H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
I mean okay fair enough, US military air bases are more vulnerable to attack than equivalent Chinese ones. The other points still stand. It's still not a good use of high value limited H-20

Maybe a day 1 surprise attack this would be worthwhile. However after that civilian airports would be taken over, airplanes dispersed, alert levels raised, etc. From sheer distance strikes from H-20 would be sporadic at best. Just like sending a handful of B-2s or B-21s alone against Chinese mainland targets would be ineffective and thus not attempted, the reverse is also true.

It is true that US GBAD battalions are spread out quite thinly but I maintain there is enough available to defend the US west coast that H-20 raids are not worth it. Also we're specifically discussing H-20 raids on US west coast here so counts of short/medium range systems aren't really that relevant, it's the theatre air defense that matters. This is why I compare Patriot to HQ-9 and HQ-9B to show that in terms of theatre GBAD US isn't really that lacking.

I'm sorry but I have no idea what you're trying to say here. It's purely for deterrence for the possibility of strikes on US mainland? I mean it might make the US spend more on hardening sure but I'm pretty skeptical that H-20 would be worth it just for that. As for the stock markets, a general war would do that H-20 or no H-20.
IMO a large part of the justification for the H-20 is its role as the third leg of china’s nuclear triad. The ability to strike targets in the Western CONUS by conventional means would only be a side benefit. There is also Hawaii, Alaska, and possibly Diego Garcia that afaik no other PLAAF asset can reach but the H-20 can.
 
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Blitzo

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I'm going to lock this thread for now to let people cool off.

Various posts deleted.

I'm going to leave this thread locked for a day or so. Further moderation decisions, if any will not be done by me on this matter.
 
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MC530

New Member
Registered Member
I mean okay fair enough, US military air bases are more vulnerable to attack than equivalent Chinese ones. The other points still stand. It's still not a good use of high value limited H-20 airframes.


I mean sure but again it's unclear what benefit this would really provide. Short of nukes you're not really going to permanently destroy an air base. You can crater the runways and shut down operations for a while but again I just don't think it's worth it for PLAAF to send H-20s on a fairly high risk mission to disable an air base or two in continental US for a day or two and then follow it up with nothing.


I suppose PLAAF could try to destroy airframes on the ground but with the amount of available warning and the distances involved I'm skeptical this is worthwhile. It all boils down to cost benefit, these are expensive high value airframes, stealth isn't perfect, and incoming standoff munitions can be shot down at least some of the time.

Maybe a day 1 surprise attack this would be worthwhile. However after that civilian airports would be taken over, airplanes dispersed, alert levels raised, etc. From sheer distance strikes from H-20 would be sporadic at best. Just like sending a handful of B-2s or B-21s alone against Chinese mainland targets would be ineffective and thus not attempted, the reverse is also true.


It is true that US GBAD battalions are spread out quite thinly but I maintain there is enough available to defend the US west coast that H-20 raids are not worth it. Also we're specifically discussing H-20 raids on US west coast here so counts of short/medium range systems aren't really that relevant, it's the theatre air defense that matters. This is why I compare Patriot to HQ-9 and HQ-9B to show that in terms of theatre GBAD US isn't really that lacking.


I'm sorry but I have no idea what you're trying to say here. It's purely for deterrence for the possibility of strikes on US mainland? I mean it might make the US spend more on hardening sure but I'm pretty skeptical that H-20 would be worth it just for that. As for the stock markets, a general war would do that H-20 or no H-20.
Maybe I didn't express it clearly enough. In fact, your answer also expresses this point: China and the United States are both huge industrial countries. Destroying some airports, factories or military bases is meaningless to China or the United States, because there are too many, and both countries have enough capabilities to rebuild more, unless nuclear bombs kill a very large population and facilities at once.
Therefore, relying solely on B21 or H20 to carry out limited attacks will cause losses to China or the United States equivalent to hitting the other party's stock market.
However, in a full-scale war, nuclear warheads are each other's best response.
The biggest use of H20 is the deterrence of certain military bases in "limited war". But it is very necessary that this "tacit understanding" can be recognized by both parties.
This may be a problem with H20 from the perspective of strategic needs.
The B21 is different. For the United States, which has been in a limited war for more than 200 years, a top machine for limited war is obviously very helpful
 

MC530

New Member
Registered Member
China (& maybe also Russia) has the most investments in Anti-Air Defense. US has not so much investments & advancements for intercepting stealth aircrafts, also hypersonic missiles. For decades, China & Russia are more of defense position, US are more of offense position, especially in terms of air superiority. We can see things are changing now.



What happened recently tell us one thing, China will not always follow others' steps. Instead of just "copying" B-2/B-21, China may want to give H-20 some 6th gen capacity they innovated on J-36. With development of anti-stealth approaches, a simple copy of B-2/B-21 can't survive in a war after 2030s. J-36 & requirements-modified H-20 may has some tricks/tech to escape most advanced anti-stealth radar. Copy a bomber of 1990s/2010s won't help to win a war in 2030s+. On the other hand, with J36 existed, H-20 can be designed as a more dedicated bomber.
If I were to choose, orbital mobile bombers such as the X37b or the "Mingdy" suborbital mobile bomber should be favorable contenders. A subsonic flying-wing bomber that only relies on ultra-low detectability to protect itself will die immediately once it is captured by a new sensor. China and the United States are obviously the countries most likely to obtain this new search, guidance, and attack system in a short period of time.
The role of the H20 is jointly weakened by long-range cruise missiles, drones, and J36.
 

ENTED64

New Member
Registered Member
Maybe I didn't express it clearly enough. In fact, your answer also expresses this point: China and the United States are both huge industrial countries. Destroying some airports, factories or military bases is meaningless to China or the United States, because there are too many, and both countries have enough capabilities to rebuild more, unless nuclear bombs kill a very large population and facilities at once.
Therefore, relying solely on B21 or H20 to carry out limited attacks will cause losses to China or the United States equivalent to hitting the other party's stock market.
Yes I agree with all of this.

The biggest use of H20 is the deterrence of certain military bases in "limited war". But it is very necessary that this "tacit understanding" can be recognized by both parties.
This is the assumption this whole conversation has taken place under because:

However, in a full-scale war, nuclear warheads are each other's best response.
In a full scale nuclear war none of these factors really matter.

This may be a problem with H20 from the perspective of strategic needs.
The B21 is different. For the United States, which has been in a limited war for more than 200 years, a top machine for limited war is obviously very helpful
Possibly, a number of people on this thread have made good points about how strategically necessary the program is. What I find interesting is just how it's been teased semi-officially for quite a while and yet there's been not much movement unlike other PLA programs. I think given the information we have currently it does seem like the PLA feels like this program isn't as high of a priority as some others or else it would be progressing faster.
 

MC530

New Member
Registered Member
Yes I agree with all of this.


This is the assumption this whole conversation has taken place under because:


In a full scale nuclear war none of these factors really matter.


Possibly, a number of people on this thread have made good points about how strategically necessary the program is. What I find interesting is just how it's been teased semi-officially for quite a while and yet there's been not much movement unlike other PLA programs. I think given the information we have currently it does seem like the PLA feels like this program isn't as high of a priority as some others or else it would be progressing faster.
Perhaps it is because China has not yet learned how to "appropriately" use conventional weapons as the world's second strongest military country?
China's political correctness comes from historical inheritance. Regardless of the Mao Zedong era or the Deng Xiaoping era, there is no strong support for the idea of military expansion (beyond China's historical borders). To this day, Chinese students' political, social, and moral courses have always resisted the use of military operations to seize overseas rights and interests, gain strategic advantages, etc. In fact, the propaganda of the U.S. military on the Internet has greatly encouraged these young people to think in this direction.
But the military is always conservative, and the PLA's dominant propaganda does not include the political, economic, or military interests of going to Africa, Europe, and indian ocean
to "defend the empire."
Under such conditions, H20 cannot be accommodated in the PLA's military doctrine.
Unless there is a huge breakthrough that makes the PLA feel that it is worth the money - the most realistic thing is that if a Sino-US military conflict breaks out, what tasks can the H20 complete that the PLA cannot currently complete?Xi'an Aircraft Company obviously didn't answer well. What's worse is that Chengdu Aircraft Company responded with J36.;)
 
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no_name

Colonel
Perhaps it is because China has not yet learned how to "appropriately" use conventional weapons as the world's second strongest military country?
China's political correctness comes from historical inheritance. Regardless of the Mao Zedong era or the Deng Xiaoping era, there is no strong support for the idea of military expansion (beyond China's historical borders). To this day, Chinese students' political, social, and moral courses have always resisted the use of military operations to seize overseas rights and interests, gain strategic advantages, etc. In fact, the propaganda of the U.S. military on the Internet has greatly encouraged these young people to think in this direction.
But the military is always conservative, and the PLA's dominant propaganda does not include the political, economic, or military interests of going to Africa, Europe, and indian ocean
to "defend the empire."
Under such conditions, H20 cannot be accommodated in the PLA's military doctrine.
Unless there is a huge breakthrough that makes the PLA feel that it is worth the money - the most realistic thing is that if a Sino-US military conflict breaks out, what tasks can the H20 complete that the PLA cannot currently complete?Xi'an Aircraft Company obviously didn't answer well. What's worse is that Chengdu Aircraft Company responded with J36.;)
Bro did you get the memo that a PLAN task force just pretty much circumnavigated the land down under recently?

PLA has always planed for total war with the Soviets before, total war with America, and if necessary total war with the whole of western block including lackeys in Korea and Japan. They just prefer for it to be the very last resort.
 

MC530

New Member
Registered Member
Bro did you get the memo that a PLAN task force just pretty much circumnavigated the land down under recently?

PLA has always planed for total war with the Soviets before, total war with America, and if necessary total war with the whole of western block including lackeys in Korea and Japan. They just prefer for it to be the very last resort.
Bro, the media's rendering makes you feel too excited. If the combination of 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 supply ship has any impact on Australia's security, it is because they have been here, that's all.
The most important mode of operation of the Chinese Navy is the long-distance ocean training of 2 warships + 1 supply ship. They have been sending this combination to the Somali region for more than 10 years for ocean training. If you want to "deter" Australia, then obviously the minimum is a complete aircraft carrier battle group.
In fact, this is really just a training routine.
Advisers all over the world will make plans for a war against all kinds of implausible enemies, but this cannot be used as policy to influence a well-functioning government. In particular, it cannot be used as a reason to fight for military spending. The plan you mentioned to start a war with the whole world originated in the 1960s。
When the whole world is on the verge of World War III. China lacks nuclear bomb protection and has to build the country as its last line of defense. This has also brought great pain to China, and the waste of resources is no less than that of the United States and the Soviet Union in manufacturing nuclear weapons.
China abandoned this idea in the 1970s after it acquired nuclear bombs. Mao Zedong accepted the "friendship" from the United States and began to plan for opening up. It was only the struggle between various factions and ideas in China that led to this opening up entering a new era in 1979 at the hands of Deng Xiaoping.
During the Deng Xiaoping era, the Chinese military was the weakest in history, and it lasted until 1996 when it was discovered that it did not even have the necessary capabilities to defend Taiwan.
This is boring history.
The current Chinese military does not have a clear plan, otherwise 1.6% will not be a satisfactory military expenditure/GDP ratio
 
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