Future PLAN Forecast Thread: Number, disposition, etc.

[antiterror13]

hi folks,

I have been thinking of ideal Chinese navy, not too big but modern and strong enough to :

* defeat any navy in the world (except US of course) who would try to get close to Chinese second island chain ... let's say 1,500 miles from Chinese coast.

*The navy would be strong enough to defeat 3 navies (third rate navies, like Vietnam, Philipina, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, etc) at the same time.

* To defeat any neighbouring strong navies, ie Japanese, Korean, or Russian navies.

I would imagine the backbone of Chinese navy would be like :

1 medium size carrier, 60,00 ton with 30 fighters
100 SU-30 MKK2/3/4
100 JH-7A/B or C
10 52C/D
10 51C/D
6 Sov II/III
20 54A
16 Kilo II
20 Songs II
20 Yuan
5 093
3 094
7 QIANDAOHU CLASS FLEET REPLENISHMENT SHIP

the navy budget would be limited to "only" $30B ( would it be enough ?, please discuss )

would you think It could achieve those objectives ? ..please discuss

remember that $30B in China is worth a lot more than in US

 

[adeptitus]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

If all you're looking for its to keep other people's ships away from your coast, it's not necessary to build a large surface fleet. A few hundred martime strike aircraft, backed by escort fighters, refueling tankers, and long-range anti-ship missiles is sufficient.

The Su-34, for example, has combat radius (w/weapons load) of 1,130 km. Typical martime strike aircraft are equipped with external fuel tanks, couple of AAM's, and 4 anti-ship missiles with max range of 120 km to 300 km. Larger air-launched cruise missiles with 500+ km range have also been known to be adopted for anti-shipping role.

For comparison, a jet aircraft is much, much faster than a surface ship, and if your anti-ship missile has longer range than the ship's anti-air missile, then the ship is basically a sitting duck on receiving end.

The purpose of having navy ships, beyond costal patrol, is to extend your prescence value beyond. For coastal area defense, I think missile frigates/destroyers is either overkill or inferior to land-based strike aircraft vs. hostile ships. Subs may be an exception and may require ASW assets to find, but once detected, it's sitting duck to ASW aircraft dropping torpedos on it.

 

[tphuang]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

hi folks,

I have been thinking of ideal Chinese navy, not too big but modern and strong enough to :

* defeat any navy in the world (except US of course) who would try to get close to Chinese second island chain ... let's say 1,500 miles from Chinese coast.

*The navy would be strong enough to defeat 3 navies (third rate navies, like Vietnam, Philipina, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, etc) at the same time.

* To defeat any neighbouring strong navies, ie Japanese, Korean, or Russian navies.

I would imagine the backbone of Chinese navy would be like :

1 medium size carrier, 60,00 ton with 30 fighters
100 SU-30 MKK2/3/4
100 JH-7A/B or C
10 52C/D
10 51C/D
6 Sov II/III
20 54A
16 Kilo II
20 Songs II
20 Yuan
5 093
3 094
7 QIANDAOHU CLASS FLEET REPLENISHMENT SHIP

the navy budget would be limited to "only" $30B ( would it be enough ?, please discuss )

would you think It could achieve those objectives ? ..please discuss

remember that $30B in China is worth a lot more than in US

hmm, su-30 are definitely no.
I would think about 4 094 are needed for minimum deterrence and probably 6-8 093s.
As for Sov, please no more!
051C/D, I could see 2-4 new ones to give Dalian some work
052C/D, possibly 10 of these or more
054A, a lot are needed. 20-25
Carrier, minimum of 2 are needed. One for south fleet, one for north fleet, Ideally, I'd like to see 1 per fleet.
SSKs, existing 12 kilos and 20+ song/Yuan (see, Yuan is just a larger modification of Song)
Replenishment ship, on top of the existing 7 (881-887), it probably needs to double that number
LPD, 5 type 071s
FACs, 50 type 22s
Corvette, hoping for something like LCS

 

[antiterror13]

If all you're looking for its to keep other people's ships away from your coast, it's not necessary to build a large surface fleet. A few hundred martime strike aircraft, backed by escort fighters, refueling tankers, and long-range anti-ship missiles is sufficient.

The Su-34, for example, has combat radius (w/weapons load) of 1,130 km. Typical martime strike aircraft are equipped with external fuel tanks, couple of AAM's, and 4 anti-ship missiles with max range of 120 km to 300 km. Larger air-launched cruise missiles with 500+ km range have also been known to be adopted for anti-shipping role.

For comparison, a jet aircraft is much, much faster than a surface ship, and if your anti-ship missile has longer range than the ship's anti-air missile, then the ship is basically a sitting duck on receiving end.

The purpose of having navy ships, beyond costal patrol, is to extend your prescence value beyond. For coastal area defense, I think missile frigates/destroyers is either overkill or inferior to land-based strike aircraft vs. hostile ships. Subs may be an exception and may require ASW assets to find, but once detected, it's sitting duck to ASW aircraft dropping torpedos on it.

remember there are 3 objectives, what you have said was just for 1st objective

hmm, su-30 are definitely no.
I would think about 4 094 are needed for minimum deterrence and probably 6-8 093s.
As for Sov, please no more!
051C/D, I could see 2-4 new ones to give Dalian some work
052C/D, possibly 10 of these or more
054A, a lot are needed. 20-25
Carrier, minimum of 2 are needed. One for south fleet, one for north fleet, Ideally, I'd like to see 1 per fleet.
SSKs, existing 12 kilos and 20+ song/Yuan (see, Yuan is just a larger modification of Song)
Replenishment ship, on top of the existing 7 (881-887), it probably needs to double that number
LPD, 5 type 071s
FACs, 50 type 22s
Corvette, hoping for something like LCS

would you think .... $30B budget would be sufficient ? .... I'd like to see Navy, Army and Airforce would get $30B, 25B and $20B respectively and $10B for 2nd artillery

 

[Johnstauffer]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

If your navy is going to include a carrier, then a single carrier is not sufficient.
Carriers need repair and may be out of service for extended periods of time.
With only a single unit, this means that during that time you have no carrier resources.
If your naval strategy is based on the use of power projection via carrier aviation, then at least 2 carriers are the minimum requirement.

Also, carriers & their embarked airgroups need training. With a single platform, this training time will further limit operational availability.
I have heard it said that to maintain 1 carrier & it's associated air group operationally available at all times requires a minimum of 3 carriers.

 

[Gollevainen]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

The purpose of having navy ships, beyond costal patrol, is to extend your prescence value beyond. For coastal area defense, I think missile frigates/destroyers is either overkill or inferior to land-based strike aircraft vs. hostile ships. Subs may be an exception and may require ASW assets to find, but once detected, it's sitting duck to ASW aircraft dropping torpedos on it.

ships of frigate and even destroyer size are far better assets for coastal defences than small and venerable boat category vessels. small coastal units have been build for two reason only; for their cheap cost and simple construction. Chinese "home" waters doesent require substansial unique coastal features that would require specialised desings that would need considerably small size. China has huge coastline and maritime aproaches so defendin them needs good submarine force and surface ones (addition to air assets). And diesel subs arent 'sitting ducks' at any manner. Tracking them down by aircrafts are always in the hands of lady fortuna herself and at anypoint I havent heard anyone in the real maritime cirlces call Airborne ASW as death to all submarine activity. If you have better knowlidge over this claim of you, Im more than happy to hear it out...



What I would like to see in my own "ideal" PLAN would be large force of conventional size diesel subs (Song, Yuan, Kilo classes) as well as strong fleet of 1,500-3,500 ton patrol/guard frigates packed with substansial forces of smaller corvette size ships in dedicated classes for surface attack, coastal escort and submarine hunting. These forces would defend the traditional outher and coastal range, expecially concentrated around extencive mininign technicues and large minefields of modern acoustic and magnetic mines. their task is to prevent enemy MCM forces to clear the mines and to battle the enemy units trying to suport their MCM forces.
With these assets the PLAN can keep its backyard safe and allow little semi strategical capapility to affect on possiple near area enemyes merchant and commercial shipping to their own harm. Also they would ensure near the own coastline bastions for the evitable "deterent" of four to six SSBNs to keep PRC in the superpower legue.
To keep the enemy main fleet units aware and allert, a force of 15-20 SSNs would be good, with good mixture of missile launchers and hunter killers.

 

[renmin]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

The job of the PLAN is to keep the coast lines of the PRC safe from a enemy naval assult. Pesonally, I dont think China needs a huge navy. Just one large enough to repel a enemy invasion. Aircraft carriers are a must have to increase the power of the PLAN.

 

[Jeff Head]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

* To defeat any neighbouring strong navies, ie Japanese, Korean, or Russian navies.

You have a good start, but what you have listed there will not get it done as regards the Japanese Navy (JMSDF) IMHO which currently includes over 50 modern destroyers and frigates, 16-20 modern diesel/electric submarines, over 30 modern minesweepers, three large LPD type amphibious assault vessels, and all of the support, logistical, and auxillary ships to suppor them. They are also very well trained and backed up by a very modern and effective air force. The JMSDF would be a very tough nut to crack in any case, and I believe would be impossible to defeat with the size of naval force proposed here.

I believe the PLAN is going to need 35+ modern destroyers (you list 26), 30-40 modern frigates (you list 20), 3 carriers (you list one), 30+ modern diesel electric subs (Song, Yuan, Kilo and here you have this covered), more than ten modern nuclear attack subs (you list five), and 4-6 LPDs (which you do not list), along with their 20 or so larger LST type amphibs, and all of the logistical and auxillary vessels to support them to accomplish the type of mission you outline for them. I also believe the PLAN is building up to dvelop and maintain just such a large and effective, modern naval force. But that is just my opinion.

 

[swimmerXC]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

the navy budget would be limited to "only" $30B ( would it be enough ?, please discuss )

would you think It could achieve those objectives ? ..please discuss

remember that $30B in China is worth a lot more than in US

That 30 billion will be enough if you just want a poorly trained navy with no exprience, you need more money to deploy the fleet in excrises/drills to keep the readiness and exprience high to handle any situation/conflict anywhere and anytime.

 

[antiterror13]

Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

You have a good start, but what you have listed there will not get it done as regards the Japanese Navy (JMSDF) IMHO which currently includes over 50 modern destroyers and frigates, 16-20 modern diesel/electric submarines, over 30 modern minesweepers, three large LPD type amphibious assault vessels, and all of the support, logistical, and auxillary ships to suppor them. They are also very well trained and backed up by a very modern and effective air force. The JMSDF would be a very tough nut to crack in any case, and I believe would be impossible to defeat with the size of naval force proposed here.

I believe the PLAN is going to need 35+ modern destroyers (you list 26), 30-40 modern frigates (you list 20), 3 carriers (you list one), 30+ modern diesel electric subs (Song, Yuan, Kilo and here you have this covered), more than ten modern nuclear attack subs (you list five), and 4-6 LPDs (which you do not list), along with their 20 or so larger LST type amphibs, and all of the logistical and auxillary vessels to support them to accomplish the type of mission you outline for them. I also believe the PLAN is building up to dvelop and maintain just such a large and effective, modern naval force. But that is just my opinion.

Thanks Jeff. But also there is a limitation of the budget, only $30B for PLAN, would you think this budget is enough ?.

I don't believe PLAN needs to have 3 carriers, one carrier is enough. PLAN doesn't need to have a dedicated carrier force, 70-80 % readiness would be sufficient. Most aspects of crew training could be done by simulator and on VARYAG (?). Of course if PLAN have unlimited budget, it would be nice to have 3 carriers, but it would be wasting $$$. PLAN would be better off spend more $$ in training, R&D, Subs, Destroyers and missiles & Radar