Bhutan is deeply dependent on India, and has to follow what India says.

But an independent Bhutan would be like Nepal, which has the option to play off China and India to obtain the most gain. That is the optimal strategy for Bhutan.

And we can see Nepal cooperates with China on a whole host of issues.

Which issues have Nepal directly cooperated with China on, against forces that are countering China's progress and sovereignty?
 
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