H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
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Can we PLEASE stop this constant posting of Russian claims what they "will" archive in a few years!? It's irrelevant and almost on Indian level since in fact most of these claims are not even worth the bandwidth ... when we see something notable, then post it, but only THEN in the correct thread!
@huitong is right to cast doubt on the status of the H-20 program as a result of the emergence of what we're now calling the GJ-X.
However, there's also the possibility that what we have before us is in fact the product of the H-20 program or what the original H-20 program transformed into. A few points to consider:
1. The H-20 is or was a XAC program, and there are only so many entities in China reasonably capable of designing and manufacturing a combat aircraft the size of the GJ-X.
2. IIRC, in the last year or so, at least a couple of reasonably credible or popular Chinese sources have claimed that the H-20 would soon be unveiled in some capacity, and here we are.
3. For years, just about everyone expected the H-20 to be a subsonic flying wing — comparable in size to the B-2 or perhaps the somewhat smaller, but newer B-21 — and the GJ-X appears to align with those parameters, even if it's uncrewed.
4. A lot of folks expect or expected the H-20 to be some sort of intercontinental bomber, but that was never confirmed as a PLAAF requirement for the H-20. However, the need for the H-20 — or something else stealthy, survivable and reasonably sizable — to replace the legacy H-6 is almost certainly a PLAAF priority, and the GJ-X fits the bill.
For now, there's no reason to expect the GJ-X to be ultimately designated the H-20 or WH-20, however amusing such a scenario might be (granted I laugh at just about anything and everything).
Regardless, the GJ-X checks multiple "H-20 boxes," and if this prototype was built by XAC — which is rather plausible — it likely at a minimum benefited significantly from the H-20 program's R&D.
Army Recognition is a sh1t source for military-related news.
Unmanned conversion would also check the box for that rumor of the H20 program undergoing a significant redesign. (if this is the result of the H20 program, and of the H20 wasn't an unmanned system from conception)@huitong is right to cast doubt on the status of the H-20 program as a result of the emergence of what we're now calling the GJ-X.
However, there's also the possibility that what we have before us is in fact the product of the H-20 program or what the original H-20 program transformed into. A few points to consider:
1. The H-20 is or was a XAC program, and there are only so many entities in China reasonably capable of designing and manufacturing a combat aircraft the size of the GJ-X.
2. IIRC, in the last year or so, at least a couple of reasonably credible or popular Chinese sources have claimed that the H-20 would soon be unveiled in some capacity, and here we are.
3. For years, just about everyone expected the H-20 to be a subsonic flying wing — comparable in size to the B-2 or perhaps the somewhat smaller, but newer B-21 — and the GJ-X appears to align with those parameters, even if it's uncrewed.
4. A lot of folks expect or expected the H-20 to be some sort of intercontinental bomber, but that was never confirmed as a PLAAF requirement for the H-20. However, the need for the H-20 — or something else stealthy, survivable and reasonably sizable — to replace the legacy H-6 is almost certainly a PLAAF priority, and the GJ-X fits the bill.
For now, there's no reason to expect the GJ-X to be ultimately designated the H-20 or WH-20, however amusing such a scenario might be (granted I laugh at just about anything and everything).
Regardless, the GJ-X checks multiple "H-20 boxes," and if this prototype was built by XAC — which is rather plausible — it likely at a minimum benefited significantly from the H-20 program's R&D.
I, however, am still copefully waiting for the annoucement of China's supersonic variable wing and inlet 10K km range H20 hyperbomber (which is somehow also stealthed up the whazoo)
Let me just say that imo while UAV and AI tech made huge strides recently, i don't think we are yet at the time when one can merrily send a bomber UAV such as GJ-X or an even bigger bomber UAV, on a combat mission on it's own, autonomously, thousands of km away. Oh yes you have all kinds of datalinks but what do you do if those are jammed/spoofed? Perhaps this might be feasible for the next generation (7th) of combat aircraft, but we are probably not there yet now.
Which is why i believe UAVs like GJ-X are part of a system of systems together with H-20. Perhaps this is one of the reasons H-20 has been delayed, to incorporate redesign and tailoring as a central node for MUM-T with UAVs such as GJ-X and probably others we may have yet to see, in addition to it's bomber role. H-20 would be a very valuable asset to just send in a high risk mission alone in this day and age, while like i said imo something like GJ-X is not quite there being able to do such missions completely on it's own. But H-20 operating in conjunction with GJ-X and possible other UAVs is a different game. Again this concept extrapolates from the way the 5th and 6th gens will be operating together with the UADFs and CCAs, and it will be surprising if this new way of air combat would not extend to the bomber realm as well.
Which is why i believe UAVs like GJ-X are part of a system of systems together with H-20. Perhaps this is one of the reasons H-20 has been delayed, to incorporate redesign and tailoring as a central node for MUM-T with UAVs such as GJ-X and probably others we may have yet to see, in addition to it's bomber role. H-20 would be a very valuable asset to just send in a high risk mission alone in this day and age, while like i said imo something like GJ-X is not quite there being able to do such missions completely on it's own. But H-20 operating in conjunction with GJ-X and possible other UAVs is a different game. Again this concept extrapolates from the way the 5th and 6th gens will be operating together with the UADFs and CCAs, and it will be surprising if this new way of air combat would not extend to the bomber realm as well.
What do you think is the blocker for autonomous long-range strike missions? Unmanned flight is solved. Unmanned target acquisition (for certain targets at least) is in a pretty good shape based only on the state of public AI systems (and these systems would likely have the targets pre-coded anyway). Autonomous escape protocols are more a matter of design specification rather than a technical hurdle. What else is there?
The prospect of GJ-X just solves for low(er) cost aerial bombing (unpowered munitions) at up to halfway between Second and Third Island Chain distances, max. And obviously the same, using powered munitions too.
It could fly there with a J-36 commanding (an A2A only layout would allow for lots of fuel, plus there’s IFR).
Even if GJ-X could make it to the Third Island Chain proper (possible), or CONUS (very unlikely), there is no manned PLAAF asset that could conceivably accompany it there, providing harder-to-jam closer proximity “tight beam” comms. Otherwise you run the risk of your EM emissions giving you away and also being jammable. And fully autonomous AI blah blah is a non-starter for this type of mission set, the technology is a long ways away yet.
Long story short, there will be a manned bomber. Do not despair lol.
It could fly there with a J-36 commanding (an A2A only layout would allow for lots of fuel, plus there’s IFR).
Even if GJ-X could make it to the Third Island Chain proper (possible), or CONUS (very unlikely), there is no manned PLAAF asset that could conceivably accompany it there, providing harder-to-jam closer proximity “tight beam” comms. Otherwise you run the risk of your EM emissions giving you away and also being jammable. And fully autonomous AI blah blah is a non-starter for this type of mission set, the technology is a long ways away yet.
Long story short, there will be a manned bomber. Do not despair lol.
I am genuinely curious, what capabilities do you think unmanned platforms could not currently fulfill technically that are essential for long-range missions? If you read reports of B-2 raids (e.g. ) , the most human element in those missions is the decision of whether to release the payload in the final instance or not, but there's no real reason that could not also be automated away. Or perhaps the real question is, what additional capabilities do human pilots bring? It's not like stealth bombers hang around to do damage assessment by themselves, and if a second attack is needed jamming will prevent the order going through to human pilots in the same situations as it prevents it from reaching the unmanned platform.
Human final confirmation is the big part everything else could be done autonomously with modern technology.