it’s understandable that people are prideful and nationalistic for their country , so it can be hard to recognize when your enemy is ahead of you in a field. However , I don’t think it should always be like that.
You have misunderstood me.
First, personally, I like Musk. He’s very much my kind of guy; he’s very candid on China issues and basically speaks up for China.
Second, I actually hope to see signs of a slowdown in the decline of American aerospace. I don’t have high hopes for Sino-US cooperation in the short term, but I hope that on a 30-year timescale, our two countries can one day cooperate. For humanity to enter deep space, cooperation and unity are necessary. Right now, compared to the Age of Exploration, humanity is still just floating on the sea with sailboats.
If humanity doesn’t destroy itself through war, cooperating to move into the future is an inevitable outcome.
Third, China does not want to see American aerospace, or even its technology, decline. As a 5,000-year-old great power, China is very clear about the consequences of a collapse of a nation at the level of the United States. That kind of catastrophic shock would not be in China’s interests. China needs the existence of a powerful competitor—not out of pity for the American situation, but because China understands even better that without a suitable rival, China itself would be more prone to decline. Therefore, maintaining the rival’s capability is, in itself, a way to ensure China’s own better existence. It’s just that this philosophy is not well understood by Western culture. The Western goal for a challenger is their complete destruction.
Fourth, my observation of American aerospace has its own principles. For instance, as I mentioned before, China has already made the necessary technological and project preparations for the next 15-20 years. And what is America doing now? It’s in a stage of having done nothing, of not even having begun to think about these things. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. China is already advancing on all fronts from a new starting line, while Americans are still in chaos, not even having identified the problems. I can only say, my friend, in ten years, what will you rely on to win against China?
It’s like China’s rare earth strategy 30 years ago, or its electric vehicle strategy 15-20 years ago. The China I see has already unfolded its work and layout for the next 10-20 years. Americans are still cluelessly wondering what to do. Everyone is hoping SpaceX’s Starship can maintain America’s lead. I feel a bit helpless. I mentioned something before: right now, the entire U.S. has only four heavy-lift rocket engine models with over 200 tons of thrust, and one of them is about to be retired (the RS-25 for SLS), while the other has been shelved (the AS-1). In China, a single rocket engine research institute can simultaneously develop 8 completely different engine models (actually 11 variants) within 8 years, of which 5 have over 200 tons of thrust. Under this kind of R&D pressure, they can still “squeeze in” the development of a 140-ton engine.
Go look at the American aerospace program at the height of the Cold War; it couldn’t even manage to develop so many engine models at the same time. And this doesn’t even include private heavy-lift rocket engines. Besides the official heavy engines, at least two other private companies have proposed heavy engines over 200 tons of thrust (comparable to the Raptor). The development capability and cost of a 200-ton-class liquid rocket engine are extremely high (even normal national space agencies can’t do it. Just look at Japan, Europe, and India if you don’t believe me). For China to have at least 8 different heavy engine models, with different working principles, under development by 2030—this strength is so insane it’s hard to believe.
Right now, America only has two types of heavy engines under development: the Raptor series and Blue Origin’s BE-4, both methane-powered. There used to be the AS-1 (kerosene, 200-ton class) for the SLS. China is simultaneously developing heavy hydrogen-oxygen engines, heavy kerosene engines, and heavy methane engines.
Do you really think I’m hyping up China’s space program out of emotion? Or is it based on indisputable facts?
Let me say it again: when I point out America’s problems, it’s not to mock American aerospace. When I negate Starship, it’s not out of hatred for SpaceX.
I hope that one day, American decision-makers will see what I see and make American aerospace successful again. That way, 30 years from now, when facing deep space, China and the United States can reconcile, and China will have a true partner and not be alone. That is my goal.
