Future PLAN Forecast Thread: Number, disposition, etc.

[adeptitus]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

My model borrows heavily from existing Japanese (8-8 Escort Group), Korean (Rapid Reaction Group), and US (Coast Guard) models. I think the suggested models are within reach for the PLAN, though it's questionable if the PRC government would fund such an expansion. 50 new major surface combatants and 30 new submarines will cost a lot of money.

The last Frigate platform that PLAN was happy with for serial production was the Jiangwei-II, of which 10 were produced in an 8-10 year period. The 054, IMO, is based heavily on the La Fayette. Both the Jiangwei-II and 054 are really anti-surface platforms with limited ASW capability. In the model that I envisioned, the CFX would be equipped with more ASW equipment, such as towed sonar array, hull-mounted sonar, ASW missiles, and 1-2 ASW helicopters.

If we look at the Japanese navy, they're very heavy on ASW frigates:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Following their 8-8 model, I'd organize the PLAN Fleet's Escort Group with a mix of air-defense destroyers (CDX) and ASW frigates (CFX). When PLAN's technology has matured to KDX-III level, the future CDX-II Destroyers can have land-attack configuration via long-range cruise missiles, while the CFX-II would resemble Italian ASW FREMM Frigates.

Rather than aircraft carriers, I envision rapid reaction force grouped around LPX-like platform, with 6-12 helicopters. The reason is because all of PRC's maritime claims are within the "first island chain" area. The PLAN doesn't have to defend far-away islands like the RN does with Falklands. Most areas within the first island chain should be within PLANAF strike range.

Going beyond the first island chain, the rapid reaction group can be deployed for disaster relief operations, UN missions, or extended blue-water training trips.

As for the SSBN force, I'd lean toward the US model of putting SSBN's under navy's command. With 3 SSBN's, the PLAN should be able to have at least 1 out of 3 deployed at all times by 2016. By 2026 the PLAN should field at least 8+ SSBN's, with 2 pairs of 2 out on patrol in primary-backup role, escorted by SSN's, as well as additional LPX like ships and 1 carrier.

 

[tphuang]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

My model borrows heavily from existing Japanese (8-8 Escort Group), Korean (Rapid Reaction Group), and US (Coast Guard) models. I think the suggested models are within reach for the PLAN, though it's questionable if the PRC government would fund such an expansion. 50 new major surface combatants and 30 new submarines will cost a lot of money.

The last Frigate platform that PLAN was happy with for serial production was the Jiangwei-II, of which 10 were produced in an 8-10 year period. The 054, IMO, is based heavily on the La Fayette. Both the Jiangwei-II and 054 are really anti-surface platforms with limited ASW capability. In the model that I envisioned, the CFX would be equipped with more ASW equipment, such as towed sonar array, hull-mounted sonar, ASW missiles, and 1-2 ASW helicopters.

If we look at the Japanese navy, they're very heavy on ASW frigates:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Following their 8-8 model, I'd organize the PLAN Fleet's Escort Group with a mix of air-defense destroyers (CDX) and ASW frigates (CFX). When PLAN's technology has matured to KDX-III level, the future CDX-II Destroyers can have land-attack configuration via long-range cruise missiles, while the CFX-II would resemble Italian ASW FREMM Frigates.

Rather than aircraft carriers, I envision rapid reaction force grouped around LPX-like platform, with 6-12 helicopters. The reason is because all of PRC's maritime claims are within the "first island chain" area. The PLAN doesn't have to defend far-away islands like the RN does with Falklands. Most areas within the first island chain should be within PLANAF strike range.

Going beyond the first island chain, the rapid reaction group can be deployed for disaster relief operations, UN missions, or extended blue-water training trips.

As for the SSBN force, I'd lean toward the US model of putting SSBN's under navy's command. With 3 SSBN's, the PLAN should be able to have at least 1 out of 3 deployed at all times by 2016. By 2026 the PLAN should field at least 8+ SSBN's, with 2 pairs of 2 out on patrol in primary-backup role, escorted by SSN's, as well as additional LPX like ships and 1 carrier.

I really do think you are underestimating 054A here. We saw a picture of 054's hull mounted sonar a while back. I know, it's pretty small. But then I looked at a picture of several Russian warships with hull mounted sonar and they aren't that big either. Also, 054A is rumoured to have towed array sonar and the VLS is rumoured to also be able to fire Chinese version of ASROC. If it can also carry a good ASW helicopter, then 054A would really be a capable ASW platform. Also, nobody is saying that 054A in 2012 would be the same as 054A right now. So, PLAN could very well be mass producing 054A, but there would be a progressive upgrade in the capabilities of 054A over the entire production run.

 

[adeptitus]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

I really do think you are underestimating 054A here. We saw a picture of 054's hull mounted sonar a while back. I know it's pretty small. But then I looked at a picture of several Russian warships with hull mounted sonar and they aren't that big either. Also, 054A is rumored to have towed array sonar and the VLS is rumored to also be able to fire Chinese version of ASROC. If it can also carry a good ASW helicopter, then 054A would really be a capable ASW platform. Also, nobody is saying that 054A in 2012 would be the same as 054A right now. So, PLAN could very well be mass producing 054A, but there would be a progressive upgrade in the capabilities of 054A over the entire production run.

(Post revised 10.3.2006, for original post please see 1 post below in Tphuang’s reply)

Hi Tphuang,

Since the 054A isn’t fitted yet, I could only base my assessment on the model pictures:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The rear section of both 054 and 054A (based on model pic) appears to be sized for 1 helicopter only. It doesn’t appear to have extended deck space like the La Fayette, 052, or the De Grasse for towed sonar array/decoy:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

My original hypothetical PLAN modernization plan was too expensive, so I revised it for realism. The assumption is that PLAN finds an ideal FFL, FFG, and DDG platform by 2007 for serial production, which we’ll name FFLx, CFX (Chinese Frigate X), and CDX (Chinese Destroyer X). In the revised hypothetical mode, the PLAN will acquire ships from 2007-2016 at following rate:

1 x FFLx per year (ships built in pairs every 2 years)
1 x CFX per year
1 x CDX per year
1 x Yuan SSK per year
Plus 2-4 each for LHD, 093 SSN, and 094 SSN.


FFLx

The FFLx will serve 2 purposes. The first is to serve as PLAN’s version of the USN LCS, in the Coastal Defense Flotilla Group. The second is to serve as the standard export Frigate/Corvette. The first and most important attribute is cost/performance ratio. Like the F-35, the FFLx needs tight cost control from factory to operating life cycle. The second most important attribute is flexibility through modular design (like LCS).

Hypothetical design specs for FFLx:
Displacement: 2,000 – 3,000 tons
Standard armament: 76mm or 100mm gun, 30mm CIWS
Front munitions module
Aft munitions/equipment module
Aft helicopter landing deck & hanger

Depending on the customer’s needs, the FFLx can be configured with air-defense SAM, SSM, ASW missiles, speed boats, or even emergency medical facility for coast guard operations. To save money the ship could be built to merchant specs instead of military. Externally the ship resembles the 054 or La Fayette.


CFX

The hypothetical CFX resembles an enlarged La Fayette, or the “054B” picture with extended aft-deck (

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

) for ASW equipment. The primary role for CFX is ASW, secondary is air-defense.

Hypothetical specs for CFX:
Displacement: 4,000 – 5,000 tons
Hull-mounted sonar, towed sonar array (ESS-2?)
Acoustic device/decoy launcher (like SSTD/SEA SENTOR)
Weapons:
1 x 76mm or 100mm gun
1 x 48-cel VLS SAM (HQ-16 or SA-N-12)
1 x 8-cel VLS ASW Missile (CY-X or Klub-N)
8 x SSM (YJ-83)
2 x MRL
2 x 30mm CIWS (Type 730)
2 x ASW torpedo launchers
Aviation:
1-2 x ASW Helicopters


CDX

The CDX is based on the 052C platform, with performance similar to KDX-II. The primary mission is to provide fleet air-defense, secondary mission is anti-surface warfare.

Hypothetical specs for CDX:
Displacement: 7,500 - 8,000 tons
Phased array radar system
Integrated combat data system
Bow-mounted sonar, optional towed sonar or acoustic device launcher
Weapons:
1 x 100mm gun
8-16 x SSM (YJ-62)
1 x 48-cel HQ-9 SAM VLS system
1 x HQ-7 point-defense SAM system
1 x 8-cel VLS ASW missile launcher (CY-x or Klub-N)
2 x 30mm CIWS (Type 730)
2-4 x MLR (decoys, ASW rockets, etc.)
2 x ASW torpedo launchers
Aviation: (2 helicopters + hanger)
1 x Ka-28 ASW
1 x Ka-31 AEW

Possible upgrade includes replacing the HQ-7 and Klub-N launchers with an enlarged, Russian common-VLS system that can deploy surface-launch versions of 3M-54 x, 3M-14x, and 91REx. This would give the ship LACM capability.


=========================================


A revised fleet org would look like this (taking account of where currently in-service ships are located):

North Sea Fleet:
- Escort Group:
8 x Destroyers (4xCDX, 2x051C, 2x052)
8 x Frigates (4xCFX, 4x053H3)

-Submarine Group:
4 x Kilo SSK
8 x Yuan SSK
+ PLAN's SSN/SSBN fleet

- Reserve/Training Group:
3 x 053H2 Frigates
~12 x 035 (ES5E) SSK for unified submarine training center

East Sea Fleet:
- Escort Group:
8 x Destroyers (4xCDX, 4xSovremenny)
8-10 x Frigates (4xCFX, 2x054, 2-4x054A)

- Submarine Group:
4 x Kilo SSK
8 x Song SSK

- Reserve/Training Group:
4 x 053H2G Frigates

South Sea Fleet:
- Escort Group
9 x Destroyers (2xCDX, 2x052C, 2x052B, 1x051B, 2x051G)
8 x Frigates (2xCFX, 6x053H3)

- Submarine Fleet:
4 x Kilo SSK
4 x Yuan SSK
6 x 035 (ES5F) SSK

- Reserve/Training:
6 x 053H1G Frigates

Unified Coast Guard Fleet:
Coast Guard ships will have its SSM's and aft weapons removed, helicopter deck added where feasible, plus 1-2 modern CIWS system installed... then painted white with a red stripe. =D
~12 x 051 Coast Guard Frigate
~20 x 053H/053H1 Coast Guard Light Frigate

Rapid Reaction Fleet:
In this scenario, the rapid reaction fleet is formed from existing fleets on as-needed basis, rather than maintained as separate group.

Coastal Defense Flotilla Group
Each fleet would have its local flotilla group with a mix of FFLx and FAC's.

The above list is more affordable for the PLAN, though it'd come up short vs. Japan on a ship-to-ship comparison.

 

[tphuang]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

Hi Tphuang,

Since the 054A isn't fitted yet, I could only go on existing 054 pictures and speculated 054A models:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

You'd note that the rear helicopter deck area for the 054 and 054A model are sized for 1 helicopter. Comparred to the French La Fayette, which is much larger/longer:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The La Fayette has space in aft section for below-deck installation of AN/SLQ-25 system. Actually, if the customer wanted, I think you can even install the traditional mini-sub type towed sonar above deck:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

It's my amateur opinion that, on the 054/054A, there doesn't appear to be space allocated for a towed sonar array, like the DUBV-43/ESS-1 found on the 052:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

My idea of the CFX would resemble an enlarged La Fayette, with towed sonar array in aft section, space for 2 helicopters, and a matchbox type ASW missile launcher sitting where the Crotal SAM unit is on the La Fayette or De Grasse. At this point I don't think the PLAN has matured to common-VLS system. By CFX-II I think they should have it.

Hypothetical specs for CFX:
Displacement: 4,500 - 5,000 tonnes
Length: 140-150 meters
Width: 15-16 meters
Sonar:
Hull-mounted sonar
Towed sonar array
Acoustic device/decoy launcher (like the SSTD/Sea Sentor)
Weapons:
1 x 100mm gun
1 x VLS SAM system
8 x SSMs
1 x Matchbox ASW Missile launcher (like MK-112) or VLS system like RUM-139
2 x ASW torpedo launcher
2 x Multiple Rocket Launchers (decoys, ASW rockets, etc)
2 x 30mm CIWS
Aviation:
1-2 x Helicopters

==================

For the CDX, I envision a ship that resembles a hybrid between 052C and KDX-II. Like the CFX I assume the technology/development has not reached common-VLS system, so the ship would have multiple different weapon launch platforms. By CDX-II, that technology should be there and the ship would resemble the KDX-III.

Hypothetical specs for CFX:
Displacement: 7,500 - 8,000 tonnes
Sensors:
Phased array radar system
Integrated combat data system
Bow-mounted sonar
Towed sonar array
Acoustic device/decoy launcher (like the SSTD/Sea Sentor)
Weapons:
1 x 100mm gun
8 x SSM
1 x VLS long-range SAM system
1 x Point-defense SAM system like RAM (improved HQ-7?)
1 x Match-box type ASW Missile launcher (like MK-112) or VLS system like RUM-139
2 x 30mm CIWS
2-4 x MLR (decoys, ASW rockets, etc.)
2 x ASW torpedo launchers
Aviation:
1-2 Helicopters


Looking at my original post, I think it's... very costly. Assuming if the PLAN gets funding at current level, they may be able to afford new ships from 2007-2016 (10 years) at following rate:
1 x CDX per year (produced in pairs every 2 years)
1 x CFX per year
1 x Yuan SSK per year
Plus 2-4 each for LHDx, 093 SSN, and 094 SSBN.

A revised fleet org would look like this (taking account of where currently in-service ships are located):

North Sea Fleet:
- Escort Group:
8 x Destroyers (4xCDX, 2x051C, 2x052)
8 x Frigates (4xCFX, 4x053H3)

-Submarine Group:
4 x Kilo SSK
8 x Yuan SSK
+ PLAN's SSN/SSBN fleet

- Reserve/Training Group:
3 x 053H2 Frigates
~12 x 035 (ES5E) SSK for unified submarine training center

East Sea Fleet:
- Escort Group:
8 x Destroyers (4xCDX, 4xSovremenny)
8 x Frigates (4xCFX, 2x054, 2x054A)

- Submarine Group:
4 x Kilo SSK
8 x Song SSK

- Reserve/Training Group:
4 x 053H2G Frigates

South Sea Fleet:
- Escort Group
9 x Destroyers (2xCDX, 2x052C, 2x052B, 1x051B, 2x051G)
8 x Frigates (2xCFX, 6x053H3)

- Submarine Fleet:
4 x Kilo SSK
4 x Yuan SSK
6 x 035 (ES5F) SSK

- Reserve/Training:
6 x 053H1G Frigates

Unified Coast Guard Fleet:
Coast Guard ships will have its SSM's and aft weapons removed, helicopter deck added where feasible, plus 1-2 modern CIWS system installed... then painted white with a red stripe. =D
~12 x 051 Coast Guard Frigate
~20 x 053H/053H1 Coast Guard Light Frigate

Rapid Reaction Fleet:
In this scenario, the rapid reaction fleet is formed from existing fleets on as-needed basis, rather than maintained as separate group.


The above list is more affordable for the PLAN, though it'd come up short vs. Japan on a ship-to-ship comparison.

not proven, but what I'm saying is that you are basing your analysis on what you saw on 054. You have to realize that 054's displacement is a 80% increase from Jiangwei, but uses virtually the same armament. Now, 054A is a further improvement on that in terms of displacement. So, it's quite possible that 054A has already reached the size that you mentionned for CFX. And then with that increased space, it has room for all of the systems you mentionned. And also, you haven't seen anything but the front of 054A, so you don't know what it has or don't have. We do know that 4 054As are getting built concurrently, so that shows China is satisfied with this 054 design. And future CFX as you mentionned would probably be refinement of this.

 

[adeptitus]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

not proven, but what I'm saying is that you are basing your analysis on what you saw on 054. You have to realize that 054's displacement is a 80% increase from Jiangwei, but uses virtually the same armament. Now, 054A is a further improvement on that in terms of displacement. So, it's quite possible that 054A has already reached the size that you mentionned for CFX. And then with that increased space, it has room for all of the systems you mentionned. And also, you haven't seen anything but the front of 054A, so you don't know what it has or don't have. We do know that 4 054As are getting built concurrently, so that shows China is satisfied with this 054 design. And future CFX as you mentionned would probably be refinement of this.

Aye, but we'll just have to wait until the 054A hits water, then we can look at its rear to see what's there.

I envision the CFX to be what 052 should've been. The Luhu class Destroyer had imported French sonar suite & towed sonar array, but the ASW weapons came up short without the CY-1 launcher.

The hypothetical CFX, would resemble an enlarged 054, with similiar displacement to the 052, sonar based on hybrid Chinese-French technology, and ASW missile launcher (CY-X or Klub-N?).

With the current trend of "up-tonnage", my estimates for CFX and CDX would look like this:

CFX: 4,500 - 5,000 tonnes (similiar displacement as 052)
CFX-II: ~6,000 tonnes (FREMM size)
CDX: 7,500 - 8,000 tonnes (enlarged 052C)
CDX-II: ~10,000 tonnes loaded (KDX-III size w/LACMs)

The up-tonnege and added systems to modern ships will make them quite expensive, which is why I had doubts to my original hypothetical production estimates.

One part of the surface fleet that I left out was the Coastal Defense Flotilla Group. In the beginning I think it'd have mosty 500-1000 tonne FAC's. As the Navy goes through up-tonnege process, you could add USN-LCS type ships in the 2,000 to 3,000 tonne range to the Coastal Defense Flotilla.

With PLAN's current level of naval technology, I don't think it'd be too difficult for them to build a smaller, faster version of the 054 with modular design like the LCS. These would be like the new Jiangwei-class like ships, smaller, cheaper, easy to mass produce, and affordable to export customers.

 

[adeptitus]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

After reading through the FFG 054/054A, Ideal PLAN Frigate, and Ideal PLAN DDG threads, I've completely revised my original projections on the "ideal" (but realistic) PLAN roster for 2007-2015.

The new projection is based on the following criteria:
* Major surface warships only. Submarines and minor/support vessels are excluded.
* 2-phase time line. Phase 1 is the beginning (~2007) when many systems are Russian imports. Phase 2 is the end (~2015) where most systems become domestic, which can mean licensed copy, improved copy, domestic-made, or even co-developed (Russia-PRC) products.
* Simplified descriptions: Rather than going into details like "4 x 153E 10-barrel RL with xxx rounds", I'll just put "ASW MLRS".
* Realistic assumptions based on avail of weapon systems (Russian systems listed in Rosoboronexport catalog), budget, and recent PLAN shipbuilding trends.
* Minor shipboard weapon systems are excluded from description. i.e. small arms, MANPADs, anti-diver sonar & grenades, etc.

Phase 1: (2007-2015)

In Phase-1, we find the PLAN lacking in many systems, such as ASROC, modern towed array sonar, ASW/AEW helicopter, etc. To address these short-comings, the following systems will be acquired from Russia. If the PLAN is satisfied with their performance, then they'd purchase license to produce them domestically, and eventually made improved variants.

* Russian ASROC: There are 2 possibilities. The first is 91RTE2 Club-N in 4 or 8-cel 3S-14E Kalibr-NKE VLS. The second is RPK-9 Medvedka in elevating 4 or 8-cel box launcher, or the 6-cel Medvedka-VE VLS system.
* Russian MLRS rockets: Of particlar interest, the 111SG ASW rocket, 111SZ Torpedo barrage rocket, 111SO acoustic decoy rocket, & 90R guided ASW rocket. Chinese MLRS is mostly based on Russian systems, so adopting Russian-made rockets and guidance systems shouldn't be too hard. Alternatively, we could just import the RKPTZ-1E, RPK-8, or PK-10E RL system.
* Sonar: For larger ships, Zarya-Me sonar suite with underkeel, towed, and dipping sonar array. For smaller ships, MGK-334/345 series sonar (with towed/dipping array).
* Paket-E/NK 324mm anti-torpedo rocket: This is a small ASROC that targets incoming torpedos, typically come in quad-box config.
* PMK-2 ASW Mine: This is an ASW torpedo mine that you could set for automatic attack and leave it sitting on the bottom of the ocean floor. It can be programmed to ignore surface ships.
* Russian ASW and AEW Helicopters. They're better than the Z-9C, so we still have to import Ka-28 and Ka-31.
* Radar, fire-control, and integrated command systems such as the AMGA submarine detection system that can work with 20 networked sonars.

In addition, we'll also assume that the PLAN will field the following:
* New 76mm ship gun
* HQ-16 VLS in 8-cel config

In phase 1, we'll start with latest PLAN ship designs:
054X: based on 054/054A
051X: based on 051C
052X: based on 052C


The 054X will come in 2 flavors: ASW and GP (General Purpose). The ASW version will be equipped with imported Russian ASW hardware, and the GP version will replace the F-22P as China's next-generation export Frigate.

The 054X-ASW will be equipped with ASW sonar suite (Zarya-ME), AMGA integrated submarine detection system, ASW/Decoy MLRS, Paket-E/NK anti-torpedo system, Russian ASROC, 76mm gun, Ka-28 ASW helicopter + hanger, 2 x Type 730 CIWS, and medium-range air-defense missile (32 x HQ-16 or 24 x SA-N-12). Optional systems include PMK-2 ASW Mine, Chinese or Russian ASW torpedos, and YJ-83 SSM.

A "balanced" loadout would have 4 x YJ-83 SSM, 4 x 91RTE2 ASROC, 4 x Paket-E/NK rockets, 32 x HQ-16, 76mm gun, 2 x Type 730 CIWS, ASW/Decoy MLRS, & Ka-28 helicopter. If there's space, add a few light ASW torpedos.

The 054X-GP General Purpose Frigate will have mostly domestic systems, including 76mm gun, 32 x HQ-16, 8 x YJ-83, 2 x Type 730 CIWS, ASW torpedos, ASW/Decoy MLRS, ASW helicopter, and optional ASW sonar & ASROC systems. For export, the ship would prolly be fitted with C-802's.


The 051X will be configured as ASW destroyer, with integrated sonar suite (like 054X-ASW), 8 x YJ-83, 8 x 91RTE2 ASROC, 8 x Paket-E/NK rockets, Medium or Long-range SAM, Light ASW Torpedos, 1-2 ASW helicopter, ASW/Decoy MLRS, 2 x Type 730 CIWS, 76mm or 100mm gun, and optional PMK-2 ASW mine.

The 052X will be configured as Air-Defense DDG, with advanced phased-array radar, long-range SAM, 76 or 100mm gun, 2 x Type 730 CIWS, 8 x YJ-62, ASW torpedos, ASW/Decoy MLRS, Ka-28 ASW Heliocpter, Ka-31 ASW Helicopter, 4-8 x Russian ASROC, and optional ASW sonar suite.


Production rate: based on historical PLAN shipbuilding rate, I'd estimate 4 x 054X, 2 x 051X, and 2 x 052X every 2 years. Over a 10 year period, the potential serial production rate would produce:
20 x 054X ASW/GP FFX
10 x 051X ASW DDG
10 x 052X ADS DDG

In addition, the PLAN should be building bigger versions of the LHD, in flat-top LPH configuration. The production rate and size of such ships would vary according to PLAN's budget and other limitations. Ideally, the PLAN should form "fast reaction group" centered around a LPH with 4-8 surface escorts.

The flat-top LPH's would be equipped with a mix of imported (Russian) and domestic helicopters. Ka-28 ASW, Ka-31 AEW, Z-8, & Z-9 comes to mind. The Z-8 is based on the SA 321JA Super Frelon, which has the capability to carry a 20mm gun, 2 Exocets, or 4 ASW torpedos. The PRC should build improved variants of this heavy helicopter.

It's also assumed that advancs in weapon systems are made over the 10 years, and the systems installed on these ships will improve over time, while older ships will be retrofitted where feasible.


Phase 2 (~2015)

By phase 2, it's assumed that the PLAN has successfully absorbed imported Russian technology, and has produced domestic versions, as well as making advances on existing domestic systems. For purpose of discussion, we'll assume the following systems were developed:

YJ-6X: Large SSM with secondary land-attack function. 300+ km range.
YJ-8X: Medium SSM with secondary land-attack function. 200+ km range.
YJ-7X: Light SSM, can be carried on helicopters
CY-X: ASROC
YU-X: Light ASW Torpedo
DH-X: Long-range Cruise Missile
ADGMS: Integrated Type 730 CIWs with point-defense SAMs
+ others such as improved MLRS, anti-torpedo ASROC, ASW mine, recon UAV, armed UAV, etc.

Very old ships such as the Luda and Jianghu will be retired, put to reserve, or converted into training ships. The 20 x 054X will replace the ~24 x Jianghu FFG's, and the 10 x 051X & 10 x 052X will replace the ~17 x Luda DDG's. Note that these ship replacement levels are near 1:1 ratio. In other words, the size and organization of the surface fleet, in regards to major surface combatants, will remain about the same in 2015.

Newer ships, such as the Jiangwei, Luhu, etc., will be retrofitted with newer systems. The old 37mm AA and HQ-7 will be replaced with 2-3 ADGMS, SSM & MLRS replaced with newer versions, and ASROC's added where possible.

It's assumed that by 2015 the PLAN would've also developed the next-generation "replacement" FFG and DDG platforms:

CFL: Chinese Light Frigate/Corvette
CFX: Chinese Frigate X
CDX: Chinese Destroyer X

The most important difference from older-generation ships are the modular design, with mission-modules that can be replaced/swapped out as needed.

The CFL, in ASW configuration, will be roughly equal in capability to the new Russian 1,250 ton escort corvette, with ASW sonar suite, ASW weapons, & ASW helicopter. Or, it can be configured for General Purpose export, or search and rescue modules for Coast Guard service. While these Corvettes will be equipped with 2 x ADGMS, they won't carry medium or long-range SAMs.

The CFX will have more space for medium-range SAMs, and can be configured for ASW, ADS, GP, or even anti-surface fire support roles. For the most part, these will serve as the primary ASW platform, with some GP versions.

The CDX will field long-range SAM system with ballistic-missile interception capability. This could be a new co-developed SAM with Russia, improved from the S-400 system. These ships can also be configured to carry LACM's for long-range land-attack modes. It's also assumed that by now the ships are carrying UAV's to supplement helicopters, or possibly even using armed UAV's as weapons.


In addition, by this time the PLAN should be operating large LPH's in the 30,000 - 40,000 ton range, with under-deck helicopter hanger, flat-top helicopter deck, etc. The new "big" project would be 50,000 - 60,000 ton carriers. Hopefully by the time that they're ready (2015-2020), the PLANAF already has domestically-made carrier aircraft, or at least jointly-developed ones such as a navalized version of PAK-FA with Russia.

 

[antiterror13]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

hmmmmmm ... very interesting, I'd imagine Chinese submarine forces will be significantly bigger and much more powerful by then, I still believe the focus of Chinese navy until 2015 is submarine, the cheapest and most logic choice.

How about Chinese aircraft carrier, I expect at least 1 aircraft carrier (probably 2 or 3 ) will be fully operational by 2015, what size, weapon and subsystem will be fitted.

Destroyers and frigates are very important but that's not it, many other forces also important .. ie submarine and carrier

 

[szbd]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

Just found this interesting thread and I'd like to give some opinions myself. I'm looking for an ideal PLAN 10-15 years from now.

First for the objectives, I think "* defeat any navy in the world (except US of course) who would try to get close to Chinese second island chain ... let's say 1,500 miles from Chinese coast." is not necessary. Because there is only one navy to be defeated at that range, that is US navy. But this is impossible. So I say drop this objective.

The 2nd objective is in fact to defeat Japanese navy, and I'd like to change the 3rd one to defeat Indian navy at high sea.

So I'd like to change the objectives as:

1. Defend Chinese coast from a full scale regular attack from US, I'm talking about 6 CBGs, B1, B2, F22, SSGN, etc. The goal is to protect our bases and cities at the coast as much as possible, make sure it will be a really brutal fight that people around the whole world will get really panic if it happend. However, I'm not gonna give any specific design for PLAN for this task. Leave the part that PLAN can't accomplish to PLAAF. I just wanna say this is important.

2. Use half of the force to defeat Japanese navy.

3. Use another half to defeat Indian navy.

I'm not saying China should be able to defeat Japan and India at the same time. Just the PLAN is distributed in a very long range and Japan and India are far away from each other. So I don't think PLAN can use all of her strength for one of the two. But the main force of PLANAF and SSN should be able to join together and fight.

I'd like to change the structure of PLAN a little bit. I think there should be a north command and a south command. These two only control those "big toys" and in charge of major naval warfare. They don't actually "own" anything, their job is to take the units from the fleets, form task forces, then go to war or excercise or long range deployment. North and east fleets will provide resources for north command, and south fleet for south command. The three fleets remain as administrative units and in charge of coastal defense. The real Chinese coast guard remains as police force, I don't think they are capable of a dramatic change in the near future.

I don't expect any major change of designs for main naval combatants in the near future from what we've seen, except I'd like to add a class of cruiser. But I'll leave it afterwards, lets see what we already have (with possible upgrades) first.

Planes:

I think we don't need anymore su30MKs, in stead, China develop a similar version from J11B, call it J11H. J11H escorted by J11B will conduct independent major attach at sea, especially long range. JH7A escorted by J10 will do the smaller range attack and coastal defence.

To engage Japanese navy, PLANAF will be the key. In the north, both China and Japan have air support, in the south, only China has. So, north command will have

150 su30Mk2/J11H
150 J11B(does PLANAF have any Su27 or J11 now?)
100 JH7A
200 J10

south command will have

70 J11H
70 J11B
100 JH7A
100 J10

The numbers are mere roughly. We will need some KJ2000, Y8J, Il78, H6H, H6K, etc, but I won't specify the number of them. Also remember I said, the main force of PLANAF should be able to join together and fight.

SSBNs&SSNs:

I think all the SSBNs should go to north. Because they can be perfectly protected in Bo Hai (Hai=Sea), just in case. This sounds pathetic but I think Chinese SSBNs have no chance to sneak into high sea undiscovered and survive from USN's possible attack. Also, placed in north can give them a shorter distance to US and Europe. Therefore:

north command:

1 092
4 094
4 093

south command:

4 093

I think we should have more 093, but I don't think we will be able to produce more than that in 10 years. All 091 should go to reserves to save the resources for 093.

SSKs

I hope Yuan (with some upgrade) will enter mass production soon and the production of other SSKs will stop. We won't import more Kilos, Lada or European subs are possible but I won't count on it.

From globalsecurity we can see 4 Songs were produced in 2004. So I think it's safe to predict that we can have 40 Yuans in 10-15 years . And I think that's enough. So we will have:

40 Yuan
12 Kilo
12 Song
12 Ming(updated)

I will explain the distribution of SSKs and surface warships later.

Destroyers

I suppose we can have 20 more destoyers including 051C, 052B and 052C, with some upgrade, in 10-15 years. I don't think many changes are needed especially on the hulls. In my opinion, ASW missles on destroyers or frigates are unnecessary because the sea close to Chinese coast (actually not so close, say 200km) is very shallow, and has complicated condition underneath the water. It's hard for a surface ship to detect subs in long range, I'd rather leave the ASW job to SSKs and helicopters. For ASW in high sea, it will be done by cruisers and SSNs, also SSKs and helicopters.

One possible major upgrade is a destroyer with hot VLS, but I'd like to call it still as 052C for convenience. I'm expecting to see (including what we have now):

4 Sov
4 051C
8 052B
14 052C

Frigates

I think 054A is good enough, just produce MANY of them! We already have 2 and 3 in construction now, I also suppose the 2 054 will be upgraded to 054A. So I'm looking for 34 in total.

CV

I only expect one CV in service, at most two. We should have more, but that's not possible. So suppose only one CV, that is Vayag, with 24 Su33 and 10 helicopters on board.

Cruisers

Now here comes the wet dream. I'm expecting 2 but more likely I'll see none. Anyway, this is what I'm dreaming:

13000tons displacement, full load
31 knts max speed
160 hot VLS cells (8x12 at front, 8x8 at rear):
48 HHQx (upgraded version of HHQ9 or SA-N-6 to have a range of 200km and ability to engage AShW missles at high altitude)
64-80 HHQ16
16 Chinese ASROC
16-32 CTF1 (rumored Chinese long range cruiser missile)
4 4-cell YJ62
1 dual 130mm or single tube 100mm main gun
4 730 CIWS
2 3-cell 324mm torpedo
2 Helicopters, ka27 or NH90 level

I also dream about a new generation of Chinese combat system, ARPR, towed array sonar, data link, etc, to be installed.

Can somebody please, please!!, draw a picture of this?

I will not include auxilary ships, boats, and amphibious ships so that's about all. The ships will be distributed as follows.

North command will have two surface battle groups that one of them can defeat a Japanese 10-9 escort team. Similar with adeptitus, I put 8 destoyers and 8 frigates in one group, so in total, north command will have:

4 Sov
4 051C
4 052B
4 052C
16 054A

The SSK force of north command will be nearly doubled as Japanese counter part, that is:

12 Kilo
12 Song
12 Ming

South command will have the strength that with 2/3 of it she can take out the whole Indian navy. I suppose India will have only one CV at that time, with 20+ mig 29K. Since India has a pretty strong SSK force, all 40 Yuans go to South command. We may want to deploy some SSKs in the area and on the way, before the main task force arrives. That will need a lot of subs. South command will also have the only CV of China. So:

1 CV
2 CG
4 052B
10 052C
18 054A
40 Yuan

One task force of south command will have

1 CV
1 CG
2 052B
4 052C
6 054A
2 093

or

2 CG
3 052B
6 052C
12 054A
2-3 093

All 051 and Jianghu will retire, just sell them as steel, to save the logistic resources for new ships. 051III, 052, 051B, JianghuIII/IV/V and JiangweiII (upgrade all Jiangwei to JiangweiII) will do coastal defense, training and escort. They will be gradually retired too.

Now let's look at the budget. I put the total number of each toy below, and estimated new budget needed in "()" with unit value of million USDx(number to be built). Note that the total number and number to be built are different, and the prices are just from guess.

220 su30Mk2/J11H (30x184J11H=5520)
220 J11B (30x220=6600)
200 JH7A (18x200=3600)
300 J10 (20x300=6000)
50 Su33 (30x50=1500)
1 092
4 094 (500x3=1500)
8 093 (400x6=2400)
40 Yuan (150x40=6000)
12 Kilo
12 Song
12 Ming
1 CV (500)
2 CG (1000x2=2000)
4 Sov
4 051C (400x2=800)
8 052B (300x6=1800)
14 052C (400x12=4800)
34 054A (150x27=4050)

So 23.22b for planes, 9.9b for subs, 13.95b for surface ships, total 47.07b. That's about the official military expense of ONLY ONE YEAR! Suppose China spend averagingly 50b USD a year in military during the comming 10 years, and suppose navy will get 30% of it, then that's 150b. That will be more than enough for purchase these toys as well as other toys I didn't mension and maintaining, upgrading, training, ammunition, technology develpment, so on and on. So it's not about money, it's only about production speed.

So I say don't wait for new things, just build them! They are good enough!

 

[antiterror13]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

Thanks SZBD for revising my original scenario. Yours looks more realistic for China. PLAN would be second best navy in the world and could defeat Japanese navy, Korean Navy and Taiwanese Navy at the same time.

PLAN would have about 35% fire power of US Navy, and it would be more than enough.

BUT I doubt $30B would enough for your scenario, perhaps $40B is more realistic.

I would use 091 and 092 for training and 60% ready for deployment at anytime.

Instead of only 2 fleets (North and South) as you mentioned, I would go for 4 fleets instead, North, East, South and West (Gwadar).

In the future, East fleet will be merged with Taiwanese Navy for Pacific operation as I believe it will be no war between China and Taiwan, Taiwan will be part of China peacefully.

North fleet is mostly to counter Japanese Navy

South fleet is to protect South China Sea, including Spratly and Paracel, also to control Vietnamese Navy, Philippine Navy, Indonesian Navy, Malaysian Navy, Singaporean Navy, remember there are a lot of rich Chinese overseas in Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc ...... they need to be protected by strong PLAN

West fleet is to contain Indian Navy and to protect Chinese ships (mostly oil) from middle east and to protect Chinese investment in Africa

Perhaps with West Fleet, the budget will need a little bit bigger, $50B. I don't see any problem with $50 or $60B budget for PLAN as in 10 years time, PLA budget will be around $150B or about $300B PPP

 

[szbd]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

I think what you said here can't be achieved with in 30 years. When PLAN has what I proposed (not including PLANAF), it will be <10% of the strength of USN.