I don't know if anyone else specifically pointed this out on this thread before, your first two paragraphs illustrate why the whole "China having a road through Doklam is a threat to India's 'chicken neck'" is a flimsy theory that doesn't make military sense.
India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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I don't know if anyone else specifically pointed this out on this thread before, your first two paragraphs illustrate why the whole "China having a road through Doklam is a threat to India's 'chicken neck'" is a flimsy theory that doesn't make military sense.
The previous commentary by CPPCC member Xu Guangyu (veteran of 1962 war, and prominent commentator on CCTV) suggested that a final ultimatum be delivered by the end of August or early September. My original assumption was that there would be no way Xi Jinping would meet with Modi with Indians troops on Chinese territory, so that for example, an 72 hour ultimatum for Indian troops to withdraw would be issued by 8/31 prior to the BRICS meeting on 9/3 - 9/5. More recent nidbits of information in the commentary this week suggested that China does not intend to deal with the matter with India during the BRICS meeting, and that it was unclear whether Modi would be coming to the BRICS meeting. Perhaps China has a full agenda that it does actually want to address with other BRICS countries, even India included, and that the border issue can be addressed afterwards. China is still pursuing all possible alternative options prior to issuing an ultimatum. We will see next week if they intend to bring the standoff to a head prior to BRICS, or until afterwards. In either case, I do not foresee this as a delaying tactic on China's part until winter.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
China is readying the old intermediate range nuclear missile DF4 with enough range to cover all India. Might as well expend the old missile. My guess is China will not spoil the BRIC meeting but after that all bet are off
Chinese People's Liberation Army Rocket Force Flight Tests Older DF-4 ICBM
China conducts a test of its DF-4 ICBM amid heightened tensions with India.
By
August 25, 2017
On Wednesday, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) carried out a flight test of a Dong Feng 4 (DF-4; known by the United States as the CSS-3) intercontinental-range ballistic missile, a U.S. government source with knowledge of China’s strategic weapons programs told The Diplomat.
The test was carried out from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, a common satellite and ballistic missile launch site, which is also known by the U.S. intelligence community as the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Centre. The site is in China’s Shanxi province.
The test of a DF-4 is notable since the missile is China’s oldest intercontinental-range system, with an estimated range of 5,500 to 7,000 kilometers — insufficient to strike targets in the continental United States apart from Alaska. The missile is a two-stage, liquid propellant missile that was first deployed in the mid-1970s. Today, few DF-4s are thought to be deployed, with the PLARF primarily relying on the DF-5 for intercontinental-range targeting.
It’s unclear if Wednesday’s launch featured a DF-4 based in a silo or in the more usual rollout launch configuration, where the missile would exit a hardened basing site before being erected, fueled, and launched.
Given that the DF-4 is no longer a primary component of the PLARF’s targeting, it’s also unclear what specific purpose Wednesday’s test was intended to serve. China has conducted multiple ballistic missile launches recently, but has mostly focused on its newer intermediate-range ballistic missiles, solid fuel missiles, and long-range ground-launched cruise missiles.
Wednesday’s test does suggest that China continues to rely on the DF-4 for certain targeting scenarios. While the missiles are aging and few are thought to remain operational, the DF-4 could serve as an important strike platform against targets in India, for example. (The PLARF’s newer, more advanced systems are likely assigned to U.S. targets.)
If there was a signaling motive behind Wednesday’s flight test, it could have been meant for India. For more than two months now, Chinese and Indian troops have been locked in a tense standoff over a piece of territory disputed between Bhutan and China in the Himalayas. Over these months, Chinese rhetoric has grown increasingly strident, with state-run media threatening conflict.
While the prospect of escalation does not appear to be imminent, a DF-4 launch would serve as a reminder of the nuclear stakes that will loom over any future India-China conflict.
Chinese People's Liberation Army Rocket Force Flight Tests Older DF-4 ICBM
China conducts a test of its DF-4 ICBM amid heightened tensions with India.
By
August 25, 2017
On Wednesday, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) carried out a flight test of a Dong Feng 4 (DF-4; known by the United States as the CSS-3) intercontinental-range ballistic missile, a U.S. government source with knowledge of China’s strategic weapons programs told The Diplomat.
The test was carried out from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, a common satellite and ballistic missile launch site, which is also known by the U.S. intelligence community as the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Centre. The site is in China’s Shanxi province.
The test of a DF-4 is notable since the missile is China’s oldest intercontinental-range system, with an estimated range of 5,500 to 7,000 kilometers — insufficient to strike targets in the continental United States apart from Alaska. The missile is a two-stage, liquid propellant missile that was first deployed in the mid-1970s. Today, few DF-4s are thought to be deployed, with the PLARF primarily relying on the DF-5 for intercontinental-range targeting.
It’s unclear if Wednesday’s launch featured a DF-4 based in a silo or in the more usual rollout launch configuration, where the missile would exit a hardened basing site before being erected, fueled, and launched.
Given that the DF-4 is no longer a primary component of the PLARF’s targeting, it’s also unclear what specific purpose Wednesday’s test was intended to serve. China has conducted multiple ballistic missile launches recently, but has mostly focused on its newer intermediate-range ballistic missiles, solid fuel missiles, and long-range ground-launched cruise missiles.
Wednesday’s test does suggest that China continues to rely on the DF-4 for certain targeting scenarios. While the missiles are aging and few are thought to remain operational, the DF-4 could serve as an important strike platform against targets in India, for example. (The PLARF’s newer, more advanced systems are likely assigned to U.S. targets.)
If there was a signaling motive behind Wednesday’s flight test, it could have been meant for India. For more than two months now, Chinese and Indian troops have been locked in a tense standoff over a piece of territory disputed between Bhutan and China in the Himalayas. Over these months, Chinese rhetoric has grown increasingly strident, with state-run media threatening conflict.
While the prospect of escalation does not appear to be imminent, a DF-4 launch would serve as a reminder of the nuclear stakes that will loom over any future India-China conflict.
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Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
India stationing troop on the border is not sign of strength as the Indian believe it
It is more of necessity because of the poor infrastructure on their side. so the necessity to stock up on troop and supply
Being so close to the border it will be the first target either by air or by long range missile. With the advance of cheap air burst and precision munition those troop are very vulnerable
It will be slaughter.
Not to mention it is very expensive to supply those troop.
China built all kind of road parallel to border but set back 200 km and built feeder road to the border to allow for rapid movement of troop and supply. Of course they must be station close to start of the road. They are out of reach of Indian artillery which mostly are tow type and again vulnerable to counter strike. Indian airforce operational readiness are dismal combine with limited supply of part and munition they will be running out of munition in the first week of fighting
In 62 China has long supply road since the only road is form Xinjiang and all supply must come from Xinjiang The road you see here hasn't been built. Now with railroad and highway from Lhasa to China inner province of Gansu. The road is much better layout and built
China also has extensive radar station monitoring the Indian airforce and ground troop. Plenty of forward bases with barrack and support system
This is indian guy who produce this video so disregard his comment
observes every movement in Siachen. plot suggests More
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I wouldn't bet on the Chinese radar sites having much survivability in a conflict. They are probably one of the few targets that India's Brahmos will be able to be used against effectively. Looking at the map, just imagine an Indian advance into Tibet, where China would be able to deploy its forces in an effective 'broadside' along the main highway, whereas the Indian troops would be lined up in series without ability to reinforce each or to cover the flanks. And the other map very clearly illustrates the terrain of Ladakh as being much more conducive to mechanized warfare.
Jura The idiot
General
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
I am not sure if IAF still exist at that time
Jura The idiot
General
now noticed a credible Russian blogger (if you think there's no such thing, quit reading now LOL) had summarized () the French article
Moscou demandé comme arbitre dans l'Himalaya
which I can't access without paying 5,20 EUR (LOL) so just briefly according to that Russian: some highly ranked Indian officials visited Moscow this week, asked the Russians
Moscou demandé comme arbitre dans l'Himalaya
which I can't access without paying 5,20 EUR (LOL) so just briefly according to that Russian: some highly ranked Indian officials visited Moscow this week, asked the Russians
- to mediate between China and India the Doklam conflict, and
- to influence the Chinese to soften their stance on
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Sounds like you're advocating nuclear war without exception.
Jura The idiot
General
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