Future PLAN orbat discussion

Tam said:

What are commercial shipping going to do for trade then? What about those that need to go to Africa, Australia, and the Middle East?

That is what China has to invest on, both a strong navy and a longer ranged projection of power.

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Until China can come up with its own fleet of 10 aircraft carriers which can obtain blue-water maritime supremacy, China will have to accept that the US Navy will control the waters past the 2nd Island Chain. That is the harsh reality.

Eventually, I expect China will build such a fleet, but it will take at least 2 decades.

In the meantime, a neutral ASEAN will allow much Chinese trade to be trans-shipped past the 2nd Island Chain.

And the objective should be to persuade the US that going to war with China is not in its interest.

From a military point of view, that comes from building a Chinese military that can win where it matters in the Western Pacific.

So that there is no reason for the US to start or continue a pointless war that it can't win.

Yes, this does require China to build a much larger Navy and other long range power projection systems.

regarding to this sentence of yours:

AndrewS said:

In the meantime, a neutral ASEAN will allow much Chinese trade to be trans-shipped past the 2nd Island Chain.

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in wartime the USN would be interdicting vessels going from/to China like tankers in the Indian Ocean, I guess

Jura said:

regarding to this sentence of yours:
in wartime the USN would be interdicting vessels going from/to China like tankers in the Indian Ocean, I guess

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Yes, but tankers still have to go to Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia etc.

Then some of the oil can be repurchased and sent to China.

Plus I expect the oil output from Brunei and East Malaysia will be purchased by China.

The oil rigs and Chinese SCS bases are next to each other, and the Chinese Navy will be operating convoys in the area.

AndrewS said:

Yes, but tankers still have to go to Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia etc.

Then some of the oil can be repurchased and sent to China.

...

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oh ... ever heard of
?

Jura said:

oh ... ever heard of

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?

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Of course.

But remember the Chinese Navy controls the waters and airspace over the South China Seas.

It is the Chinese Navy which is trying to keep the SCS sea lanes open, whilst the US Navy is trying to shut down these sea lanes.

China is also at the centre of the Asian/Global trading network, and is the largest trading partner of Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

These small coastal countries need shipping to flow across the SCS.

So if they are forced to choose, they should end up choosing China over the USA.

This choice only becomes stronger as time goes on, because China's economic and military trajectory continues upwards. Eg. The Australian government estimating Chinese economy will grow to 2x the size of the USA by 2030-2035

AndrewS said:

Of course.

But remember the Chinese Navy controls the waters and airspace over the South China Seas. It is the Chinese Navy which is trying to keep the SCS sea lanes open, whilst the US Navy is trying to shut down these sea lanes.

China is also at the centre of the Asian/Global trading network, and is the largest trading partner of Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

These small coastal countries need shipping to flow across the SCS.

So if they are forced to choose, they should end up choosing China over the USA.

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... then their VIPs would need to watch over their heads;

apparently didn't

Jura said:

... then their VIPs would need to watch over their heads;

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apparently didn't

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Then the USA makes an enemy out of ASEAN which comprises 600 million people.

Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar are already pro-China. When you add Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, you already have a majority of the countries in ASEAN

ASEAN overall turns into an anti-USA and pro-China bloc, but which is officially neutral.

Way to go USA.

AndrewS said:

Then the USA makes an enemy out of ASEAN which comprises 600 million people.

ASEAN overall turns into an anti-USA and pro-China bloc.

Way to go USA.

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you've now made an inspiring post Andy;

WW3 in the Far East would be, while compared to WW2 in the Far East, sort of swapped Japan-China

(I mean during such WW3, China would occupy S. Korea, or let Comrade Kim take it, and parts of Japan -- while during WW2 parts of China were occupied by Japan)

(I also mean areas down to Australia would join China -- while during WW2 areas down to Australia were conquered by Japan)

(India was too big to taken by Japan during WW2, under the circumstances, and would be too big to be taken by China in WW3, under the circumstances)

LOL I leave out Russia because I'm kinda

plus I hope I didn't break some SDF rule or something now

Jura said:

you've now made an inspiring post Andy;

WW3 in the Far East would be, while compared to WW2 in the Far East, sort of swapped Japan-China

(I mean during such WW3, China would occupy S. Korea, or let Comrade Kim take it, and parts of Japan -- while during WW2 parts of China were occupied by Japan)

(I also mean areas down to Australia would join China -- while during WW2 areas down to Australia were conquered by Japan)

(India was too big to take during WW2, under the circumstances, and would be too big to take by China in WW3)

LOL I leave out Russia because I'm kinda

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

ASEAN would still be officially neutral, but there would be a definite pro-China leaning.

As for China occupying other countries, it's unlikely to happen. There's no need to, as long there is a neutral or friendly government. China would have enough economic influence to do this.

That is not to say that China wouldn't invade or attack another country, but a prolonged occupation is not necessary. Nor would the idea of China being an occupying power match with the Communist Party founding myth as fighting against nasty colonial powers such as Imperial Japan.

AndrewS said:

ASEAN would still be officially neutral, but there would be a definite pro-China leaning.

As for China occupying other countries, it's unlikely to happen. There's no need to, as long there is a neutral or friendly government. China would have enough economic influence to do this.

That is not to say that China wouldn't invade or attack another country, but a prolonged occupation is not necessary. Nor would the idea of China being an occupying power match with the Communist Party founding myth as fighting against nasty colonial powers such as the British Empire or Imperial Japan.

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25 minutes ago
when I said "parts of Japan" I tried to be subtle, plus wasn't sure about the spelling of geographical names, which I've now checked:

+



on a technical side it's interesting to see you removed "The British Empire" during edit time of
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