Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[supercat]

Kinmen and Matsu are a good trade off for Pelosi's visit. Taking over the whole of Taiwan is just crazy at this point, special military operation or whatever

People on these islands are more pro-China than those on the island of Taiwan. Instead of wasting blood and treasury on military operations, China should build brights to these islands, which is actually supported by many people who live on these islands.

Pelosi should be awarded 2 medals.

• One from the CP of China in gratitude for her endless efforts to rally the people of China around their government and
• One from Russia, for her endless efforts into solidifying the Russian-Chinese alliance.

Truth be told, between Biden and Pelosi the national security interests of China and Russia are in good hands

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[clockwork]

The issue is that there is a very high possibility that other countries will send official delegations to Taiwan which would legitimize Taiwan’s international status. Yes, China’s objective is to prevent the secession of Taiwan, but in order to do so, Taiwan needs to be illegitimate on the international stage. That’s why China spent so much time to persuade other countries to cut ties with Taiwan and block Taiwan’s entry into international organizations.

So with that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more and more countries sending official delegations to Taiwan. I believe that the US will eventually push for a UN observer status. That is basically de facto secession and literally one step away from true secession.

As I said before, China can shoot down any others without any drama or hesitation. What is the UK gonna do?

China can leave the killing of Americans till it's strong enough to kill them all, but any others who come can get popped before they even see land.

 

[Sheleah]

However, I think in the past, Beijing generally didn't commit exercises within 12 nm of Taiwan island. So even that might be a new first.

The response of Taiwan and the US may end up escalating tensions, after all, I do not think that Taiwan will allow China to carry out exercises with live ammunition in its territorial waters, let alone with the support of the US Navy nearby.

 

[sndef888]

Normalisation of PLA assets within 12nm of taiwan would be a pretty decent tradeoff for this debacle

It all depends on how taiwan and US responds in the next week

 

[Biscuits]

The response of Taiwan and the US may end up escalating tensions, after all, I do not think that Taiwan will allow China to carry out exercises with live ammunition in its territorial waters, let alone with the support of the US Navy nearby.

They don't even "not allow" lone planes and drones from just flying over and around them, even if they could lock on to them. There is no military strength to contest it.

Taiwan doesn't have territorial waters anyways, only countries have it. They may have some wishy washy zone of control depending on region where they can launch anti ship missiles, but China at this point dares them to do it.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

There are reports on Taiwan using 40 fighters to escort her. As I said before armed flyover or NEZ will not be possible without dropping the hammer on the Taiwanese military. BTW the PLA just announced it is invading Taiwan tonight. The announced exercises are as close as Taiwan's internal waters

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554498648255655938

Who the f is that effing weirdo telling China where and when it can go within it's own territory?

 

[sndef888]

Who the f is that effing weirdo telling China where and when it can go within it's own territory?

Propagandist from our favourite CIA outlet ASPI

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

It is not today CN has weakened its own deterrence against country sending official delegations to Taiwan but in the past with their empty useless warning. But pelosi visit will accelerate this trend

Stop trolling for just a moment if you're at all capable of doing so and answer a simple question: What do official delegations to Taiwan accomplish?

 

[daifo]

This was pretty embarrassing at one point too...



Nancy+et al can virtual signal all they want, but someone will bear the consequence which i think the real meaning of the Chinese warnings may have been.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

This is all performative art. There is no "legitimizing" Taiwan on the international stage because the moment Taiwan declares independence is the moment the PLARF rockets rain down. What's keeping the situation locked in this perdition is China's strength and what will take it out of perdition is China's increased strength.

This has nothing to do with emotion or "legitimacy" or any such thing. This is a simple calculation: Is China strong enough to forcibly expel the US from the Pacific. If yes, start war. If no, grow stronger.

The problem is that once Taiwan becomes an observer state, any attack on Taiwan is considered an attack on a UN member. Also Taiwan then can submit a petition to become a member, which essentially elevates Taiwan to the status of a sovereign nation. This literally delegitimizes China’s anti-secession law since Taiwan basically is independent at that point without having to declare independence. It’s easy to say, “F**k em”, and launch rockets at them. But China would then have to deal with the international backlash, which is something the Chinese are sensitive to and just can’t accept.