Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

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AndrewS

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tidalwave said:
Don't worry, US will change to 5%..
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At 5%, basically it starts to look like satellite ITAR licensing.

In other words, every company at every stage needs to start tracking US content, and figuring out who they are selling to.

That WILL kill the US semiconductor and technology industry, because companies can't operate a mass consumer business if they have to do this.
 
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adiru

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AndrewS said:
At 5%, basically it starts to look like satellite ITAR licensing.

In other words, every company at every stage needs to start tracking US content.

That WILL kill the US semiconductor and technology industry.

A company can't operate a mass consumer business if it is always trying to figure out how much US content is contained in its products, and verifying the identifies of all those customers.

So no one will want to put any US technology in any product.
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I sure hope you are right, but also maybe from standpoint of the US it views such an act as attempt to strong arm the rest of the entire world (certainly North America, NATO nations, and Western world) to politically, economically and technologically isolate China as the Pete Buttigieg stated in the last debate he would do if China ever "went hard" on issues like HK/TW or refused to curb its tech ambitions.

Just look at recent developments of the whole NordStream 2 fiasco. America is banning all persons and all companies involved in that, even though it is strictly an affair of trade (energy/gas) of economics between Germany and Russia. Energy commodities isn't even tech. This is nothing to do with IP rights or "national security" / cyber security or anything and they are still going the hard on sanctions route against an "allies". Imagine what could be in store for "the" geopolitical foe of China.
 
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AndrewS

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adiru said:
I sure hope you are right, but also maybe from standpoint of the US it views such an act as attempt to strong arm the rest of the entire world (certainly North America, NATO nations, and Western world) to politically, economically and technologically isolate China as the Pete Buttigieg stated in the last debate he would do if China ever "went hard" on issues like HK/TW or refused to curb its tech ambitions.

Just look at recent developments of the whole NordStream 2 fiasco. America is banning all persons and all companies involved in that, even though it is strictly an affair of trade (energy/gas) of economics between Germany and Russia. Energy commodities isn't even tech. This is nothing to do with IP rights or "national security" / cyber security or anything and they are still going the hard on sanctions route against an "allies". Imagine what could be in store for "the" geopolitical foe of China.
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Yes. But lashing out won't really help the situation.

China has to create an alternative architecture (financial, technological etc).

But to do that, the economy needs to grow larger.
6% growth per year takes the economy from $27Trillion to $38Trillion in PPP terms by 2025.
China increasing R&D spending from 2.2% today to 2.6% in 2025 is also feasible.

So R&D spending in China doubles by 2025, and China ends up spending more on R&D than the US plus its allies.
 
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styx

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i think that usa can't isolate china from technology and financial system, the price will be too high and usa will lose allies (turkey is just on the way). I think that it will all end in a stalemate.
 
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adiru

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styx said:
i think that usa can't isolate china from technology and financial system, the price will be too high and usa will lose allies (turkey is just on the way). I think that it will all end in a stalemate.
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Absent some sort of nuclear exchange/war (in which in that worst case then all bets are off the table) long term structurally I don't see how the US can hope to maintain its uni-polar status for too much longer. It was clear on the American side they wanted China to voluntarily concede and agree to curb its own tech rise ambitions. No sovereign nation would/should ever agree to such unequal terms. In terms of geopolitical hegemonies China is trying to offer the world a "better deal" (via OBOR/BRI etc) and the US may strongly feel that it is being "undercut" and that its an affront to the "exceptionalism" aura that it has built since WWII. I feel many people in Huawei, in China and indeed the world at large just didn't expect the US to bring this 'war' to China this quickly, this harshly and with full intent to be the only victor. I mean I had a feeling it was only matter of time, but I now believe we are already in the midst of this so called "inflection point:", and its only getting to exponentially accelerate from here on out and not at all in any sort of good or peaceful way.
 
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antiterror13

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tidalwave said:
US will announced in Jan 2020 the changes from 25% to 10% US content that will set the threshold forbidding companies supplying Huawei.. Clearly this is targetting TSMC. TSMC did a study and indicates 14nm process has about 15% US content therefore Huawei will not able use TSMC 14nm process. TSMC 7nm process has less than 10% therefore can be used for the time being. But US can change again and lower to like 5%. The goal is stop Huawei supply chain.

If TSMC 14nm has 15% US content , how about SMIC's 14nm ? It's not known yet.
SMIC can potentially dragged into being sanctioned due to US claiming it violating the law of supplying Huawei.

That's why I am promoting Huawei get its own fab and secretly license SMIC14/12nm process and have SMIC engineers secretly setup the fab in the background. This way, it won't implicate SMIC during this battle.

Also this is going to be big. Huawei uses alot fo non US components for replacement but this 10% rule will knock alot of non US suppliers to Huawei out.

Huawei maybe in big trouble this time.
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any links to the news? I highly doubt it to be honest, it will be the last nail for the US tech. More and more companies will be more determined to NOT using US technologies

It is basically abusing the tech power ... and it won't last long .. perhaps short time gain .. but definitely the losing war in the medium to long term
 
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adiru

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antiterror13 said:
any links to the news? I highly doubt it to be honest, it will be the last nail for the US tech. More and more companies will be more determined to NOT using US technologies

It is basically abusing the tech power ... and it won't last long .. perhaps short time gain .. but definitely the losing war in the medium to long term
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According to latest news this is still going forward

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Will take affect on January 17 next year
 
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AndrewS

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styx said:
i think that usa can't isolate china from technology and financial system, the price will be too high and usa will lose allies (turkey is just on the way). I think that it will all end in a stalemate.
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It's not a stalemate if China has an economy and r&d spending twice that of the USA.

It's the USA isolating itself so that it's poorer
 
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