India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan

Zool said:

Perhaps. But I don't think so. Rather, I think you are underestimating the current low in the relationship between India-China, the increased geopolitical and economic gains China stands to make (one could argue at India's expense) if its regional programs continue on course, and the planning that goes on in a countries security establishment with regard to its rivals.

Click to expand...

Perhaps you misunderstood me, I am not saying it is beyond the Indians to risk open war to try and screw with China, what I find had to believe is that the Indians would start a fight they'd know they would loose just to score some sympathy points in the US and elsewhere.

The gains just don't come anywhere close to making the costs worthwhile.

I did not say India 'concocted' this flashpoint. China is after all building said road in the Doklam zone adjacent a non-finalized boarder with Bhutan. But India has, in my opinion, seized this as an opportunity, as I laid out previous. Its a smart move and not at all beyond the scope of Indian establishment.

Click to expand...

Any India has been building military fortifications in disputed territory themselves.

Road building is and has always been a pathetically weak excuse for this stand off, and the deafening silence from the west regarding this issue speaks volumes.

Despite the massive bias in favour of India in all things concerning China and India, not one western official has publically supported India's actions.

If the west is unwilling to voice support for India, which would cost them nothing now, what makes you think they will be willing to endure real economic pain to help India later if and when the Chinese response militarily?

India is a sizeable and growing market and consumer base, full stop. Additionally China has a substantial trade surplus with India (somewhere on the order of $45 Billion USD), meaning conflict and economic fallout between the two would inflict greater damage on China than on India.

Click to expand...

$45bn might be a lot for you or I, but for China, it is a trivial amount, especially when national security is concerned.

Besides, India doesn't have all that trade with China just to do China any favours. It does so because that trade massively benefits their people and economy. Thus, stopping that trade will hurt their economy just as much if not more so than China's.

To call a 'massive stretch', the prospects of the US, Japan and parts of Europe joining a sanctions regime against China resulting from a China initiated firefight to clear Indian Forces from Doklam, seems naive to me. No offense, but this is the world we live in. And I will explain:

Sanctions resulting from conflict or issues of national security are exempt from WTO challenges and rulings. It is a way for countries, particularly the NATO Block, to cause economic damage to rivals, targeting select industries where they can block market competion as a result, while leaving alone other sectors that they still need to transact with. Hence the term... Targeted Sanctions.

Russia/Crimea is a perfect example, where Russian LNG was left alone to protect European energy concerns. The same could and likely would be done towards China, helping boost domestic sectors for those countries initiating the targeted sanctions. It is an extremely logical possible objective for India in the current scenario, versus a full out war, even if limited to the boarder regions.

Click to expand...

My conclusions are based on economic and political realities, while suggestions that the US and EU would sanction China are based purely on ideological wishful thinking, which is more naive?

Just because you are fighting a war does not mean others can put sanctions on you. Is the US under sanctions for their actions in Syria or Saudi Arabia under sanctions for Yemen?

Do you think anyone can impose sanctions on them and not face repercussions and costs? It would be the same regarding sanctions against China.

A Chinese military response to a clear prior military incursion by India over a boarder India itself has recognised does not make China the equivalent of Russia in your Crimea analogy, it makes India the Russian aggressor!

Besides, sanctions hurt both the targeted nation and the ones imposing it.

The US and EU could impose sanctions on Russia because it is economically weaker, less well interegrated to the world economy and the west has broad consensus that what it did was fundamentally wrong, so was willing and able to take the economic hit of imposing sanctions.

China is many times larger economically than Russia and a key market and supplier for the US and western economies. The costs of imposing sanctions would be many times higher than on Russia, and China would have leeway to impose counter sanctions to hit back at the west.

Add to that the fact that it is India who is clearly in the wrong here, and I just don't see the US and EU willing to risk crashing their own and world economy just to help India out of a situation they deliberately got themselves into.

cont.

I don't know who's 'style' you would call it. As I said, it was my suggestion for a way to deal with the standoff in an even handed manner that can be presented internationally to avoid gunfire and the possible Indian objective of sanctions and further China containment groupings. There are plenty of options to be sure. I've gamed out my view of Indian intentions and the likely results from Chinese action & inaction as I see it. What is your view and suggested strategy?

Click to expand...

I just don't see how what you are suggesting would make any sort of a difference. If the Indians won't listen to an official Chinese FM spokesperson's word, what makes you think they will heed the same message delivered via a newspaper ad/article or TV show interview?

The fundamental problem with this issue is that the Indians are stubbornly and foolishly ignoring what China's is saying. Saying the same message in a different way is unlikely to change India's attitude in any meaningful way.

OBOR by definition of the program requires partner nations and their support. Both for transit of goods along the routes in their territory and purchase of those goods from China in the first place. You don't think an international grouping targeting trade with China, as a result of conflict pinned on China, would scuttle OBOR?

Click to expand...

And OBOR has massive support from the required partner nations. It's just none of those partner nations are in the US, EU or anywhere else that might even consider a sanctions regime against China.

The countries participating in OBOR are benefitting massively from being part of that programme, and you forget that once we cut out the western media spin and censorship, the reality on the ground is that India is far more aggressive and expansionist on the ground than China when it comes to boarders (which is why it still has boarder disputes with just about every one of its independent neighbours); and loves to meddle in the internal affairs of its neighbours for its own benefit (often to the detriment of its neighbors).

Far from jumping on a western bandwagon to sanction China, most of India's neighbours who are part of OBOR would secretly (maybe even openly) cheer China giving India a good bloody nose and putting them back a peg or two.

Agreed, as I said in my post above, China is providing plenty of time and opportunity to India, so it does not come off as an aggressor. You and I both know under the right circumstances, even with India entering Chinese territory, China could and would be painted as the aggressor with all the ramifications that brings.

Click to expand...

Paying lip service and some empty supportive words for India that ultimately has zero costs is one thing, putting your own economic prosperity on the line is something else entirely.

While I have no doubt the western media and western governments will spin any Chinese military response to India to make China out as the bad guy, I also seriously doubt any of those said nations will be willing to put their money where they mouth is on this issue.

Back to my earlier request though, please share your view of India's motives, objectives, and what you think China should do and the possible results from those actions/inactions. I don't work for GOI so I don't know for sure, and it makes for interesting discussion to game it out.

Click to expand...

Well, that's THE question isn't it?

Part of what makes this whole thing so strange is precisely the motive and end-game for the Indians.

As I said before, I really can't see what their end-game is, and thus far no one else has been able to offer a credible one either (no offense intended, but I don't think your suggestion of India trying to get beat up by China to try and trick the US, EU and others to impose sanctions on China to destroy OBOR really works conceptually or realistically).

The Indian government hardly has a shining past record of well-thought out and executed long term planning, and given the massive and obvious flaws in the location and justification for the incursion and the glaring lack of any viable exit plan, on balance of probabilities, I think this is something the Indians stubble into rather than planned.

The reported rumours floating on Indian forums that this was all started by some jumped-up local commanders would fit.

So some local commander(s) massively over-stepped the mark. But instead of reprimanding him/them, and perhaps sensing an opportunity from China's initial low-key response, the Indians decided to double down.

They 'won' that first bet because China really doesn't want a war, so didn't start shooting immediately.

The problem is that India's politicians and media enjoyed this little middle finger to China a little too much and got carried away waving the nationalistic flag playing to the back row that they now find it impossible to back down.

All these latest Indian rumours of Trump wanting to stand shoulder to shoulder with India in a fight against China and close contact and intricate planning and co-ordination between Modi and Trump looks more and more like the wild flailings of a drowning man grapsing at any straw to try to stay afloat.

With the backdrop of hardening Chinese words and stead troop massings in the area as well as other signs of serious military preparations I saw in Southern China when I was there a few weeks back, it looks more and more like the Indians are blundering into a war without realising it.

plawolf said:

Perhaps you misunderstood me, I am not saying it is beyond the Indians to risk open war to try and screw with China, what I find had to believe is that the Indians would start a fight they'd know they would loose just to score some sympathy points in the US and elsewhere.

Click to expand...

The thing is, maybe they think they can easily win? i know guys at Indians forums are just normal peasants, but all of them are using the terms towards China like paper dragon.
Just read the Indian defence forum, there is so much bullshit circling around...

The goverment is more rational, but are we sure about that? There is so much propaganda and confidence in the Indian news and society...
Maybe they have believed that they could win.

ILikeChina said:

How China can defend against India's brahmos ? At Indians forum they think, India is going to use these missiles to destroy chinese logistics and so on.

Click to expand...

By retaliating with their own missiles which are longer range, plentiful compared to brahmos, cheaper, carries bigger warhead, more variants of chinese cruise missiles. Hmmm what else. Brahmos range is actually not impressive at low altitudes. Ask yourself why most nations more than capable of developing their crusie missiles, don't use ramjets. The range figures for brahmos are for air launched or high altitudes which make them easier to shoot down. Brahmos is actually not as much of a wonder-weapon as people think it is.

Chinese leaders don't seem like they want any shooting wars with anyone until they develop next gen weapons. Such as, quatum radars, scramjet/ramjet aa missiles, emp weapons, DEWs etc. And also only after they field top level weapons in significant enough numbers. After all, history taught the chinese that all political power does grow out of the barrel of a gun. Until the savages can be civilised, it's best to adopt aggressive military stances against them whoever they may be.

ILikeChina said:

The thing is, maybe they think they can easily win? i know guys at Indians forums are just normal peasants, but all of them are using the terms towards China like paper dragon.
Just read the Indian defence forum, there is so much bullshit circling around...

The goverment is more rational, but are we sure about that? There is so much propaganda and confidence in the Indian news and society...
Maybe they have believed that they could win.

Click to expand...

It's always the ones with misguided arrogance who fall the hardest. These clowns should be ignored. A man who is content with his self-confidence, almost never needs to express it. Their trash talking is a good indicator of how weak they really are, at least mentally. The indian military is barely a match for pakistan. China's is geared towards defending against competent western militaries.

ILikeChina said:

How China can defend against India's brahmos ? At Indians forum they think, India is going to use these missiles to destroy chinese logistics and so on.

Click to expand...

One of the way to defend against Brahmos is to destroy them before they take off from the ground.

You might argue that Brahmos will fire first. But after that there will be hundreds of missile fired from China side, what will India use to defend all these attacks?

SteelBird said:

One of the way to defend against Brahmos is to destroy them before they take off from the ground.

You might argue that Brahmos will fire first. But after that there will be hundreds of missile fired from China side, what will India use to defend all these attacks?

Click to expand...

That is if they have hundreds in the first place.
Logistically speaking transporting hundreds of missile into a highly nested revene in the middle of nowhere is tactically absurd.
Saving face for the sake of saving it shows that PRC has not shown any growth from the 19th century.

SamuraiBlue said:

That is if they have hundreds in the first place.
Logistically speaking transporting hundreds of missile into a highly nested revene in the middle of nowhere is tactically absurd.
Saving face for the sake of saving it shows that PRC has not shown any growth from the 19th century.

Click to expand...

Uhhhh... the idea was a proposed hypothetical response (by one of our forum members) to a crazy idea concocted by Indians on an Indian forum (see the quotes below).

Why are you taking it as a something that the Chinese government has done?

ILikeChina said:

How China can defend against India's brahmos ? At Indians forum they think, India is going to use these missiles to destroy chinese logistics and so on.

Click to expand...

SteelBird said:

One of the way to defend against Brahmos is to destroy them before they take off from the ground.

You might argue that Brahmos will fire first. But after that there will be hundreds of missile fired from China side, what will India use to defend all these attacks?

Click to expand...

For your information, the Chinese government has not done anything rash. They still insist on peacefully resolving the incident. They still focus on diplomatic solutions. No facing saving whatsoever.

SamuraiBlue said:

That is if they have hundreds in the first place.
Logistically speaking transporting hundreds of missile into a highly nested revene in the middle of nowhere is tactically absurd.
Saving face for the sake of saving it shows that PRC has not shown any growth from the 19th century.

Click to expand...

If not hundreds, then in the thousands. I think you are confused (again) on how missiles work. You seem to think that all the missiles need to be brought into the conflict area for them to be used. You see, missiles have range; Chinese cruise missiles have ranges sometimes well over 1,000km (for example, >1,500km for CJ-10). They can be fired from basically anywhere within 1,000-1,500km of Donglang, an area that I would not consider "a highly nested revene (sic)". Chinese jets can of course, can also bring more missiles from afar and add their combat range to the missile range. And guess what else is less than 1,000km away? The ocean. Chinese destroyers can fire onto the location as well since the area is about 500km from the sea.

Pretty hefty firepower for a country in the 19th century, wouldn't you say? LOL By the way, who told you that the PRC was around in the 19th century? Japanese textbook? LOL If I were a militarily occupied little island with my constitution written under foreign supervision, I would certainly not talk about "saving face" to anyone else for any reason.

this weekend I saw here posts claiming Indians would face logistic issues when the weather worsens OK so let me show you something:

to the map described in (the closed thread)
#159 Jura, Jul 13, 2017
I now quickly added the position of the Bhutanese (in cyan) and Indian (in magenta, twice) military installations which are permanent (permanent as in 'a building' LOL of course they could be bombed, actually taken down by LACMs to keep up with the most recent posts here hahaha); it's based on what wikipamia.org shows but I'm not going to spend time on a new map

the question is where are the nearest Chinese permanent installations in that area