Global future space architecture thread

[madhusudan.tim]

Maiden launch vs Second launch, not really comparable. There may have been some misplaced expectations if one thought ZQ-3 beating it was more than an unlikely possibility, also, fighting for second place isn't glorious, especially when landspace already has its own global firsts...

Also some point of reference:
Blue Origin started development of New Glenn before Landspace was even founded, in that time the later developed 3 (and a half) launchers
The total development cost of new glenn is over $10B, Landspace has raised in total RMB 3.5B, 1/20th of that.
Blue origin has over 11,000 employees while landspace has 1,000.

The problem is not that they are slower. They are meant to be faster, more agile, and less constrained by institutional interia. Why starliner failed and dragon succeeded was the prime example of allowing less advanced but nimble startups to explore and flourish. But the main issue, subjectively to me is that, all of the industry is overly organized, or the tendency to organize everything to keep things neat and orderly and devoid of any mishap, is causing headwinds. While this is a good idea, IMO , it is still premature when the industry has not taken off yet. Private companies should have been allowed more leeway and more generous financial and policy support. They are now regulating electric vehicles wrt 0-100 kph time, flush door handles, battery safety, misleading advertisements, which came at the perfect time after the private companies took off and dominated. Whole thing would have been different if hundreds if not thousands of companies were not allowed to go for ev production.

 

[Michael90]

The problem is not that they are slower. They are meant to be faster, more agile, and less constrained by institutional interia. Why starliner failed and dragon succeeded was the prime example of allowing less advanced but nimble startups to explore and flourish. But the main issue, subjectively to me is that, all of the industry is overly organized, or the tendency to organize everything to keep things neat and orderly and devoid of any mishap, is causing headwinds. While this is a good idea, IMO , it is still premature when the industry has not taken off yet. Private companies should have been allowed more leeway and more generous financial and policy support. They are now regulating electric vehicles wrt 0-100 kph time, flush door handles, battery safety, misleading advertisements, which came at the perfect time after the private companies took off and dominated. Whole thing would have been different if hundreds if not thousands of companies were not allowed to go for ev production.

Yeah I guess it’s always best to allow lots of freedom and leeway when an industry is still a nascent one, then when they have grown strong and dominant then start regulating them more strictly.

 

[vincent]

Yeah I guess it’s always best to allow lots of freedom and leeway when an industry is still a nascent one, then when they have grown strong and dominant then start regulating them more strictly.

Sure it is good to have “Freedom!®” unless you are someone living within 50km of one of those fast innovators’ test facilities

 

[iewgnem]

Wow….how come US companies have so much capital available to them compared to their peers? I didn’t think the difference will be so large

Are you really asking how Amazon makes money?

The real difference here is Chinese launch startups are B-team programs who actually have to operate like real businesses with need to raise money and make sales, while there is a national A-team who can afford a full fledged lunar base program.,

US companies are the entire US space industry, they are the A-team, there is no national team doing real work, what you see is all there is, and neither SpaceX nor Amazon can actually afford to fund a lunar program themselves.

China can build ILRS while letting it's space startups grow organically.
But if Amazon or Tesla can't afford to fund Artemis without NASA, and NASA budget is only getting smaller, that's it.

 

[vincent]

The problem is not that they are slower. They are meant to be faster, more agile, and less constrained by institutional interia. Why starliner failed and dragon succeeded was the prime example of allowing less advanced but nimble startups to explore and flourish. But the main issue, subjectively to me is that, all of the industry is overly organized, or the tendency to organize everything to keep things neat and orderly and devoid of any mishap, is causing headwinds. While this is a good idea, IMO , it is still premature when the industry has not taken off yet. Private companies should have been allowed more leeway and more generous financial and policy support. They are now regulating electric vehicles wrt 0-100 kph time, flush door handles, battery safety, misleading advertisements, which came at the perfect time after the private companies took off and dominated. Whole thing would have been different if hundreds if not thousands of companies were not allowed to go for ev production.

Tacoburger, just stop

 

[Michael90]

Now that blue origin has succeeded to land a reusable rocket at their first try, it will be interesting to see the heated competition between them and spaceX . This is a good thing for US space program, competition is always a good thing and brings out the best in each industry.
We shouldn't forget that Rocket lab(which has successfully recovered its Electron rocket's first stage and is developing the larger Neutron rocket), Stoke space, Relativity space and others are also gearing up to test reusable rockets this coming years. Plus there is old behemoths ULA, Lockheed Martin's and Boeing's vulcan Centaur rockets though they are not reusable they still provide some form of alternative launch systems.

So it's an exciting time for US space industry, they will probably keep the lead in this sector , Only china is even in the race to compete, all other countries are far behind and will only fall behind even more with time compared to this 2 powers.

 

[Tomboy]

Now that blue origin has succeeded to land a reusable rocket at their first try, it will be interesting to see the heated competition between them and spaceX .

Second try

 

[nativechicken]

As I’ve said before, Blue Origin is actually the true pillar of the American aerospace industry. Its R&D and strategic layout are very sound. After all, it’s the company that acquired ULA (maybe...).

SpaceX is the real upstart—the kind that’s so arrogant and lost in its own hype it can’t find its way.