Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

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tidalwave

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Now, China big Fund investment started to withdraw investment on some of the China IC firms. The sector is overheated with too many similar players.
Actually, some IC firms are shams or scams for government funding. Way too many of them going Fabless route,design AI chips, CPU, all digital chips and hand off to taiwan and korea for manufacturing. Some of the more establishes ones are also fabless, Huawei, ZTE, Loongson, Shenwei, Rockchip, Allwinner, Zhaoxin, etc.

I start to think now that going Fabless doesn't really give China the needed value which is the patchup of weakness in semiconductor manufacturing,
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Now, China big Fund investment started to withdraw investment on some of the China IC firms. The sector is overheated with too many similar players.
Actually, some IC firms are shams or scams for government funding. Way too many of them going Fabless route,design AI chips, CPU, all digital chips and hand off to taiwan and korea for manufacturing. Some of the more establishes ones are also fabless, Huawei, ZTE, Loongson, Shenwei, Rockchip, Allwinner, Zhaoxin, etc.

I start to think now that going Fabless doesn't really give China the needed value which is the patchup of weakness in semiconductor manufacturing,
Such a farce. China pride itself as world manufacturing base on everything. Then when comes Semiconductor, almost every one runs away from it and do design.
I guess taking easy way out or fast est way to wealth is too much ingrained in the Chinese culture.
It's very hard to change this behavior and habit.
Maybe US government continuous Prosecution of Huawei's supply chain is much needed force to rectify this bad ingrained habit
 
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Xizor

Captain
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Such a farce. China pride itself as world manufacturing base on everything. Then when comes Semiconductor, almost every one runs away from it and do design.
I guess taking easy way out or fast est way to wealth is too much ingrained in the Chinese culture.
It's very hard to change this behavior and habit.
Maybe US government continuous Prosecution of Huawei's supply chain is much needed force to rectify this bad ingrained habit
Enough man!:rolleyes:
I mean... I , you, everyone with half a brain gets that China is trailing in fab department. Instead of discussing what can be/ should be done, I think it'd be better if we just follow what is actually done. Because discussing "what should be done" always ends up with pessimism and discomfort.
 

tidalwave

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Enough man!:rolleyes:
I mean... I , you, everyone with half a brain gets that China is trailing in fab department. Instead of discussing what can be/ should be done, I think it'd be better if we just follow what is actually done. Because discussing "what should be done" always ends up with pessimism and discomfort.

That's dumb not realizing the mistakes you have committed meaning you will continue to make them in the future. It's what critical analysis and soul searching is al!about

I don't think you get it. I am not permissimitic, there are option a, b, c , d all lining up in the horizon that can be utilized. Hands are busy, no time for pessimistic

My thread of China doing their own EUV lithography even now might one day catapult thethem ahead of Tawian and Korea because those two don't even bother to do it, just rely on western countries.

Had they prioritize being independent without using western equipment at the beginning meaning in the 80s they start pushing for equipment research they will see different scenario.

The equipment is all physics, laser, optics, a lot of the stuffs similar to their military research in nuclear weapons and satellite sensors.
they just chose not to focus on IC equipment.

Why research on semiconductor equipment or even make IC when they can just buy t hem back in the days.

similar to they have up on Y10 plane in 80s because Boeing convinced it to buy it because it's cheaper.China regrets big time giving up on that project.

And yes, China bought into what US sold them the idea of division of labor.
 
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adiru

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Other weak spots include software ( Windows, Andriod, stuff like adobe suite, autodesk suite, cadence, visual studio, server os, etc) and not to mention home grown jet engines and many other things
 

tidalwave

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Other weak spots include software ( Windows, Andriod, stuff like adobe suite, autodesk suite, cadence, visual studio, server os, etc) and not to mention home grown jet engines and many other things

Softwares in general arent as critical.
Easily obtained in the black market.
A dime a dozen

Except OS for phone like Huawei inpendent OS for phone and alot of apps needed
 

Hadoren

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At this point TSMC and those European and Asian companies will discover, shockingly, that their content is actually less than 10% American (or 5% American, or 1% American).

The question is what happens next. America will try to enforce its sanctions. But how, and what will be the result? Will America sanction or fine TSMC? Will America start pressuring Asian and European governments? Will Trump threaten to put tariffs on Japanese cars, or withdraw troops from South Korea, unless their countrys' companies stop supplying Huawei? And if that happens, how will those Asian and European countries respond? It's a great unknown.
US will announced in Jan 2020 the changes from 25% to 10% US content that will set the threshold forbidding companies supplying Huawei.. Clearly this is targetting TSMC. TSMC did a study and indicates 14nm process has about 15% US content therefore Huawei will not able use TSMC 14nm process. TSMC 7nm process has less than 10% therefore can be used for the time being. But US can change again and lower to like 5%. The goal is stop Huawei supply chain.

If TSMC 14nm has 15% US content , how about SMIC's 14nm ? It's not known yet.
SMIC can potentially dragged into being sanctioned due to US claiming it violating the law of supplying Huawei.

That's why I am promoting Huawei get its own fab and secretly license SMIC14/12nm process and have SMIC engineers secretly setup the fab in the background. This way, it won't implicate SMIC during this battle.

Also this is going to be big. Huawei uses alot fo non US components for replacement but this 10% rule will knock alot of non US suppliers to Huawei out.

Huawei maybe in big trouble this time.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
At this point TSMC and those European and Asian companies will discover, shockingly, that their content is actually less than 10% American (or 5% American, or 1% American).

The question is what happens next. America will try to enforce its sanctions. But how, and what will be the result? Will America sanction or fine TSMC? Will America start pressuring Asian and European governments? Will Trump threaten to put tariffs on Japanese cars, or withdraw troops from South Korea, unless their countrys' companies stop supplying Huawei? And if that happens, how will those Asian and European countries respond? It's a great unknown.

that would be extremely embarrassing for the US ... against one single company Huawei? .. and the impact to the US tech is huge .. nobody would trust American tech anymore ... and trying harder and harder to avoid it .. remember .. need is the mother of invention
 

adiru

Junior Member
Registered Member
But wasnt it Steve Bannon who said killing huawei is ten times more important than signing trade deal? He is now gaining back in favor with Trump. Apparently US thinks if Huawei falls, so too does Chinese hi tech ambitions. One has to wonder if AT&T wasnt forced to rip up the Huawei deal last 2018, if Huawei CFO wasnt kidnapped by five eyes, if huawei wasnt put on entity list, if Pompeo didnt do international blackballing of Huawei, etc where Huawei would be today and how different the landscape would be in the future. There is no denying that US actions have effected negative impact on Huawei and China. In the final analysis of whether it achieves its intended long term goal is still an open question, dependant upon how Huawei and China and the world chooses to respond....
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
That's dumb not realizing the mistakes you have committed meaning you will continue to make them in the future. It's what critical analysis and soul searching is al!about

I don't think you get it. I am not permissimitic, there are option a, b, c , d all lining up in the horizon that can be utilized. Hands are busy, no time for pessimistic

My thread of China doing their own EUV lithography even now might one day catapult thethem ahead of Tawian and Korea because those two don't even bother to do it, just rely on western countries.

Had they prioritize being independent without using western equipment at the beginning meaning in the 80s they start pushing for equipment research they will see different scenario.

The equipment is all physics, laser, optics, a lot of the stuffs similar to their military research in nuclear weapons and satellite sensors.
they just chose not to focus on IC equipment.

Why research on semiconductor equipment or even make IC when they can just buy t hem back in the days.

similar to they have up on Y10 plane in 80s because Boeing convinced it to buy it because it's cheaper.China regrets big time giving up on that project.

And yes, China bought into what US sold them the idea of division of labor.
The Y-10 was cancelled because of engines/ avionics / safety considerations. The Y-10, from the beginning, had no chance against the Boeing, Airbus, McDonnell Douglass offerings as they had time, resources and experiences on their side.It is just nothing short of a surprise that China managed to produce the Y-10. It is a testament to China's willpower.
The Y-10 was a Maoist Aircraft that was produced as a people's aircraft. It was bound for failure.
When China was ravaged by war,poverty and internal strife from the 1900s to 1970s - other countries were having Jumbo jets, Nuclear powered Cruise Ships, Moon landings, Nuclear Arms race, Jet powered trains and what not.
China missed that bus. In fact, China missed many buses. China missed the steam revolution, the diesel revolution, Electric Motor revolution, Atomic revolution ... the list is too long. China missed the semiconductor uprising of the late 1970s even. We all know what China was back then. It was no much better than Sub Saharan Africa.
We ought to be thankful that China could catch up somewhat and be here. Never in history has this country been this strong, comprehensively.

All the ills that we attribute to China's trailing in technology can be retraced back to this lost century of humiliation and Self Harm. There is no use flagging the country/ decision makers because I don't think they could do much better. In fact, I am surprised that China had initiated a semiconductor Action plan back in 1980s. That is nothing short of being daredevilry and blatant resolve.

Trade and Politics ( geopolitics, ideology) are intertwined. No matter how much we try to show a blind eye...it is always the case. You said China could have had a better present if China took the right decision during the 1980s. Frankly, I disagree. China would have never succeeded then. How am I sure ? Because China's ideology wasn't in agreement with the west. Fundamentally speaking, it was geopolitics that helped China with the opening up under Deng. The Sino-Soviet split forced the west to side with China. China was the lesser threat.
China tried to gain from that brief period of China-West rapprochement.

1. The Y-10, was shelved and McDonnell Douglass ( now part of Boeing, but then a giant) offered the MD-80 and MD-90 for China to manufacture. That was a golden deal. China could learn new and advanced Aerospace manufacturing techology.
2. The French cooperated in Turboshaft engines and Helicopters. The effects exists till this day. Chinese Helicopters have a huge french influence and content.
3. Japanese Investments started flowing to China

etc
 
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