Future PLA combat aircraft composition

reservior dogs said:

Yes, I agree that engine availability is the hard constraint for the production of J-20. Also China must invest to produce WS-19 for other projects (future JF-17, H-20, drones etc) as well. It make sense if China wanted to expand fifth gen planes, that they look into a land based J-35. This would also enable them to capture the export market. All in due time. The carrier based J-35 comes first.

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WS-19 variants is unlikely to power H-20s. I do however think WS-19 variants will be an excellent candidate for drones.

H-20 will be powered by non afterburning WS-10s as its intended engines -- I wouldn't be surprised however, if a non AB WS-15 variant may be produced as an upgrade for H-20 down the line.


Overall, my view is that WS-15s are going to be in high demand between the late 2020s and early 2030s, mostly for:
- J-20 production (goes without saying)
- PLA 6th gen initial production (likely a WS-15 variant)

Those two together will already consume a decent number of WS-15s annually, but other additional projects might even add to the demand:
- If a JH-XX/stealthy supersonic theater bomber emerges, I expect it will be powered by WS-15 or a variant of it
- Longer term, if a new H-20 variant or upgrade emerges, a non-AB WS-15 may prove very desirable


All of the above means expanding J-20 production means you either have to expand WS-15 production, or you have to accept that some of your J-20 production will be mixed between being powered by WS-15 and WS-10.


(Also I'm going to move the above posts to a different thread).

weig2000 said:

I guess what I was trying to convey is that I don't see an urgency or need to rush out a land based variant. Both PLAAF and PLAN/SAC have much higher priorities currently and in the next several years. Developing and inducting a new stealth fighter would be a distraction and competition for resource/capacity/budget. In other words, PLAAF should be focusing on achieving a critical mass of J-20s, say, 400-500 of them before inducting a new medium weight stealth fighter. SAC/PLAN should focus on making J-XY/J-35 production ready around 2025.

It's likely that WS-19 won't be ready before 2025, and I don't see why PLAAF should procure another new stealth fighter with a pair of non-target engines. Besides, what exactly a land based variant will bring to PLAAF around 2025 that they will badly need? A low cost alternative to J-20? A multi-purpose stealth fighter versus the air superiority J-20? Or simply augmenting the stealth fighter production capacity of CAC (but taking away budget before J-20 fleet reaches the critical mass)? Finally, producing the land based variant for PLAAF will also take away the limited capacity at J-XY/J-35 at SAC initially.

In short, I think a land based variant will very likely be procured by PLAAF in the future, but it would make more sense to do so towards the end of the decade, when the platform becomes more mature, technology more advanced and the doctrine evolved.

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Yes. No matter whether WS-19 is available or not, PLAN will still want J-35 to be ready in time. But it’s not the case for the land-base PLAAF variant. No point for them to hurry desperately.

Bltizo said:

Overall, my view is that WS-15s are going to be in high demand between the late 2020s and early 2030s, mostly for:
- J-20 production (goes without saying)
- PLA 6th gen initial production (likely a WS-15 variant)

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Completely new generation fighter within a decade of J-20?
Well, it's either going to be 'J-31', or it probably won't happen.

For a simple reason of J-20 being fresh and shiny enough.

p.s. maybe rumored single-seater - for it, at least, there is some sense to appear that early.

Gloire_bb said:

Completely new generation fighter within a decade of J-20?
Well, it's either going to be 'J-31', or it probably won't happen.

For a simple reason of J-20 being fresh and shiny enough.

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My personal expectation is that the PLA 6th gen manned fighter may begin to enter initial production/delivery to training and tactics units in the early 2030s.

I'm not sure how "within a decade of J-20" works out. J-20 entered initial production and initial delivery to training and tactics units in 2015-16.

Bltizo said:

My personal expectation is that the PLA 6th gen manned fighter may begin to enter initial production/delivery to training and tactics units in the early 2030s.

I'm not sure how "within a decade of J-20" works out. J-20 entered initial production and initial delivery to training and tactics units in 2015-16.

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Entry into service - 2017.
Within 10-15 years of that date (2027 is exactly late 2020s) you're simply unlikely to get something radically better than J-20. If it will be better at all, given how much cheaper it will be to upgrade an existing airframe over creating a new one (with whole new evaluations and testing cycle).
Just remember first american 5th gen studies from 1970s - they were barely better than the already existing eagle, and all of them were completely off, but their full development would've been just as expensive(if not more so) as any later development.

IMHO,
Almost 100% unlikely, unless J-20 is really deeply flawed in PLA eyes (why mass-produce it and spawn new versions of it then?)
What will in fact appear - like, it's a no-brainer - are J-20s and J-20 WS-15, both of which will enter service by the middle of decade at the earliest - neither of which is even an MLU.
And by that date you're already planning to get a completely new generation fighter(IOC in early 2030s = first flight at very least around 2025?).

Such a timeline is completely wasteful of J-20.
Thus, I respectfully disagree.

Bltizo said:

WS-19 variants is unlikely to power H-20s. I do however think WS-19 variants will be an excellent candidate for drones.

H-20 will be powered by non afterburning WS-10s as its intended engines -- I wouldn't be surprised however, if a non AB WS-15 variant may be produced as an upgrade for H-20 down the line.


Overall, my view is that WS-15s are going to be in high demand between the late 2020s and early 2030s, mostly for:
- J-20 production (goes without saying)
- PLA 6th gen initial production (likely a WS-15 variant)

Those two together will already consume a decent number of WS-15s annually, but other additional projects might even add to the demand:
- If a JH-XX/stealthy supersonic theater bomber emerges, I expect it will be powered by WS-15 or a variant of it
- Longer term, if a new H-20 variant or upgrade emerges, a non-AB WS-15 may prove very desirable


All of the above means expanding J-20 production means you either have to expand WS-15 production, or you have to accept that some of your J-20 production will be mixed between being powered by WS-15 and WS-10.


(Also I'm going to move the above posts to a different thread).

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Wouldn’t the bypass ratio of WS-15 be too low for H-20? I guess a dedicated engine will be developed for H-20, probably derived from WS-10.

Gloire_bb said:

Entry into service - 2017.
Within 10-15 years of that date (2027 is exactly late 2020s) you're simply unlikely to get something radically better than J-20. If it will be better at all, given how much cheaper it will be to upgrade an existing airframe over creating a new one (with whole new evaluations and testing cycle).
Just remember first american 5th gen studies from 1970s - they were barely better than the already existing eagle, and all of them were completely off, but their full development would've been just as expensive(if not more so) as any later development.

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If we are comparing apples with apples here, I am describing "initial entry into service" in terms of being received to initial training/tactics units.
For J-20 this was 2015-2016.
For a PLA 6th gen, I said early 2030s (let's call it 2032-33).
I didn't say I expected a PLA 6th gen to enter service late 2020s. Late 2020s was in reference to J-20s being produced in large numbers with WS-15s.

Between 2015-2016 to early 2030s, is between 16-18 years.
Hardly "within a decade". More like "over a decade and a half".
16-18 years is longer than the time taken between equivalent initial introduction of J-10A and J-20, btw.

Gloire_bb said:

IMHO,
Almost 100% unlikely, unless J-20 is really deeply flawed in PLA eyes (why mass-produce it and spawn new versions of it then?)
What will in fact appear - like, it's a no-brainer - are J-20s and J-20 WS-15, both of which will enter service by the middle of decade at the earliest - neither of which is even an MLU.
And by that date you're already planning to get a completely new generation fighter(IOC in early 2030s = first flight at very least around 2025?).

Such a timeline is completely wasteful of J-20.

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For initial entry into service of the PLA 6th gen, let's say 2032-33, first flight would be expected around 2027-28.


I'm not sure why you think the schedule of development and procurement is questionable or would reflect on J-20 -- I think what I described is entirely reasonable and consistent with past PLA practice.
After all, when J-20 was first received by PLA training/tactics units (2015-2016), they were still actively producing J-10Cs and J-16s. Heck, even today they are still actively producing J-16s (and possibly J-10Cs as well) for the PLA while J-20 production continues apace.


I expect there to be a similar case for the PLA 6th gen, where they continue production of advanced J-20 variants, and whatever land based medium weight 5th gen fighter that they decide on (with my belief being a land based J-XY/35 variant) only ceasing into the mid to late 2030s, while the PLA 6th gen starts to spool up production from the early to the mid 2030s.

blindsight said:

Wouldn’t the bypass ratio of WS-15 be too low for H-20? I guess a dedicated engine will be developed for H-20, probably derived from WS-10.

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H-20 is expected to use a non after burning variant of WS-10.
A non after burning variant of WS-15 will be perfectly appropriate for a subsonic stealth bomber (the issue arises more from the space/ease of integration), just like how B-21 will be powered by a non after burning variant of F135.

Bltizo said:

H-20 is expected to use a non after burning variant of WS-10.
A non after burning variant of WS-15 will be perfectly appropriate for a subsonic stealth bomber (the issue arises more from the space/ease of integration), just like how B-21 will be powered by a non after burning variant of F135.

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Would they have to change the by-pass ratio of the WS-15? I thought that lower by-pass ratio engines have lower fuel efficiency at subsonic flight regions.

reservior dogs said:

Would they have to change the by-pass ratio of the WS-15? I thought that lower by-pass ratio engines have lower fuel efficiency at subsonic flight regions.

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For a stealth bomber, you cannot practically install a high bypass engine because... Well, it's a stealth bomber, and you need to keep the aircraft relatively flat with a low profile and have the engine seated deep in the aircraft, for signature reduction methods.

Yes, it is less efficient than if you had a higher bypass engine, but the trade-off is you receive a viable stealthy airframe.

Putting it another way, H-20 is rumoured and expected to use a non afterburning variant of WS-10. That makes sense, and there is a reason why no one expects H-20 to use WS-20 (which is a high bypass variant of WS-10)


See the relationship between F118 and F110.