recently I linked an SCMP article saying something to the effect he's barred due to Beijing influence -- would this be true?
I don't think you are being unreasonable, so I will respond with my own thoughts.
1. "Someone active will stay active", I think you mean an activist will be pushed to continue with his activism with this action.
If you think about it logically, he (and many of the protesters) are concerned about democracy, but there are already elections! What are you protesting for then?
He got disqualified, so now he is saying this is Mickey Mouse election.
The way I see it:
What would he say if he was allowed to run and lost? He would say it's fixed.
What would he say if he was allowed to run and won? He would just say he has no power to change the system.
Whether he is elected or not, he will cause problems. Might as well keep his troublemaking outside of the government.
This isn't even taking into account the foreign influence. Posters above are not exaggerating. Meeting with foreign government officials including American embassy staff, foreign affairs are outside the purview of HK SAR constitution, that's not to say he "shouldn't or "can't", but I think it illustrates his true colours.
More logical thinking, this is a guy with no real job besides activism, never had a business or job before. Somehow he can fly all over the place and meet with all these people. As the saying goes, "just follow the money".
Forgot to address the Beijing part, obviously I don't represent the PRC government, but in my opinion, I think it plays a part, but really like I said, he has no true intention of trying to govern.
This is what I said a few post back!
Yes, it is very hard to watch as the media and government officials in your own country make up garbage.