How to cope with decreasing of export/demand for chinese goods.

China should learn from the Koreans and Japanese. They don't let the foreign companies run around in the country wild. They know what they doing.
They able absorb all their tehcnologies yet keep those foreign companies at bay.

Even importing some beef is life and death matter.

CHina , too as soon as they learn their technolgoies, time to kick some of foreign companies out, as evident by the newly establish anti-monopoly law.

antimatter said:

China should learn from the Koreans and Japanese.

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Why? Its precisely what China didn't do compared to the Koreans and the Japanese that allowed China to have a much longer vigorous and sustained economic growth pattern.

crobato said:

Why? Its precisely what China didn't do compared to the Koreans and the Japanese that allowed China to have a much longer vigorous and sustained economic growth pattern.

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Because both countires have shown they could move up the value chain.
For example, thailand, philippine, malaysia showed they can't move up stuck in mediocrity. Taiwan also not qute there because mostly its high tech manufacturing and little innovation and core technologies.

For the next 10 yrs, it's crucial for CHina to see if they could really move up to the top of value chain. If they progressed but stuck in the middle of pack and like taiwan mostly high tehc manufacturing, then I consider them as failure.

If that happens, the main causes are too reliant on foreign tech and little innovation on its own. not enough incentive. If they can't innovate in next 10 yrs, a big part of the fault is because of what you described and favoring.

Right now, I am seeing alot of head wind. I seriously doubt they could move up the value chain to the top. That's why I promote for self development.

antimatter said:

Because both countires have shown they could move up the value chain.
For example, thailand, philippine, malaysia showed they can't move up stuck in mediocrity. Taiwan also not qute there because mostly its high tech manufacturing and little innovation and core technologies.

For the next 10 yrs, it's crucial for CHina to see if they could really move up to the top of value chain. If they progressed but stuck in the middle of pack and like taiwan mostly high tehc manufacturing, then I consider them as failure.

If that happens, the main causes are too reliant on foreign tech and little innovation on its own. not enough incentive. If they can't innovate in next 10 yrs, a big part of the fault is because of what you described and favoring.

Right now, I am seeing alot of head wind. I seriously doubt they could move up the value chain to the top. That's why I promote for self development.

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What kind of value chain are you talking about??? If the kind of 'value chain' you are talking about is the ability to produce indigenous computers, cars and other machinery, then China is right up there with Japan and SK, without the 'academic-defense industrial complex' taking over. If you are talking about top edge electronic and material science, let me mind you that both SK and Japan are still buying their stuff, or begging to buy more stuff from the US. So your initially fundamental premise is a false one.

You talk about incentives in the other thread, and yet in the same breathe you favor isolationism, which would instantly shrink the market for the invention of new technology. Basic knowledge in economics aside, please have some common sense before trying to have a serious discussion.

antimatter said:

China should learn from the Koreans and Japanese. They don't let the foreign companies run around in the country wild. They know what they doing.

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They sure do. After decades of restricting foreign competition into domestic markets and insisting on using banks as instruments to promote export-oriented industries, Japan and SK sure has had great success with their economies in the past decade. It's funny you brought them up, because they are a great demonstration of what happens to countries that steer away from letting the market, supply and demand, dictate the allocation of capital and impose restrictions on foreign competition.

antimatter said:

Because both countires have shown they could move up the value chain.
For example, thailand, philippine, malaysia showed they can't move up stuck in mediocrity. Taiwan also not qute there because mostly its high tech manufacturing and little innovation and core technologies.

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Actually Taiwan is doing pretty well. You open up all those high end game consoles, and the heart of those game consoles are Made in Taiwan graphics chips from nVidia and ATI. These are ethnically Chinese controlled companies with strong Taiwan connections with labs in both Taiwan, Canada and the US.

You will find that Taiwan has a strong hand with Silicon Valley companies, as these companies have strong ethnic Chinese and Taiwanese connections. These companies subcontract their chips to Taiwan free play fabs, and free play fabs like TSMC has no equal in the world in their abilities to manufacture very complex chips at low volumes and yet in low prices. Good examples are the graphics chips, or the motherboard chips, that's the heart of every PC. Why does the Taiwanese dominate them?

Memory chips, like those pursued by companies like Infineon, are inherently low tech in comparison, since a memory chip is essentially a matrix of capacitors. Comparing a memory chip to a motherboard chip would be in analog, comparing a large farm to a large factory. The complexity of a motherboard chipset is that this chipset literally defines and integrates all the functionality you know as a PC into a reality.

This ability to manufacture such complexity at low prices have spread out to lap tops, cell phones, PDAs and other computing devices. The actual implementation and design of the motherboards for the iPhone and iPods are done by a Taiwanese company, which then contracts the assembly in China. The Xbox 360 and the PS3 also have motherboards designed in Taiwan and subcontracted by Taiwanese companies to who knows where.

Taiwan is a small place, it simply does not have the resources of Japan which has a population many times bigger. S. Korea is at least twice the population of Taiwan. So Taiwan cannot be master of many industries, but it has to select which industry its going to be good at, then be good at it. And this has worked very well for Taiwan, and no place in the world is better at systems design and integration than the Taiwanese PC companies.

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FugitiveVisions said:

It's funny you brought them up, because they are a great demonstration of what happens to countries that steer away from letting the market, supply and demand, dictate the allocation of capital and impose restrictions on foreign competition.

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Not according to my eyes of what I see, I see people ready to revolt and overthrow the government because of just imported beef.

That should give you a hint, them don't like to buy any foreign stuffs.

kliu0 said:

You consider Taiwan a failure?
Economies take time to grow. Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam are having a hard time moving up because: China. The Chinese mostly produce the same things they are trying to produce for example: clothing and some everyday essentials. If they were to specialise, they would move up economically speaking. .

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I don't see taiwan as failure, I say if China is doing samething as taiwan and not much else, then it's a failure on China given its size.

thailand, malaysia have started integrate with world much earlier. Had they progess significantly, they shouldn't even compete with CHina in the same areas in the first place.

crobato said:

Actually Taiwan is doing pretty well. You open up all those high end game consoles, and the heart of those game consoles are Made in Taiwan graphics chips from nVidia and ATI. These are ethnically Chinese controlled companies with strong Taiwan connections with labs in both Taiwan, Canada and the US.

This ability to manufacture such complexity at low prices have spread out to lap tops, cell phones, PDAs and other computing devices. The actual implementation and design of the motherboards for the iPhone and iPods are done by a Taiwanese company, which then contracts the assembly in China. The Xbox 360 and the PS3 also have motherboards designed in Taiwan and subcontracted by Taiwanese companies to who knows where.

Taiwan is a small place, it simply does not have the resources of Japan which has a population many times bigger. S. Korea is at least twice the population of Taiwan. So Taiwan cannot be master of many industries, but it has to select which industry its going to be good at, then be good at it. And this has worked very well for Taiwan, and no place in the world is better at systems design and integration than the Taiwanese PC companies.

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It's good for taiwan, but that not enough for China if it wants to be top power in the world.

If the next 10 yrs, CHina is wallowing in the same areas as taiwan and not much else. then it's no good.

right now, China really has one true world-class technology company that's Huawei. I don't consider Lenovo as coretech that's why IBM sold it.
CHina needs to develope at least 10 more world-class tech comapnies. I am keeping my fingers across on this.