Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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tphuang

tphuang

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Breaking Points normally looks at things from other side also and they did not disappoint me here.

Let's put a few things here. China was never going to shoot down Pelosi's plane. China was never going to actually escort Pelosi's plane out of Taiwan air space and result in a shooting war.

There are a whole list of reasons that even if China wanted to take things up a notch, today wasn't going to be the day. I fully expect the likelihood of war to go up from this. I fully expect that China will accelerate plans to be ready for an invasion. But that day has not come yet. Maybe it will come in 2024 if a presidential candidate wants to visit Taiwan or if a new Republican speaker wants to go. Maybe it will come in 2025 when a new president in power want to normalize relationship with Taiwan. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a disaster for world peace, but it definitely does not cross the type of red line that would precipitate war.

There are quite a few projects that China needs to complete before it is fully ready to get in a war. Until then, they should shut up unless they are willing to actually spend more 1.4% on defense.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

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ZeEa5KPul said:
For the record, not all of us want to smack the head coach. We'd just like it if he put some more resources into the training regimen.
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All resources are put into the training regimen. Today, you tried to score but failed, so you lament that he didn't dedicated more resources to offensive training. But guess what, you successfully defended yesterday and the whole time, you remained fresh when the opposing team ran out of steam. That's because he allocated those resources to defense and conditioning. But you don't think about that because with China's momentum of success, you take success as granted. Resource reallocation has its consequences and the current allocation is producing a trend that is leading to victory. Have faith in your coach and follow his plays.
LawLeadsToPeace said:
The problem is that once Taiwan becomes an observer state, any attack on Taiwan is considered an attack on a UN member. Also Taiwan then can submit a petition to become a member, which essentially elevates Taiwan to the status of a sovereign nation. This literally delegitimizes China’s anti-secession law since Taiwan basically is independent at that point without having to declare independence. It’s easy to say, “F**k em”, and launch rockets at them. But China would then have to deal with the international backlash, which is something the Chinese are sensitive to and just can’t accept.
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Laws don't matter. The same thing remains: if the West is strong enough, it will fight and oppose China over Taiwan. If China is strong enough, they will back down and run their mouths. The real life balance of power decides it; laws are made by man to be broken by man.
 
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supersnoop

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Helius said:
Hong Kong 2019 was also an embarrassment. China had issued plenty of serious threats back then, too.

Remember when the PLA/Armed Police were amassing in Shenzhen that borders HK during the riots? What came out of that little manoeuvre? Did the mainland declare martial law on the city like everybody was clamouring for?

Look at how HK got cleaned up since then, and the city now firmly in China's grasp, all of that without a single mainland boot stepping even an inch into HK like Trump and Pompeo dared China to do. Was China a paper tiger then?

If there's one thing the Chinese government has demonstrated time and again, particularly the current government, no need to even look at past ones, is that their modus to crisis management has consistently been measured, calculated and rational, and not placate to the whims of emotionally-charged voices within and without.

Acting out of embarrassment only serves to embarrass oneself even more. Some peeps on here really need to chillax, check their urge for instant gratification and observe what China does in the coming weeks and months. China WILL do something, that much is an absolute certainty, and whatever transpires from it will just as certainly lead to permanent change in state of affairs that would further strengthen China's interests and that of the Chinese people.
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HK 2019 was a masterstroke.
Heck, HK 1982, Thatcher tripping, equally masterful

It literally took 100+ years, but sometimes you have to be patient, lol
 
BoraTas

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Bellum_Romanum said:
Who the f is that effing weirdo telling China where and when it can go within it's own territory?
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The guy is a moron. That's not the point though. The point is China is violating Taiwan's territory today. Which is a huge escalation. ADIZ and median line are gone. Even the Taiwanese territorial waters are no more. I think China will keep pushing naval and aerial assets in until Taiwan gives a casus belli to China or gets humiliated. I can see cruise missile flights over Taiwan. BTW during the last day of the exercise, the strait becomes calm. It will be good weather to invade the Taiwanese small islands if Taiwan falls for the provocation.
 
Yommie

Yommie

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I think if China is to attack Taiwan, China will attack Taiwan at the same time when Russia attacks Ukraine. This way America can't fight 2 fronts at the same time and therefore gives up.
 
B

Biscuits

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sndef888 said:
Propagandist from our favourite CIA outlet ASPI
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I need the barf react emote.

supercat said:
People on these islands are more pro-China than those on the island of Taiwan. Instead of wasting blood and treasury on military operations, China should build brights to these islands, which is actually supported by many people who live on these islands.

Pelosi should be awarded 2 medals.

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If they are more pro-government then it will make integrating them faster, easier and more bloodless.

Youre delusional if you think taking either of these would cost any significant in either in blood or treasury.

They're, as you say, relatively pro government areas with minimal rebel garrisons that are facing what is probably enough force to destroy all of the ROC forces if the troops being currently surged at Fujian are any indication.
dengyeye said:
God fucking damn it, why do literally all hanjians look like that...
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For they are hanjian for a reason. Have you seen Vlasov? It's even worse.
 
L

Lokos

New Member
Registered Member
tphuang said:
Breaking Points normally looks at things from other side also and they did not disappoint me here.

Let's put a few things here. China was never going to shoot down Pelosi's plane. China was never going to actually escort Pelosi's plane out of Taiwan air space and result in a shooting war.

There are a whole list of reasons that even if China wanted to take things up a notch, today wasn't going to be the day. I fully expect the likelihood of war to go up from this. I fully expect that China will accelerate plans to be ready for an invasion. But that day has not come yet. Maybe it will come in 2024 if a presidential candidate wants to visit Taiwan or if a new Republican speaker wants to go. Maybe it will come in 2025 when a new president in power want to normalize relationship with Taiwan. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a disaster for world peace, but it definitely does not cross the type of red line that would precipitate war.

There are quite a few projects that China needs to complete before it is fully ready to get in a war. Until then, they should shut up unless they are willing to actually spend more 1.4% on defense.
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Absolutely agree. China's foreign ministry needs to shut up unless they have the means to back up the tough talk. They fall into this trap constantly.
 
M

Minm

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Biscuits said:
Doing completely normal routine exercises within 12 nm of Chinese Taipei would be the most toothless response possible now that would probably create a public backlash that severely hurt Xi's chances at reelection or at least force him to accept compromises to take more hawks into his lineup.

Still, its better than just sending token force to intercept Pelosi without shooting her down.

However, I think in the past, Beijing generally didn't commit exercises within 12 nm of Taiwan island. So even that might be a new first.
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It's a response proportional to the provocation. Acting disproportionately aggressively only works if you have absolute military superiority. China didn't land troops on the diaoyu islands after the Japanese government "bought" them and it's clear today that China won that crisis.
 
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