How to Grab Taiwan in 7 hours

Some people are dissmissing or underestimating the capabilities of PLA's amphib forces. There is a report on CDF by xinhui analyzing the total man power and assets owned by PLA and the amount of forces PLAN can affort to transport to establish a beach head. The results totalled up some 50000 men and some 800 vehicles with only military assets. That figure alone is a pretty respectable first assult. PLA has its showcase 15th airborn division that can be used as a distraction to facilitate the invasion forces.

Taiwan is by nature is very hard to attack due to land formation.
But this also deters defence measure available to the defending taiwanese. Getting the MBTs form north to south of the Island is it self a immense task. Defense mobilization is not an easy jobon Taiwan and could take days. It could mean an airdrop can effectively cut off reinforcements to the beach head and while the PLA amphib forces storm on.

The element of surprise is not really apparent here as the preparation for the crossing alone would alarm the ROCA of an immanent invasion but I doubt any of you know the time it takes for division level mobilization in ROCA. Usually it takes upwards of 72 hours in any army. That would means while PLA is prepared and have the advantage of a head start.

The missiles are more of an psycological weapon than an tactical one. Imagine what it would fell like if you were under 10 hours of continous bombarment from waves of rockets and missiles. Yes PLA have long range rockets that have enought range to reach Taiwan.

Even with the element of surprise, I don't think China would be able to take Taiwan within 7 hours, due to various logistical, manpower and enemy army related factors.
And I don't think 7 hours of missile bombardment would cause the Taiwanese to surrender. As T1000/Vincelee said in one of the discussions in the archives, it would probably provoke resistance from both the Taiwanese military and the population. And be careful what you post, it might bring that Vince guy back.....

hallo84 said:

Taiwan is by nature is very hard to attack due to land formation.
But this also deters defence measure available to the defending taiwanese. Getting the MBTs form north to south of the Island is it self a immense task. Defense mobilization is not an easy jobon Taiwan and could take days. It could mean an airdrop can effectively cut off reinforcements to the beach head and while the PLA amphib forces storm on.

The element of surprise is not really apparent here as the preparation for the crossing alone would alarm the ROCA of an immanent invasion but I doubt any of you know the time it takes for division level mobilization in ROCA. Usually it takes upwards of 72 hours in any army. That would means while PLA is prepared and have the advantage of a head start.

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Hi, welcome to the forum, not bad for a first post!

Indeed, Taiwan's geography gives it an important advantage in defending against China, for one thing China must cross the strait, expending more resources and time while all Taiwan has to do is dig in.

Regarding mobilization... here's something I got from another message board, OrBat is from 2004~2005.

Since unit designation and location are classified information in the ROC military, it is difficult to present an entirely accurate ORBAT. The following was pieced together from news reports and other non-classified materials. It is by no means complete and should be considered speculative at best.

6th Army - Northern Taiwan

106, 116, 118, 152, 153, 176, 178 Infantry Brigades
269 Motorized Infantry Brigade
351 Armored Infantry Brigade
542, 543 Armor Brigades
21 Artillery Command
53 Engineer Group
73 Signals Group
33 Chemical Warfare Group

8th Army - Southern Taiwan

103, 108, 117, 136, 137 Infantry Brigades
298 Motorized Infantry Brigade
395 Armored Infantry Brigade
564 Armor Brigade
43 Artillery Command
54 Engineer Group
39 Chemical Warfare Group

10th Army - Central Taiwan

102, 104, 107, 157, 169, 192 Infantry Brigades
200 Motorized Infantry Brigade
373 Armored Infantry Brigade
586 Armor Brigade
58 Artillery Command
52 Engineer Group
74 Signals Group
36 Chemical Warfare Group

Hua-Tung Defense Command - Eastern Taiwan

128, 129 Infantry Brigades

Penghu Defense Command

163, 168 Infantry Brigades
503 Armor Brigade
101 Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion (1 company)

Kinmen Defense Command

119, 127, 158 Infantry Brigades
584 Armor Brigade
Artillery Command
101 Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion (2 companies)

Matzu Defense Command

193, 194 Infantry Brigades
Artillery Command
101 Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion (1 company)

Aviation and Special Warfare Command

601 (norther), 602 (central), 603 (southern) Air Cavalry Brigades
862 Special Warfare Brigade

Tungyin

195 Infantry Brigade
101 Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion (1 company)

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If this is accurate, it is obvious that there are armor units stationed all over the west coast, and unless they were all wiped out, transporting additional units from the north should be largely unnecessary. Note that missile command has not been listed as ROCA, it was split into a separate group a few years ago.

DPRKPTboat said:

Even with the element of surprise, I don't think China would be able to take Taiwan within 7 hours, due to various logistical, manpower and enemy army related factors.
And I don't think 7 hours of missile bombardment would cause the Taiwanese to surrender. As T1000/Vincelee said in one of the discussions in the archives, it would probably provoke resistance from both the Taiwanese military and the population. And be careful what you post, it might bring that Vince guy back.....

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No I don't think Taiwan could be tken in 7 hours either...
This is just some media flick stated bt Taiwanese madia. But PLA is ready to outbleed Taiwan in a long standoff, PLA docterine have shown that in many cases. Will taiwanese accept the losses?

No I don't think the missile bombarment would untimately achieve the effect PLA wanted but at the time the Missiles were the only creditable detterrence PLA can whip up...

The_Zergling said:

Hi, welcome to the forum, not bad for a first post!

Indeed, Taiwan's geography gives it an important advantage in defending against China, for one thing China must cross the strait, expending more resources and time while all Taiwan has to do is dig in.

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Thanks it's not my first forum experience...

China have the resource and repeadily shown the determination to take Taiwan if necessary. Yes the strait crossing will employ all that PLA have in its inventory. But the chinese have started to prepare for an chance that Taiwan does sperate or what Beijing see as seperatist motion. China is also stating an emergency crude reserve. actual implimentation of modernizations in the PLAN although the amphib ability wasn't of too much focus as beijing still consider soft power as the prime option. non-the-less these are some clear indication of chage from vocal threats to actually considering implementing force as an option.

The_Zergling said:

Regarding mobilization... here's something I got from another message board, OrBat is from 2004~2005.

If this is accurate, it is obvious that there are armor units stationed all over the west coast, and unless they were all wiped out, transporting additional units from the north should be largely unnecessary. Note that missile command has not been listed as ROCA, it was split into a separate group a few years ago.

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Thanks for the Info. See here is my question. How many are NCO? How many of these units are actually combat ready and on standby? If not how long does it take to mobilize these men? I've been told usually it's 72hours for preparation in division levels and the Taiwan counterpart of a brigade is roughly equal.

I'd say the PLA has a clear head start even if Taiwan becomes aware of PLA intension in the starting hours.

Well, honestly speaking I do not have any accurate information on how many are combat ready at any given moment. It's been a while since I've asked my friends/relatives who have done service, but to my understanding it's somewhere between 48~72 hours. It's true that the PLA will have the benefit of the first strike, but after that Taiwan's proximity to the battlefield will make it easier to reinforce the troops that were hit in the first wave.

Unless China can maintain a constant flow of troops and material across the strait, Taiwan will be able to mobilize additional forces in addition to the units that were already on standby quicker, giving a small but important advantage.

The_Zergling said:

Well, honestly speaking I do not have any accurate information on how many are combat ready at any given moment. It's been a while since I've asked my friends/relatives who have done service, but to my understanding it's somewhere between 48~72 hours. It's true that the PLA will have the benefit of the first strike, but after that Taiwan's proximity to the battlefield will make it easier to reinforce the troops that were hit in the first wave.

Unless China can maintain a constant flow of troops and material across the strait, Taiwan will be able to mobilize additional forces in addition to the units that were already on standby quicker, giving a small but important advantage.

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If even half of the Orbat you mentioned are on active duty... which to say is an optimistic guess then PLA would still have a the quantity advantage. The 15th airborn and many other PLA airborn divisons as I mentioned could be deployed to tie up reserves and preventing them from reinforcing the beaches. The critical question being if PLA can overrun the beach defences quickly to established a defendable beach head for further troop and resource flow. If in the process they capture undamaged port facility then all the quicker as now civilian ships can also be mustered up as transports. PLA generally have used civil cargos as transports even during their evercises...

I believe PLA could theoretically achieve this with a stroke of luck... abit some loss of lives in the process.

Certainly won't be the rediculous 7 hours...

I have a way to grab Taiwan, but not in 7 hours, maybe 70 months?
I like to read war history and military news, but I am not someone who loves to see blood that much, especially in this case where both side are Chinese.
So why not take Taiwan with less blood? By looking at the current situation, it seems that the Chinese government quite agree with me.
Not everyone in Taiwan want independent, I would put a rough figure, maybe 50-50? So, China needs to target the 50% Taiwanese who want independent but not invading the whole Taiwan. For me, invading Taiwan is the stupidest way the Chinese government could think of. But of course, they are not stupid, I can see that the Chinese government wants no war with Taiwan.
In my opinion, the main reason the 50% Taiwanese who want independent because they see Mainland Chinese as poor, no culture, uneducated, something like a 2nd class people, they do not want to join the family. But how to fight this war? Well, I would say fight it the Mao Zedong's way, just like in WW2 with the Japanese, that's the reason why I said in the beginning I have a way to grab Taiwan but in 70 months.
Some people talked about how to fight Taiwan, Japan and US at the same time. You guys want a WW3??????
So, first China will need a unification count down, and announce to the world that China will take Taiwan on a certain date. Also tells the Taiwanese, war is only directed to the ppl who want independent, and remember to mention "This is a long war!" The innocent ppl are advised to leave Taiwan with your family and valuable items before the war starts. For those who want independent, you can stay until our forces land in Taiwan.
When the day comes, no army, no air force, no navy, just fire MLRS to Taiwan. No need high accuracy weapons, the most important thing in firing these rockets is "NOT ACCURATE". Maybe just hitting the brothels? government offices? Chen's ancestors' graveyard? Yes, those are very good targets! This sends a message to Taiwanese the 'poor' trained PLA are coming with their 'outdated' weapons. Remember! Fire unaccurately!
If the Taiwanese navy and air force stay in their bases, the Chinese navy and air force do the same. If they come, destroy them in Chinese water. Also tell those in Kimmen and Matsu (most of them support KMT), stay in their tunnels quietly and do not make a single move, if not they will be wiped out also.
When the Americans come, stop and bring up the Taiwan issues in UN. I do not think Americans will attack China as Chinese has never moved their 2nd artillery, air force, navy and army. Then we will see how long American aircraft battle groups will stay on the sea, 1 month? 2 months? 3 months? When they leave, fire rockets again. Stop when they come back.
What if US put a sanction on China? Well, China had been that way since WW2, they still survived till today. But it's a different story for Taiwan, the message is, if you want independent, the war will go on. I believe in 70 months, Taipei will be turned into a place worse than a village in China. Then we will see what the pro-independent ppl in Taiwan will say.
Well, this is just my idea, not sure if it can work. Please give comments

I have a better notion. Let say the CCP bribe the taiwanese to support unification. The chinese government have over 800 billion foreign reserve, if we don't count the 20% or so taiwanese support unification and minus the people under 18. A rough guess there would be some where about 15milion taiwanese, so each of them will get about 60,000 dollars. That still is a lot of money, maybe many Taiwanese will want to switch side. So China would take over Taiwan without a single blood, and everybody will be happy. AS a plus Chinese will also get the 250billion dollars from Taiwan reserve, so that is not so bad after all.

Sh*t I probably have a fever, when did I become an idiot to suggest this kind of nonsense. Oh well, just ignore what I say in this post, and never judge me on this. I am very .

Out of curiosity, is that 60,000 RMB, NT, or USD?

Choy said:

I have a way to grab Taiwan, but not in 7 hours, maybe 70 months?
I like to read war history and military news, but I am not someone who loves to see blood that much, especially in this case where both side are Chinese.
So why not take Taiwan with less blood?
Not everyone in Taiwan want independent, I would put a rough figure, maybe 50-50? So, China needs to target the 50% Taiwanese who want independent but not invading the whole Taiwan.
In my opinion, the main reason the 50% Taiwanese who want independent because they see Mainland Chinese as poor, no culture, uneducated, something like a 2nd class people, they do not want to join the family.
So, first China will need a unification count down, and announce to the world that China will take Taiwan on a certain date. Also tells the Taiwanese, war is only directed to the ppl who want independent, and remember to mention "This is a long war!" The innocent ppl are advised to leave Taiwan with your family and valuable items before the war starts. For those who want independent, you can stay until our forces land in Taiwan.
When the day comes, no army, no air force, no navy, just fire MLRS to Taiwan. No need high accuracy weapons, the most important thing in firing these rockets is "NOT ACCURATE".

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I certainly agree that it's in everyone's interests to avoid bloodshed. Whether or not peace comes from unification is open to debate, but whatever -_-;.

From my personal experience, I would disagree with your 50/50 figure regarding independence. From the people I've talked to, most of them feel that Taiwan is already a de facto country, but that does not reflect accurately in elections or polls for several reasons; for instance, some feel Taiwan is a country but don't think it's worth being invaded, others feel Taiwan is a country but disagree with the current independence-leaning leadership, the list goes on.

So singling out the "50%" who want independence without invading all of Taiwan is pretty much impossible. I disagree that the majority of Taiwanese people view Mainland Chinese as "2nd class people". As far as I can tell, there is little if any animosity towards China, just the hostile government and its actions. Whether or not they feel they should be joining a "family" remains open to debate. When your "brother" is pointing missiles at you it kind of overrides any common blood in your veins.

You mentioned a unification count down. From what I can tell, basically it's telling the world and Taiwan, "We're going to do as we please, you can all STFU."

It's indeed admirable that the CCP would (in your scenario) advice the innocent people to move from Taiwan. Except for a few problems. Number one, not everyone is financially or emotionally capable of moving from a country that they feel attachment to. Even if they could get over that, exactly where would they go? I don't see Japan or the U.S. issuing out millions of passports anytime soon. In other words, there WILL unavoidably millions of innocents left on the island, whether or not they want independence or not. If they didn't earlier, they'll probably want it now that no matter what they do they'll die. So I'd say it's counter-productive. (A sticky issue is the problem of aboriginals. They'd probably be like, "What right do you have to tell us what to do, and fire missiles at us? We ARE the original people of Taiwan! WTF?!")

So, your first point is moot. It's IMPOSSIBLE to have only "combatants" in Taiwan. Obviously this causes problems for the second part of your scenario. Since you're not caring about accuracy, inevitably there will be civilian casualties, possibly horrendous. It would probably only take one "misplaced" MLRS strike in metro Taipei to raise a public outcry.

Choy said:

I believe in 70 months, Taipei will be turned into a place worse than a village in China. Then we will see what the pro-independent ppl in Taiwan will say.

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This could seriously backfire. For one thing, it is possible that the Taiwanese people will actually... say... feel PISSED because they were living their lives happily until China decided to turn it into a place worse than "a village in China?". If they decide to unify just to survive, what you'll get is a country of millions of pissed off people who will forever hold a grudge against the CCP. Not exactly the nicest province to have.

You asked for comments, and I gave them. Nothing personal, but I think it's a lousy plan, because it's political suicide and will result in at best a Win-Lose for China, or a Lose-Lose for all.