Future PLAN orbat discussion

blindsight

Junior Member
Registered Member
The problem with 052D is that it takes too long to build. It is too complex. The thing about platforms like 054A is that you could build lots of them in a short period of time, and they are expendable. For 052Ds and 055s, once you lose them, it will take quite a while to replace them. Another option is to build a few modern day battleship type vessels capable of surviving multiple direct hits from anti-ship missiles (as long as the propulsion system is protected). But I am not sure how much such a ship would cost. Admiral Ma Weiming did mention something about a modern multipurpose capital ship 全能舰 power by IEP, but I am not sure if he has surviving punishments in mind.
As for the so called "全能舰" (all-purpose warship), I'm not a fan of this idea. It's basically a modern-day battle ship. For coastal defenses, it's totally redundant, whereas for blue-water operations, you still need CVs with or without the all-purpose warships.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Long-range SAMs require capable radars such as the 364A AESA, so the 054X you mentioned will by no means be much cheaper than the 052D. I see your point, but if you want to achieve that goal, you may think about building even smaller ships and distribute the systems you need among a larger fleet. The problem is this network may work well for coastal defenses, but PLAN also have to prepare for the scenario China has to project its naval power overseas, which will be inevitable with the Belt & Road initiative in mind.

Any BRI contingencies are secondary. Plus China will likely have vastly more naval power in these scenarios

It's high-intensity conflict within the 2nd Island Chain which forms the key planning scenarios.
These scenarios are where the Chinese military would be hard-pressed to win
 

blindsight

Junior Member
Registered Member
Any BRI contingencies are secondary. Plus China will likely have vastly more naval power in these scenarios

It's high-intensity conflict within the 2nd Island Chain which forms the key planning scenarios.
These scenarios are where the Chinese military would be hard-pressed to win
As for the conflict within the 2nd Island Chain, It may make sense to build a network of a lot of smaller and cheaper surface combatants with distributed sensors and weapons. However, whenever that kind of conflict really happens, it won't be an isolated event. The QUAD may block Indian Ocean trade routes as well. PLAN has to have that in mind. It will never be a solely 1st or 2nd Island Chains thing.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
As for the conflict within the 2nd Island Chain, It may make sense to build a network of a lot of smaller and cheaper surface combatants with distributed sensors and weapons. However, whenever that kind of conflict really happens, it won't be an isolated event. The QUAD may block Indian Ocean trade routes as well. PLAN has to have that in mind. It will never be a solely 1st or 2nd Island Chains thing.

Chinese military superiority over the 1st Island Chain and the 2nd Island Chain is the key priority

There's no point in worrying about distant trade routes in the Indian Ocean if your homeports are being attacked
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
If you fit a more powerful and longer-ranged radar onto a Type-054 to fire longer-ranged missiles, you're better off with a bigger hull.
A 150-ish engagement range doesn't require overly powerful radar installation, by modern standards. It also won't bring significant role conflict b/n HQ-16 and HQ-9 equipped ships. Esp. so with ARH missiles.

1. I seriously suspect that it'll be done(if not already?) at some point in the future - simply by adding a lofted/semi-ballistic trajectory option.
2. The point of such capability is to keep at bay small-to-medium-sized, gliding(SDB) and/or powered(SPEAR) munition carriers.
 

blindsight

Junior Member
Registered Member
Chinese military superiority over the 1st Island Chain and the 2nd Island Chain is the key priority

There's no point in worrying about distant trade routes in the Indian Ocean if your homeports are being attacked
It's not enough to just focus on the Island Chains.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
It's not enough to just focus on the Island Chains.

Well, China's core territorial disputes are within the 1st Island Chain
China only cares about the 2nd Island Chain because outside military forces can project power from there

If China can achieve and hold its objectives within the 1st Island Chain and 2nd Island Chain, there's no reason for China to continue with any conflict

And if outside forces cannot dislodge China from the 1st Island Chain, there's no reason for outside forces to continue a conflict either
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Chinese military superiority over the 1st Island Chain and the 2nd Island Chain is the key priority

There's no point in worrying about distant trade routes in the Indian Ocean if your homeports are being attacked

I think China has achieved military superiority within 1st island chain, now heading to to the much more challenging the 2nd island chain, I think it will be achieved in 2025
 

ChongqingHotPot92

Junior Member
Registered Member
Chinese military superiority over the 1st Island Chain and the 2nd Island Chain is the key priority

There's no point in worrying about distant trade routes in the Indian Ocean if your homeports are being attacked
I think the Soviet Navy did a pretty good job balancing both needs, except they did not have the economic capacity to maintain such fleet. The Soviet had hundreds of Type-054A style frigates (but with older radars and no VLS), corvettes, and Foxtrot/Romeo for distributed coastal defense. Yet they also got ships like Kiev, Slava, Kirov, Akula, Oscar, etc. for projecting power on the open seas and protecting sea lanes of communication. I think Ma's all-purpose ships could fill the role of the Kirov and Slava, but with much greater land attack and ABM capabilities.
 

blindsight

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, China's core territorial disputes are within the 1st Island Chain
China only cares about the 2nd Island Chain because outside military forces can project power from there

If China can achieve and hold its objectives within the 1st Island Chain and 2nd Island Chain, there's no reason for China to continue with any conflict

And if outside forces cannot dislodge China from the 1st Island Chain, there's no reason for outside forces to continue a conflict either
Totally disagree...
 
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