Ideal chinese carrier thread

[Jeff Head]

2015, 2017, does not matter for a nation that's been around for 5000 years and looking at the long run. The important thing is that they apparently have made a decision.

Agreed that in the long run a couple of years is not going to make much difference...except you will see other nations use that time to buid in response themselves ie. South Korea and Japan among others.

Not much being said about it...but, IMHO, in the region there is a significant naval modernization and even naval arms race underway in this regard.

 

[panzerkom]

Agreed that in the long run a couple of years is not going to make much difference...except you will see other nations use that time to buid in response themselves ie. South Korea and Japan among others.

Not much being said about it...but, IMHO, in the region there is a significant naval modernization and even naval arms race underway in this regard.

Well, at this point, both the Japanese and South Koreans are still ahead of China in terms of naval aviation -- the Japanese with the Hyuga and the South Koreans with the Dokdo. If the new Chinese carriers were indeed intended to be deployed to the South China Sea, I'd imagine the Vietnamese and Filipinos to be more worried.

 

[Jeff Head]

Well, at this point, both the Japanese and South Koreans are still ahead of China in terms of naval aviation -- the Japanese with the Hyuga and the South Koreans with the Dokdo. If the new Chinese carriers were indeed intended to be deployed to the South China Sea, I'd imagine the Vietnamese and Filipinos to be more worried.

See more info at my WorldWideAircraftCarrier site for the:

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I am well aware of the capabilities of both carriers...but neither of those classes will compare to what the Chinese ar e proposing in their new indigenous carriers, or the former Varyag for that matter.

Until you see F-35s on the decks of those carriers, neither of them can come close to comparing with a wing of SU-27s or anything similar flying off the decks of these Chinese carriers.

My guess is, if this becomes reality, you may well see provisions for the F-35s on the decks of both the South Korean and Japanese carriers. Though it may take significant refit to be able to actually logistically support and maintain them in the hangar spaces.

 

[panzerkom]

Jeff, the Varyag still has no propulsion system, right? Or at least no one has ever spotted one being fitted to the hulk.

 

[Jeff Head]

Jeff, the Varyag still has no propulsion system, right? Or at least no one has ever spotted one being fitted to the hulk.

We do not know that it has no propulsion system. It spent considerable time in very expensive dry dock, and it has been pier side to very large cranes for a long time.

Propuslion could easily have been refitted...but we just do not know.

Given the amount of money the PLAN has spent in refitting the vessel in areas that we know of, including that time in dry dock, including the very large logistical facilities they have built next to the vessel, and including the flight deck being prepped with a zinc-chromate surface and then the non-skid surface, it would not be unrealistic whatsoever to presume that the PLAN either already has done significant work interior to the vessel with the propulsion, or yet may do so.

Time will tell.

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[panzerkom]

I've read your page, Jeff. It's very informative. Thank you.

But I still think it is next to impossible to install a propulsion system capable of powering the Varyag in complete secrecy. I mean it would be tough to hide 2-deck high boilers if they kept the original steam turbine design; or to a lesser extent, 60'x40'x40' 2-stroke marine diesel engines if they are converting to diesel.

 

[Jeff Head]

I've read your page, Jeff. It's very informative. Thank you.

But I still think it is next to impossible to install a propulsion system capable of powering the Varyag in complete secrecy. I mean it would be tough to hide 2-deck high boilers if they kept the original steam turbine design; or to a lesser extent, 60'x40'x40' 2-stroke marine diesel engines if they are converting to diesel.

Well, nothing can be done in true, complete secrecy.

The question is, could it be done and be kept from the press. I believe in China, it could have been...but time will tell.

 

[crobato]

Agreed that in the long run a couple of years is not going to make much difference...except you will see other nations use that time to buid in response themselves ie. South Korea and Japan among others.

Not much being said about it...but, IMHO, in the region there is a significant naval modernization and even naval arms race underway in this regard.

Japan is constrained by its own constitution and to purchase fighters from outside its a very expensive proposition. S. Korea faces the cost proposition as well. On the other hand, China will build their own warplanes for this, and being a jobs subsidy makes it easier for politicians to hand out a check.

Anytime you have a nation with a defense industry of its own, vs. a nation that has to buy its equipment from outside, its much easier, politically, to approve a program.

Do note the article is Asahi Shinbun. Its a reputable newspaper but its not the lion's mouth like Xinhua. The years stated maybe subject to change or reporting error as per the actual account, which has not been officially reported yet.

 

[Jeff Head]

Japan is constrained by its own constitution and to purchase fighters from outside its a very expensive proposition. S. Korea faces the cost proposition as well. On the other hand, China will build their own warplanes for this, and being a jobs subsidy makes it easier for politicians to hand out a check.

Anytime you have a nation with a defense industry of its own, vs. a nation that has to buy its equipment from outside, its much easier, politically, to approve a program.

Do note the article is Asahi Shinbun. Its a reputable newspaper but its not the lion's mouth like Xinhua. The years stated maybe subject to change or reporting error as per the actual account, which has not been officially reported yet.

Agree with all you said. But Japan is capable of producing aircraft if they want, and they certainly could change...or, more likely...stretch their constitution for a time if they feel the need.

Either way, after looking hard at the two platforms (Dokdo and Hyuga) I do not believe either one, even if outfitted with F-35s, would be as capable as the Varyag or what the Chinese will probably produce with their indigenous designs.

Capable vessels, no doubt, but really not in the same class as a Varyag or larger sized carrier.

They would either compliment US forces, or have to build something bigger themselves. Not likely IMHO for S. Korea...but a possibility for Japan in a few years.

All of that is, of course, simply my own opinion.

 

[crobato]

Agree with all you said. But Japan is capable of producing aircraft if they want, and they certainly could change...or, more likely...stretch their constitution for a time if they feel the need.

Either way, after looking hard at the two platforms (Dokdo and Hyuga) I do not believe either one, even if outfitted with F-35s, would be as capable as the Varyag or what the Chinese will probably produce with their indigenous designs.

Capable vessels, no doubt, but really not in the same class as a Varyag or larger sized carrier.

They would either compliment US forces, or have to build something bigger themselves. Not likely IMHO for S. Korea...but a possibility for Japan in a few years.

All of that is, of course, simply my own opinion.

They don't actually have the capability to build the aircraft they want. The F-2 is not a carrier fighter by far and the carrier F-16 project have been tanked decades ago. Furthermore, the plane requires import of vital components from the US. For the cost of developing a new carrier fighter, they might as well buy JSF VTOLs.

Changing the Constitution would be difficult because there is a lot of opposition to this, although the topic has been brought up. Before they can even begin the Constitutional changes that would allow them to build a full carrier, they have to make the Constitutional changes that would even allow the Navy to participate in long distance missions. So far they're already gritting their teeth by the fact they cannot even go to a Somali mission. Eventually you also have to make another change in the Constitution to allow for the use of nuclear power, because eventually that's what a carrier would lead to.

As for the South Koreans, they probably don't have as many political obstacles, but nonetheless, they have their own economic problems to deal with. I don't know what's holding them up even for participating in Somali anti pirate mission.