However, I completely disagree that China should reveal its true nuclear might until the invasion of Taiwan commence or at worst 3 month ahead. This way, it will send shock and awe to the US while giving US no time to properly react!
This actually might be a good idea. If they reveal it immediately after completion (not immediately prior to AR), Taiwan might become a "nuclear flashpoint"- people will automatically assume it means a nuclear exchange, like West Berlin, and then if war comes be inclined to go nuclear.
But if they suddenly reveal it just prior to AR, it would cause a shock similar to Putin's "you will face consequences never before seen in your history" warning, and deter them from intervening.
BTW Xi doing a similar message to Putin wouldn't work because such a strategy would run counter to the no first use policy. So a surprise announcement, making it official, could serve a similar purpose without violating state policy.
So all China has to really do to get Japan on side is to wait out the old timers and get stronger without needlessly escalating tensions (doesn't mean not escalate tensions, but do so only when advantageous).
I'd say given Japanese population boom in the 50s-70s, and how many of the most influential people in Japan were born in the 50s-70s, it could be that Japan's popular opinion shift in the 2030s (people born in the 50s getting too old, people born in the 60s and 70s retiring) would coincide with a big power shift on the ground. Meanwhile those born in the 80s and 90s would be getting into politically active age. By that point Japan is likely to change the status quo to one more favoring China.
Another thing is two big earthquakes we are expecting sometime this century- one south of Shikoku which will likely reach Osaka and the rest of the Kansai region, and one in Tokyo similar to the 1923 earthquake. Both of these will be similar in size to the 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
This would provide a huge opportunity to flex Chinese soft power in helping to rebuild and partake in rescue efforts.
Japan won't be able to rebuild on its own due to the economic problems caused by population decline, and America just won't be able to do what China could do because... it just can't
and it is declining. Right wing politicians would scream "China threat!!!!111!!!11!!1" but no one would care- people just want their homes back and the economy up and running.
People tolerate the far right now because they have been around for so long without causing problems and most live in relative peace and prosperity, but to see these same people telling the masses to tolerate living in prefab homes and having their children eat two meals a day to "defend the country from China" will cause serious opposition and marginalize the right wing.
Especially once the current youth becomes the ruling generation one day, people aren't going to have it.
The concentration of so much of the economy in Tokyo will cause the Kanto earthquake to be especially devastating. The image of Chinese companies helping to rebuild people's homes and revive the economy will do a lot to sway people towards China, and in turn away from the US.
This is an optimistic outcome but China should definitely be active as well as exploiting the passive means to the fullest extent.
