You seem to have an anger management problem, my post was to sound you off to n what Yodello is up to and you have to make it personal. Well my friend thank you for accolade in exposing there is an alien among us and by the way how is the weather in Mars.
India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think you are giving India's leaders far too much credit to suggest they concocted this whole flashpoint just to force China to give them a spanking so they can play the victim card.
The suggested economic costs would simply not materialise because India is far too insignificant a market and economy to be able to cause China any meaningful economic pain.
The prospects of the US, Europe or others doing serious damage to their own economies just to punish China for responding to a clearly illegal move by Indian is also a massive stretch to say the least.
The eerily similar messages to 62 you are hearing from Beijing are China playing their PR game.
China will not adopt an American style PR blitz because that has never been their style.
China has been laying the PR and diplomatic ground work for a direct military response from day one in such a way that they could take the military option tomorrow if it suited them and no one could claim with a straight face China didn't give Indian fair warning before hand.
The OBOR initiative has always been a Chinese project with neither funding or support required from any foreign country other than those it goes through.
Since the likes of the US, Japan and EU have never and are not contributing partners to the project, their opposition will have no real impact on the project.
India will have to covertly directly attack OBOR to cause it any real issues. While India would certainly have the capability to do that; would they have the will to take the risk of discovery and face the harsh consequences of them?
Those are all things Chinese strategists would be gaming out to find the optimal Chinese response.
The Chinese government doesn't like to make knee-jerk reactions, and prefer to take their time with important decisions to make sure they have considered and devised counters for all the eventualities they can before arriving at their final decision.
If only the Indian government did the same we wouldn't be faced with this mess.
Zool
Junior Member
Perhaps. But I don't think so. Rather, I think you are underestimating the current low in the relationship between India-China, the increased geopolitical and economic gains China stands to make (one could argue at India's expense) if its regional programs continue on course, and the planning that goes on in a countries security establishment with regard to its rivals.
I did not say India 'concocted' this flashpoint. China is after all building said road in the Doklam zone adjacent a non-finalized boarder with Bhutan. But India has, in my opinion, seized this as an opportunity, as I laid out previous. Its a smart move and not at all beyond the scope of Indian establishment.
India is a sizeable and growing market and consumer base, full stop. Additionally China has a substantial trade surplus with India (somewhere on the order of $45 Billion USD), meaning conflict and economic fallout between the two would inflict greater damage on China than on India.
To call a 'massive stretch', the prospects of the US, Japan and parts of Europe joining a sanctions regime against China resulting from a China initiated firefight to clear Indian Forces from Doklam, seems naive to me. No offense, but this is the world we live in. And I will explain:
Sanctions resulting from conflict or issues of national security are exempt from WTO challenges and rulings. It is a way for countries, particularly the NATO Block, to cause economic damage to rivals, targeting select industries where they can block market competion as a result, while leaving alone other sectors that they still need to transact with. Hence the term... Targeted Sanctions.
Russia/Crimea is a perfect example, where Russian LNG was left alone to protect European energy concerns. The same could and likely would be done towards China, helping boost domestic sectors for those countries initiating the targeted sanctions. It is an extremely logical possible objective for India in the current scenario, versus a full out war, even if limited to the boarder regions.
However you wish to term it, it is historically the same pattern of warnings from China, using similar rhetoric, which lead up to the 1962 conflict, with India ignoring them all the way. Those who don't learn from history and all that...
I don't know who's 'style' you would call it. As I said, it was my suggestion for a way to deal with the standoff in an even handed manner that can be presented internationally to avoid gunfire and the possible Indian objective of sanctions and further China containment groupings. There are plenty of options to be sure. I've gamed out my view of Indian intentions and the likely results from Chinese action & inaction as I see it. What is your view and suggested strategy?
OBOR by definition of the program requires partner nations and their support. Both for transit of goods along the routes in their territory and purchase of those goods from China in the first place. You don't think an international grouping targeting trade with China, as a result of conflict pinned on China, would scuttle OBOR?
As I said, in my view, India does not need to directly attack OBOR covertly or otherwise. The current Doklam standoff is India's opening shot. How China handles it dictates a hit or miss.
Agreed, as I said in my post above, China is providing plenty of time and opportunity to India, so it does not come off as an aggressor. You and I both know under the right circumstances, even with India entering Chinese territory, China could and would be painted as the aggressor with all the ramifications that brings.
They are taking a shot at a rival who they see as taking away regional influence, trade and blocking them on a myriad of issues like NSG and supporting arch nemesis Pakistan. As much as I see them in the wrong here (entering Chinese territory with armed forces on behalf of a third party) I can still see the logic and value from their perspective.
Back to my earlier request though, please share your view of India's motives, objectives, and what you think China should do and the possible results from those actions/inactions. I don't work for GOI so I don't know for sure, and it makes for interesting discussion to game it out.
What? That's all you got? I reply to you base on what you typed, I challenge you to present the evidence to support what you said, I guess when such evidence does not exist, personal attack is next.
Right... there are 7 billion people on planet earth, but yeah I might just be that 1 single idiot lawmaker from HK. If you are that lucky then maybe time to buy a lottery.
I am sure China's leaders are doing their due diligence but around here there has been an unfortunate proliferation of Chinese fanboy chest thumping to the point of embrace of China threat propaganda, perhaps some earnest some cynical, while analysis of India's military capabilities are sorely lacking.
Though Hendrik 2000 only quoted parts of this writeup analyzing Chinese forces it is just as interesting to read the other parts analyzing Indian forces.
I hope Chinese people and leaders remember this and work on long term projects to further split up India by supporting, financing, and arming separatist movements within India. They should also involve themselves with bilateral matters between India and Pakistan, just like India is doing here with Bhutan and China. China can increase support for Pakistan and their claims in Kashmir. See how the Indians react to that. A country of lynch mobs should not be trusted to act with civility and class. The online reactions to this matter is hugely supportive of India without knowing the bare facts thanks to the PR and support from Indian netizens. No other country has officially stated anything as of yet despite overall global disapproval of China's actions in SCS. Everyone is watching carefully and the silence shows that the leadership around the world do not necessary think India's actions here are justified or defensible.
China is more than happy to wait it out and not fire any shots which I hope they understand is the appropriate line of action. Let everyone watch this and let the Indians remain as trespassers, officially declaring it so. China should just keep officially whinging. It will not hurt their image in the minds of people who matter. Those people already understand how easily it would be for China to win a small or large scale military conflict with India. Sun Tzu supposedly encourage one to act weak when strong. What better opportunity to do so and make China seem weak in the minds of all the idiots around the world who don't amount to much themselves. What use is respect from these parasites? Meanwhile, China works at financing separatists in India and assisting Nepal and Pakistan in their efforts against India. The leaders of these people obviously have shown themselves to be an enemy of China or slaves to less visible powers.
China is more than happy to wait it out and not fire any shots which I hope they understand is the appropriate line of action. Let everyone watch this and let the Indians remain as trespassers, officially declaring it so. China should just keep officially whinging. It will not hurt their image in the minds of people who matter. Those people already understand how easily it would be for China to win a small or large scale military conflict with India. Sun Tzu supposedly encourage one to act weak when strong. What better opportunity to do so and make China seem weak in the minds of all the idiots around the world who don't amount to much themselves. What use is respect from these parasites? Meanwhile, China works at financing separatists in India and assisting Nepal and Pakistan in their efforts against India. The leaders of these people obviously have shown themselves to be an enemy of China or slaves to less visible powers.
How China can defend against India's brahmos ? At Indians forum they think, India is going to use these missiles to destroy chinese logistics and so on.
bluewater2012
Junior Member
It doesn't really help China image an bit when Western medias kept on selectively repeating India own narrative that it's intervenening on the behalf of Bhutan request for more than an month already, unless China PR campaign can somehow change the narrative in which she is currently doing by stating the facts on her own website. An silly suggestion I heard today and I really hope China and the PLA don't really take this approach.
The suggestion is that in the coming months near the end of the year, the winter solace will bring big snowstorms to the area, with India lacking logistic support, combine with heavy snowfall and severe coldness weather in the area, Mother Nature would help force back the Indian personal without PLA boots on the ground. This way there would be no war and avoid any losses of face on both side.
The suggestion is that in the coming months near the end of the year, the winter solace will bring big snowstorms to the area, with India lacking logistic support, combine with heavy snowfall and severe coldness weather in the area, Mother Nature would help force back the Indian personal without PLA boots on the ground. This way there would be no war and avoid any losses of face on both side.
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