Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

LawLeadsToPeace said:

All of this stuff I have been saying could potentially happen before China can afford to become an international pariah. My question to you is that: if what I said happen in the next few months or even year, what should China do? Based on your logic and that of several other users, China wouldn’t have the strength to afford a full kinetic conflict in that given timeframe so should China just allow it to happen? Should China show to the world that it won’t react whenever someone undercuts its legitimacy and sovereignty?

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My suggestions, pick 2-3 exercises from the following list:

1. Nuclear test
2. SLBM launch and interception
3. GEO ASAT with a maneuverable satellite
4. Laser blinding of hostile regime satellites
5. Shooting a target drone over Taiwanese airspace.

Of course this is unlikely happen because the PLA has demonstrated lack of resolve. It may not even have the resolve to carry out simple exercises.

Yommie said:

China is mickey mouse even with 10 carrier strike groups. China lacks Russia's bravery which fights back against Anglo Saxon bullying.

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You've made the same post like 6 times now just worded differently. Can you stop?

Yommie said:

In retaliation China sell military hardware to Russia and make life difficult for Anglo Saxon war in Ukraine.

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Beidou sat guidance should be 3x better than GPS at 10cm vs 30cm accuracy.

China could test its mainline MLRS PHL-16 with the 360km rockets, which is assumed to be one of the main weapons in a Taiwan defense scenario. It's massive amount of ISR drones can also be tested in the Donbass, since its been said that Russia lacks AEW.

Plenty of high value targets from NATO to snipe.

For now, the "exercises" probably only lead to loss of a few islands and normalisation of PLA acitivty next to the coast. But, practice is needed for the push against the main Taiwan island. To do that, sending specialists to Donbass would be a good idea.

China could even consider sending Wang Yi to Luhansk or Donetsk if they're willing to recieve him.

FairAndUnbiased said:

My suggestions, pick 2-3 exercises from the following list:

1. Nuclear test
2. SLBM launch and interception
3. GEO ASAT with a maneuverable satellite
4. Laser blinding of hostile regime satellites
5. Shooting a target drone over Taiwanese airspace

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None of them do anything. Taiwan at that hypothetical point is a sovereign nation, and China’s sovereignty has basically been violated. Plus based on what certain users said, during that hypothetical time period, China hasn’t attained the amount of nuclear warheads and level of conventional force to take on the whole Western world and it’s allies all at once.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Who and where said this?

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Chinese people are very, very disappointed! The Party Central Committee can naturally see that now the atmosphere of China's being humiliated again has spread across the country, and the people's will has been mobilized. Without the Pelosi incident, the people's will to liberate Taiwan would not be so unified. Crisis is both danger and opportunity. Opportunities will not be missed. We will see the result in the next few days!

FairAndUnbiased said:

My suggestions, pick 2-3 exercises from the following list:

1. Nuclear test
2. SLBM launch and interception
3. GEO ASAT with a maneuverable satellite
4. Laser blinding of hostile regime satellites
5. Shooting a target drone over Taiwanese airspace.

Of course this is unlikely happen because the PLA has demonstrated lack of resolve. It may not even have the resolve to carry out simple exercises.

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They could launch missiles over the island from one side to other. That will definitely put everyone on edge.

I think from a Chinese perspective, if they had let Pelosi go to Taiwan, it would be dumb to deny all the west's friends to go also, since that would just show that they are scared of the US, but are happy to show force against smaller foes.

The economic response thus should not be limited to Taiwan, China should also target key export industries in the US as a show of force.

If they Sanction US Agricultural exports in response for example, it would act as a more effective deterrent against the likes of UK/Australia from pulling the same shit unless they want to cripple their own economy for cheap PR.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

None of them do anything. Taiwan at that hypothetical point is a sovereign nation, and China’s sovereignty has basically been violated.

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It demonstrates capability which is now being called into question. Resolve is already gone. At least intercepting a SLBM or something shows capability. Flying a target drone into Taiwan then shooting it down also shows that they are not a sovereign nation.

BoraTas said:

There are reports on Taiwan using 40 fighters to escort her. As I said before armed flyover or NEZ will not be possible without dropping the hammer on the Taiwanese military. BTW the PLA just announced it is invading Taiwan tonight. The announced exercises are as close as Taiwan's internal waters

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554498648255655938

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This is the right, in-your-face response that China needs to do, not the shooting or intercepting the aircraft of an 82-year-old lady. China needs to make sure all parties understand that this is NOT just a military exercise, but can turn into a military operation, all the way to full-invasion of Taiwan.

Look at the responses above. See the impact? Which of China's reaction is more effective and intimating: large-scale, surround-the-island, joint naval and air force military operations or stunts of intercepting an old woman's air plane despite of her standing as US House of Speaker. To use a Chinese military phrase (attributable to Mao I think): 你打你的，我打我的。Translated: You fight your way, I fight the way I choose. The status and nature of US-China rivalry are such that, provocations such as Pelosi's visit is bound to happen. The key is you don't respond the way your enemy expects you to.

Remember: get tough, don't get mad.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

All of this stuff I have been saying could potentially happen before China can afford to become an international pariah. My question to you is that: if what I said happen in the next few months or even year, what should China do? Based on your logic and that of several other users, China wouldn’t have the strength to afford a full kinetic conflict in that given timeframe so should China just allow it to happen? Should China show to the world that it won’t react whenever someone undercuts its legitimacy and sovereignty?

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Can't UN observer status be vetoed? Also, there are more voting states that support China than oppose because the countries in the EU actually represent a small number of the ~200 countries in the world.

China doesn't have a point where it cannot afford to become an international pariah because 1. the West would economically wreck itself trying to sanction China and 2. no price is too high to retake Taiwan. Just because we're willing to wait and hunt for a better deal on when and how to do it does not mean that we won't do it at any cost. Tomorrow, if war over the ROC is here, we fight it, either to victory or to global nuclear annihilation. It would be less costly and messy to do this 10 or 20 years later, but when push comes to shove, we are ready any time.