India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan

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discspinner

Junior Member
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I think there are still a lot of people out there who are skeptical about actual fighting occurring. In part, I believe that this is because China has not been actively engaged in wars for so long that it is almost taken for granted. But let's have a look around us. US is always at war. Russia is at war. India and Pakistan never stopped fighting. The Middle East is in constant turmoil. And Africa is Africa. 'The world is not a peaceful place.'

There are also some of us, myself included, who know that if given another 30 years of peaceful development, that China would be far more secure in its position in the world, and that may be true. But I think we may be missing the point. China today, especially under Xi Jinping's concept of rejuvenation of Chinese civilization and the realization of a China dream, is a country founded on the religion of nationalism. That is what Chinese people are taught in schools and reinforced on a daily basis. Fundamental to this notion is the sanctity of territorial sovereignty.

In 30 years, India will not be any more lenient towards its China policy, and this is harbored in one key point. Indians will never agree to any border compromise with China because for a large portion of Indians in their strategic community, they do not believe that they should even have a border with China. They advocate for an independent Tibet. That is why their 'border negotiation positions' are so ridiculous, claiming both Arunachel Pradesh and Aksai Chin, even though the latter is a barren desert under Chinese control for over the past half century. Instead of making the obvious compromise of keeping what each country's soldiers fought and died for, the Indians continue to stall, with the end goal of hoping that one day, China will once again collapse onto itself in civil war, at which point India will be able to make its move. Ironically, China has equally given up reasoning with India, and appears to have been playing the same game of waiting to see India's 'chinkies' in its Northeastern regions declare their own independence. That is why the LAC persists without resolution.

Until now. As we all know, in times of crises there is opportunity. Contrary to what many on these forums believe, the fact is that over the past couple of years, Modi has jettisoned a lot of the goodwill that Western countries had had for India with eccentric and controversial policies (economic, religious) that are simply antithetical to many of the core beliefs that liberals or conservatives in Western countries alike hold fundamentally to be true. At the same time, many Western countries have come to terms with the rise of China and China's paramount importance in guaranteeing the Western economic system. Far from turning on China, it is more likely that countries will be jumping over themselves to make it a point to maintain good relationships with China should a conflict between India and China occur.

For there to be a war, each side has to believe that the other is making a mistake. I am not an expert in military matters, but having followed the developments in China's and India's military over the years, I believe the outcome is crystal clear. It will not be for another long time that China will be presented a chance such as this.
 
Figaro

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
discspinner said:
I think there are still a lot of people out there who are skeptical about actual fighting occurring. In part, I believe that this is because China has not been actively engaged in wars for so long that it is almost taken for granted. But let's have a look around us. US is always at war. Russia is at war. India and Pakistan never stopped fighting. The Middle East is in constant turmoil. And Africa is Africa. 'The world is not a peaceful place.'

There are also some of us, myself included, who know that if given another 30 years of peaceful development, that China would be far more secure in its position in the world, and that may be true. But I think we may be missing the point. China today, especially under Xi Jinping's concept of rejuvenation of Chinese civilization and the realization of a China dream, is a country founded on the religion of nationalism. That is what Chinese people are taught in schools and reinforced on a daily basis. Fundamental to this notion is the sanctity of territorial sovereignty.

In 30 years, India will not be any more lenient towards its China policy, and this is harbored in one key point. Indians will never agree to any border compromise with China because for a large portion of Indians in their strategic community, they do not believe that they should even have a border with China. They advocate for an independent Tibet. That is why their 'border negotiation positions' are so ridiculous, claiming both Arunachel Pradesh and Aksai Chin, even though the latter is a barren desert under Chinese control for over the past half century. Instead of making the obvious compromise of keeping what each country's soldiers fought and died for, the Indians continue to stall, with the end goal of hoping that one day, China will once again collapse onto itself in civil war, at which point India will be able to make its move. Ironically, China has equally given up reasoning with India, and appears to have been playing the same game of waiting to see India's 'chinkies' in its Northeastern regions declare their own independence. That is why the LAC persists without resolution.

Until now. As we all know, in times of crises there is opportunity. Contrary to what many on these forums believe, the fact is that over the past couple of years, Modi has jettisoned a lot of the goodwill that Western countries had had for India with eccentric and controversial policies (economic, religious) that are simply antithetical to many of the core beliefs that liberals or conservatives in Western countries alike hold fundamentally to be true. At the same time, many Western countries have come to terms with the rise of China and China's paramount importance in guaranteeing the Western economic system. Far from turning on China, it is more likely that countries will be jumping over themselves to make it a point to maintain good relationships with China should a conflict between India and China occur.

For there to be a war, each side has to believe that the other is making a mistake. I am not an expert in military matters, but having followed the developments in China's and India's military over the years, I believe the outcome is crystal clear. It will not be for another long time that China will be presented a chance such as this.
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I believe that this is because China has not been actively engaged in wars for so long that it is almost taken for granted
Does cross border shelling count as "war"? China could also fire artillery at Indian positions just like in training ... nothing really special here.
That is what Chinese people are taught in schools and reinforced on a daily basis
So India doesn't do the same? Geez, it seems like you're specifically focusing on the negatives of Chinese nationalism ... you do realize the BJP was founded on Hindu ultra-nationalism right?
In 30 years, India will not be any more lenient towards its China policy, and this is harbored in one key point.
India doesn't have a choice. China's economy is around 6 times larger and has a vastly superior military. For India to be "less lenient" towards China, there would be a tit-for-tat approach. And I'm curious as to why you've used the word "lenient"; the way I see it is China has already been extremely "lenient" towards India especially given the latter's transgressions.
China will once again collapse onto itself in civil war
India's countless class/religious distinctions, an burgeoning population coupled with a lack of resources, and an unstable government will collapse itself into a civil war way before China does.
Ironically, China has equally given up reasoning with India, and appears to have been playing the same game of waiting to see India's 'chinkies' in its Northeastern regions declare their own independence.
What do you mean by that rather derogatory term : Assamese? If China was that hell-bent on Assam independence, it could finance and smuggle weaponry to separatist forces. I seriously doubt that China is factory a break-up of India into their geopolitical strategy.
Modi has jettisoned a lot of the goodwill that Western countries had had for India with eccentric and controversial policies
Western "goodwill" will not save India in a conflict with China. These Western countries will never support India in any war because of their own economic dependency on China. Remember, the latter is integrated into the global economy like no other, while the former is still at the beginning of its development. To think that Western countries are going to impose crippling sanctions on China or militarily support India is out of the question; even the United States (China's greatest geopolitical foe) is unlikely to support any anti-Chinese operation.
...but having followed the developments in China's and India's military over the years, I believe the outcome is crystal clear. It will not be for another long time that China will be presented a chance such as this.
If your crystal ball involves India catching up to China militarily, then you're sorely mistaken. Contrary to what some think, the gap is actually widening between China and India militarily than shrinking. And what chance are you alluding to? Are you referring to a military operation to attack India while it is weak? Please clarify.
 
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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
the question asked Aug 25, 2017 @ 01:37 AM
Has India Called China's Bluff Over Doklam?
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While the world's attention continues to focus on a combination of Brexit, U.S. domestic politics and North Korea, the news from the Himalayas remains tense. Maybe the mere thought that China and India might actually going to war still seems implausible to many outside the region, but the obvious diplomatic routes out of the Doklam standoff are closing fast. Just last week an absurdly racist video broadcast on Chinese state television revealed–if anything–a casual disregard for the dangers of treating large, powerful states as a kind of road-kill on China's rapid rise.

To begin with, the problem seemed like a misunderstanding, but at each point where either side might have made overtures towards a de-escalation, the situation has merely worsened. The Indian government has said little, suggesting they feel the deployment of their troops conveys pretty clearly what their intentions are. Whereas the Chinese have been very vocal, denouncing India's move as a provocation from which a failure to withdraw will merely oblige China to administer a disciplinary slap, limited in scope, but overwhelming in effect.

Sticks and Stones

Curiously though, recent days have seen the Himalayan standoff at Doklam take a back seat to wider strategic issues as another video emerged of Chinese and Indian troops engaged in what looks like a mass brawl on the shore of Pangong Lake in Ladakh. The encounter was surprisingly violent and showed clearly injured men being dragged away after being pelted with stones, but according to some seasoned experts on the region this level of violence is '
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.'

It is not clear who released the video, or quite frankly, which side caught the worst of it, but if anything it indicates that neither side is accustomed to backing away. Furthermore, it reminds both sides that the contested border is long and unstable along its entirety, meaning that a dispute in one region is not obliged to stay there. Which raises the stakes of any military effort China might engage in.

Nevertheless the perception remains that India is strong and well positioned in and around Doklam, while not quite so secure on other parts of the border. Indeed, this is one reason why India are highly unlikely to concede anything to China in this region, given that the main reason why they are relatively well prepared is simply that the Siliguri corridor is strategically sensitive. Furthermore, China may be powerful, but deploying serious forces in Doklam would be hazardous given that India both controls the heights and can mobilise three mountain divisions numbering upwards of 50,000 troops in total, all of which are already deployed close by.

Indeed, the threat of this current incursion by China into Bhutanese territory is likely to be a key reason why there are so many Indian troops close by, so it would have been strange if they had not acted exactly as they have done. In historical terms it would be comparable to France ignoring German troops in Belgium. Despite China's public bravado, it is not at all clear that they would be able either to push Indian troops back or prevent the situation from escalating. Which raises the question of what else China might do to put pressure on India?

Sure enough, yesterday saw
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for building a new road near Pangong Lake in Ladakh, creating an interesting symmetry of grievance that will facilitate further equivocation, but perhaps also offers a way out for both sides. If India decides not to build the new road in Ladakh (presuming it was ever going to be built, of course) then perhaps China may decide its own road construction in territory Bhutan claims could be postponed for now? The speech also made reference to China's 'all-weather' alliance with Pakistan, which is clearly intended to press a few raw Indian nerves, but also obliquely responds to Donald Trump's criticisms of Pakistan and courting of India over Afghanistan a few days ago.

Short of military action, China could also take a similar approach to that which it has taken with South Korea over their consent to the deployment of U.S. THAAD missiles, which has been to launch an unofficial trade war against its smaller neighbour's commercial interests. This effort continues to rumble on with the
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from South Korean retailer Lotte being the latest obvious example.

When it comes to India, however, China would find such efforts self defeating. South Korea maintains a sizeable trade surplus with China so is vulnerable to this kind of pressure. India, on the other hand, sustains a sizeable trade deficit with China–something that attracts occasional political controversy in India–which means that China has a lot more to lose in the short run. It should come as no surprise therefore that Chinese media has been
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, as this would inevitably 'harm both sides'.

No Headlines

Pulling all these disparate elements together it looks increasingly like China has taken a realistic look at its options and decided to scale things back a bit. All the while, India has said little, but held firm, and now
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. Difficult not to notice amid all the megaphone diplomacy that a judiciously worded speech by Donald Trump subtly altered the strategic landscape, which in turn further clarified the value of Modi's White House embrace in June. Whatever happens next, I suspect Doklam may not make the headlines again anytime soon.
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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
let me see ...
discspinner said:
PLAAF will gain air superiority over the conflict zone within a couple of weeks. Afterwards, it will be a one sided massacre of India's ground forces. That's how the kill ratio is going to be 1:10 (yes I made it up, but you get the point).
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well my post in which I reacted to your claim Yesterday at 11:50 AM
discspinner said:
... There will be thousands of KIA/wounded, 10x that on the Indian side. ...
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was Yesterday at 2:52 PM
Jura said:
OK

some time ago
Aug 8, 2017
and assuming the deployment didn't change, I'm unsure how you would achieve ten times higher casualties on the Opfor side while you would go up, then down the terrain which can be pretty easily blocked;
I mean some sort of envelopment is needed to inflict incomparably higher casualties on the scale you mentioned which I assume was, well, full scale, Brigade and up

now perhaps some high-tech enthusiast will tell us the positions can be obliterated with precision-guided munitions or something ... but anyway this would require counter-battery and air force operations of the Opfor to fail first

it's scary anyway huh
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I rephrase: Opfor would have to get encircled first to suffer ten for one casualties;
it would require cutting off let's say Division-size force in the mountainous terrain (which is the turf of said force):
Jura said:
...
s6BnC.jpg
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EDIT so I still don't know how you would achieve your 10:1 score
 
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O

omarbuzz

Banned Idiot
Registered Member
Doklam: After more than 2 months China has not yet counter-attacked!
China may be stronger than India on paper but it is the quality of the leader that matters. Modi >> Xi!
Xi should send half the PLA to Doklam. Perhaps 1 million soldiers of the PLA could defeat a few hundreds Indian soldiers.
Is the PLA good only for marching?
 
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