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Captain
Interesting, so if the Changchun Institute of Optics rolls out its EUV lithographic prototype in 2022, we should see the first commercial delivery in around 2025?
Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.
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I have written to Huawei before on pointing out its business weakness and its actions i believe they have taken my advices into consideration.
Since google got banned i have seen the need for Huawei to hedge away from its handset and communication units.
I told they need to be more of semiconductor component supplier and also go into mixed signal chip for car industry.
Well. I have seen now Hisilicon. Increasingly selling its components to others beside Huawei. And its recently partnership with STMicro which is a car chip supplier speaks volume.
It will leverage its vast digital IP and to combine with STMicro expertise on analog to come up with more powerful chips.
Also branching into different area as Huawei hiring more Nvidia engineers to go into GPU field, its GPU will be used for its server and AI business.
But dont be surprise one day you see Huawei Graphic Card for gaming.
Since google got banned i have seen the need for Huawei to hedge away from its handset and communication units.
I told they need to be more of semiconductor component supplier and also go into mixed signal chip for car industry.
Well. I have seen now Hisilicon. Increasingly selling its components to others beside Huawei. And its recently partnership with STMicro which is a car chip supplier speaks volume.
It will leverage its vast digital IP and to combine with STMicro expertise on analog to come up with more powerful chips.
Also branching into different area as Huawei hiring more Nvidia engineers to go into GPU field, its GPU will be used for its server and AI business.
But dont be surprise one day you see Huawei Graphic Card for gaming.
Looking at the DUV and EUV roadmap. They are being done parallel. It looks encouraging because so many institutes involves in supplying different parts. SMEE is just an integrator like ASML. Granted it wont easy but looks like they have the govenment funding and major roadblocks have been cleared.
DUV immersion will come out this year and EUV next year.
Beside this CMXT ramping its DDR4 dram, and Yangtze its 128 layers Nand
This will have major geopolitical consequences
I would say in 2 or 3 years, 5 years latest China can just ban all US and taiwanese semiconductor firms. Confisticate TSMC fab in Nanjing.
Actually taiwan supplying alot of US chips that go to China.
This will hurt taiwan alot. Its independence movement will have its day of reckoning.
Squeezing taiwanese semiconductor will force its industry to layoff engineers and then bring them over to mainland to work. And that death spiral downward.
The key is ban both US and taiwan semiconductor.
Once China can achieve its equipment independence then it has nothing to afraid. No need to worry about foreign investment coming in
Not at all.
DUV immersion will come out this year and EUV next year.
Beside this CMXT ramping its DDR4 dram, and Yangtze its 128 layers Nand
This will have major geopolitical consequences
I would say in 2 or 3 years, 5 years latest China can just ban all US and taiwanese semiconductor firms. Confisticate TSMC fab in Nanjing.
Actually taiwan supplying alot of US chips that go to China.
This will hurt taiwan alot. Its independence movement will have its day of reckoning.
Squeezing taiwanese semiconductor will force its industry to layoff engineers and then bring them over to mainland to work. And that death spiral downward.
The key is ban both US and taiwan semiconductor.
Once China can achieve its equipment independence then it has nothing to afraid. No need to worry about foreign investment coming in
Not at all.
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You're usually such a negative Nancy, it's good to see you positive!
You are right. The biggest losers will be TSMC and ASML.
The development of DUV & EUV machines will guarantee that Huawei will be a world leader in its field. Also Chinese Telecom Technology conpanies will thrive.
Lithography machine & Airplane Turbofan engine technology is the 2 most critical technologies for China. Thats why Government prioritise it.
Its interesting that the SMEE DUV Lithography machine 28nm resolution will be released at the end of this year.
This can produce 7nm Chips.
A recent article i quoted says that SMEE has developed a 22nm DUV machine last month (April).
This machine can probably produce 5nm Chips.
It looks like SMEE is continuing to improve its DUV Lithography machines while ASML has stopped development.
Yes. I believe the EUV Litho Machine is included in the next 5 Year Plan 2021 - 2025. But i hope it will be released sooner in order for it to be competitive.
Skywatcher
Captain
ASML might still have some room to breathe if they can sell EUV machines (there'll still be some demand in the next decade, since ASML machines currently have 3x more productivity compared to the Changchun prototype). TSMC would probably take advantage of presumably cheaper Chinese lithographic machines once the productivity rate goes up.
The real hurt will be with Cymer. If Harbin Institute of Technology gets their DPP to 300W power levels, then Cymer's LPP is finished (as of 2010, DPPs generally had lower power levels that LPPs, but enjoyed lower power consumption per photon levels, and had smaller logistical and maintainance footprints).
Well, huawei losing alot of oversea handset markets due to no GMS. Lost over 36% this year so far.
Thats why they need to branch out.
China EUV cost wise is alot cheaper than TSMC , Samsung EUV. Costing them arm and legs.
If China ban US and taiwan semiconductor not sure those companies can continue using EUV due to not enough marketshare to cover their excessive overhead cost.
US putting pressure on Dutch government. Its not ASML to make the call.
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