I'm a little puzzled by what you exactly mean. It seems to me that you seem a little confused over what GDP (the annual monetary value of what a country produces)
as to the est. nett worth of America, which in this case, Friedman determined it to be $300 Trillion.. but you must be aware that this is based on asset value in a given point in time so it is most likely to fluctuate.
Perhaps you may like to read my reply to Schumacher (post42) for a extended explanation.
So now $50 trillion is 'pretty close' to $300 trillion ? lol.
How much of the net worth is based on stocks & real estate, two of the biggest bubbles in living memory ? and are they 'marked to market' or 'marked to fantasy' to arrive at the figure ? lol
There're reasons GDP is used much more to compare economies than 'net worth'. In the bubble years, the value of the real estate in Tokyo alone was said to be greater than entire US or the world just to show how ridiculous it can get.
Here's something few months back talking of China's rate of overtaking the US has accelerated post crisis to only about 10 years time. The PPP will likely happen even sooner.
I saw no need to share this here when I first saw it since although I mostly agree with it, I thought it was stating the obvious based on simple arithmetic. But I see it's good to put it here since some still prefer to dig up 'Tom Clancy type' analysis rather than those by real economist.
Apr 23, 2009, 9:15 a.m. EST
China's GDP to overtake U.S. by early 2020s, says analyst
Mainland to become world's largest in about a decade, says Deutsche Bank
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China will overtake the U.S. in terms of economic output within a decade, according to estimates released Thursday by Deutsche Bank, which said it had to accelerate its forecast of the mainland's leadership in the global economy in view of favorable growth dynamics in emerging markets.
China's growth will be underpinned by a rapid expansion in emerging market economies, which will account for about 70% of global GDP growth in the coming decade, Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist for Greater China, Jun Ma, told an investment conference in Hong Kong,
China will "massively invest" in these emerging economies using its nearly $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, extend its leverage by extending loans to the International Monetary Fund, and allow the yuan to appreciate in preparation for the currency's potential reserve status.
By the early 2020s, China will over the U.S. in terms of GDP, Ma said, noting the forecast is dramatically stepped-up from his views two years earlier.
"China's nominal GDP growth could surpass that of the United States within ten years, a period which will likely be accompanied by a gradual appreciation of the yuan," Ma said.
He added China had shown signs of economic recovery but cautioned the current rebound, fueled by the massive government stimulus spending and rapid growth in new loan issuance by state-controlled banks, will prove a false dawn.
The economy will slow as lending cools. The next downward leg of the what Ma described as "w-shaped" recovery will set in around the January-beginning quarter of next year.
It will take about 18 months for the economy to enter a new growth cycle, from the beginning of contraction.
"We expect a final GDP recovery, on a quarter on quarter basis, to start by middle of 2010," Ma said.
Bank lending is expected to cool to around 300 billion yuan per month from this month, easing from the monthly average 1.3 trillion yuan in the first quarter. The slowdown in lending will take about three to four months to be felt, Ma added.
Among favored ways to leverage China's growth potential, Ma said he favors health care, nuclear, wind power, the resource sector and advanced equipment makers in the areas of telecoms, shipbuilding, medical and power generation.
