Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

tphuang said:

hmm, I wouldn't want to send DF-27s. Once you have missiles going that far, countries are going to have a hard time discerning between conventional and strategic tipped missiles. Don't even think about hitting west coast with ballistic missiles.

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Isn't it the same for the US? Strictly speaking, the F35 is a nuclear capable bomber (same for F18). So if it's not a nuclear escalation for the US to use them against China, why would Chinese ballistic missiles be a problem? Of course the American logic is that it's ok for them to hit others but it's terrorism for others to hit them. Things become dangerous when the American government actually starts to believe that.

So what can the PLA rocket force do to avoid nuclear escalation? Maybe a salami tactic is best. If the US intervenes in Taiwan but doesn't bomb the mainland, then China won't need to strike the continental US but can attack Guam and other minor islands. The US government might overreact and start a first strike if they see a few dozen missiles headed for California. They won't risk nuclear war if the target is obviously military and has a very small population. If American planes bomb the mainland, then China can slowly send missiles closer and closer to the continental US. It might be ok to announce a target area in the ocean first and then demonstrate to the world that you can hit that point accurately and that the missile wasn't nuclear tipped. Then just move the target area closer to the coast. Boil the frog slowly.

9dashline said:

On 9/11 Bush was reading a children's book upside down to group of kindergarden kids half way across the nation while Cheney was quarterbacking from inside the Pentagon...

Bush later admitted he was talked into Iraq war because Saddam had wanted to kill his daddy (senior Bush) and it was a way to finish what his dad started that lost his father the reelection... Cheney, before becoming little Shrubs VP, was SecDefense under the senior Bush not to mention had been CEO of oil giant Halliburton...

Saddam stood up against the petrodollar and suddenly Collin Powell cooked up a powerpoint slide and some fake test tubes and the WMD lie and the rest was history...

Kim learned not to give up his nukes...

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This mongrel is the world's biggest liar and sht-stirrer. They are taught to lie at the CIA school, quoted by a senior US politican [whose name I forgot].
They made up stories and started the Iraqi war, and wars in other regions, especially in TW, why? I believe our learned, unbiased, forum members know.

Taiwan bill looms, and it could pose ‘direct challenge’ for US-China ties

- Tensions are high, and the White House has tried to delay the Taiwan Policy Act that aims to upgrade ties with the island by designating it as a major non-Nato ally
- Observers say the bill ‘would overturn Sino-US relations’ and could prompt a stronger response from Beijing than House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taipei

Source:

Non- paywall:

Appix said:

Taiwan bill looms, and it could pose ‘direct challenge’ for US-China ties

- Tensions are high, and the White House has tried to delay the Taiwan Policy Act that aims to upgrade ties with the island by designating it as a major non-Nato ally
- Observers say the bill ‘would overturn Sino-US relations’ and could prompt a stronger response from Beijing than House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taipei

Source:

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Non- paywall:

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The proper response is to cut off all relations with America... overnight... yes it will hurt China too but it will be the end of the US as an empire and as a nation if China severed all ties SWIFTly and without any grace period. There is no way the US will be able to adjust in time without first collapsing into civil war or breaking up into a dozen parts....

9dashline said:

The proper response is to cut off all relations with America... overnight... yes it will hurt China too but it will be the end of the US as an empire and as a nation if China severed all ties SWIFTly and without any grace period. There is no way the US will be able to adjust in time without first collapsing into civil war or breaking up into a dozen parts....

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Bro, that would be the best for world peace if this happened!

Minm said:

Isn't it the same for the US? Strictly speaking, the F35 is a nuclear capable bomber (same for F18). So if it's not a nuclear escalation for the US to use them against China, why would Chinese ballistic missiles be a problem? Of course the American logic is that it's ok for them to hit others but it's terrorism for others to hit them. Things become dangerous when the American government actually starts to believe that.

So what can the PLA rocket force do to avoid nuclear escalation? Maybe a salami tactic is best. If the US intervenes in Taiwan but doesn't bomb the mainland, then China won't need to strike the continental US but can attack Guam and other minor islands. The US government might overreact and start a first strike if they see a few dozen missiles headed for California. They won't risk nuclear war if the target is obviously military and has a very small population. If American planes bomb the mainland, then China can slowly send missiles closer and closer to the continental US. It might be ok to announce a target area in the ocean first and then demonstrate to the world that you can hit that point accurately and that the missile wasn't nuclear tipped. Then just move the target area closer to the coast. Boil the frog slowly.

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Once you launch a ballistic missile that goes 8000 km, the other country is automatically going to think it's nuclear tipped. Keep in mind that DF-26 can have nuclear warhead, but nobody is saying DF-26 can't get used. If China is concerned about not being able to strike continental USA, then it should wait until H20 and 095s are ready for action.

tphuang said:

Once you launch a ballistic missile that goes 8000 km, the other country is automatically going to think it's nuclear tipped. Keep in mind that DF-26 can have nuclear warhead, but nobody is saying DF-26 can't get used. If China is concerned about not being able to strike continental USA, then it should wait until H20 and 095s are ready for action.

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These "rules" like no ballistic missiles are completely arbitrary developments of the Cold War. What America is going to understand - more accurately, what China is going to make America understand - is that these rules no longer hold. Today's "rules" are a bit like

tphuang said:

Once you launch a ballistic missile that goes 8000 km, the other country is automatically going to think it's nuclear tipped. Keep in mind that DF-26 can have nuclear warhead, but nobody is saying DF-26 can't get used. If China is concerned about not being able to strike continental USA, then it should wait until H20 and 095s are ready for action.

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If you launch a single missile, nobody would think it's nuclear tipped. A first strike with a single missile isn't much of a first strike. I don't see how strategic bombers/submarines that are part of the nuclear triad are any less threatening. If 10 B2 bombers are in the air at the same time and approaching China, isn't China also automatically going to assume that they're carrying out a first strike? If in the future many H20 bombers are available and the US detects them on their way to America, aren't they going to assume it's part of a first strike? In any conflict between two nuclear powers, both sides have to hold back. For China, that means it's too dangerous to launch hundreds of long range missiles at the same time. For the US, that means no large scale bombing campaigns using nuclear capable planes including B2 and F35.


The key is communication and educating Americans that any airstrike will result in retaliation. Announce in advance that any incursions by American planes will be seen as a potential nuclear attack and that in case of an F35 violating Chinese airspace, China will act under the assumption that it's carrying a nuclear weapon. ICBMs are also not as much of a problem as you suggest, because their path is very predictable. If the US detects one or two missiles they should easily determine that they're headed for example for Guam, so they wouldn't assume that that's a first strike to take out the US. Of course sending 20 or more missiles at the same time to targets all over the west and east coast of the US would be foolish.

Decoupling, at this stage, will inflict more harm on China than the USA.

The USA is a net energy exporter. China is a net energy importer. Can China secure its energy imports against a hostile USA? Even with Taiwan reunified and South Korea on the sidelines, can it prevent the USA and its bases from disrupting its shipping?

If it goes overland, how long until those pipelines are completed? Can China secure its trade partners, like Iran and Pakistan, against US aggression?

Compared to energy, everything else is window dressing, but the same problems apply. Can China secure its trade routes for imports of inputs? Can it secure its exports? Can it do so while remaining competitive against other nations?

This isn’t even beginning to get into the financial side of things. The Yuan isn’t free-floating. It’s not currently in a position to become a reserve currency. So without the dollar, what will the trade be conducted in? Are those financial systems in place?

Will America hurt too? Of course. But there are perks that come with hegemony over most of the world. With China out of the picture, manufacturing can be kicked over to other developing countries. Energy and food independence remains. There may be transitional issues with access to pharmaceuticals, but if there’s one thing we’ve learned recently, the USA isn’t shy about feeding a million of its people to Nurgle. And, most importantly, it has hard and soft power projection to all corners of the globe.

These aren’t necessarily insurmountable problems, but they’re problems that need to be addressed *before* any overnight decoupling. The mutual pain may even be enough for the USA to decide to preserve the status quo—but that’s a gamble.

Minm said:

If you launch a single missile, nobody would think it's nuclear tipped. A first strike with a single missile isn't much of a first strike. I don't see how strategic bombers/submarines that are part of the nuclear triad are any less threatening. If 10 B2 bombers are in the air at the same time and approaching China, isn't China also automatically going to assume that they're carrying out a first strike? If in the future many H20 bombers are available and the US detects them on their way to America, aren't they going to assume it's part of a first strike? In any conflict between two nuclear powers, both sides have to hold back. For China, that means it's too dangerous to launch hundreds of long range missiles at the same time. For the US, that means no large scale bombing campaigns using nuclear capable planes including B2 and F35.


The key is communication and educating Americans that any airstrike will result in retaliation. Announce in advance that any incursions by American planes will be seen as a potential nuclear attack and that in case of an F35 violating Chinese airspace, China will act under the assumption that it's carrying a nuclear weapon. ICBMs are also not as much of a problem as you suggest, because their path is very predictable. If the US detects one or two missiles they should easily determine that they're headed for example for Guam, so they wouldn't assume that that's a first strike to take out the US. Of course sending 20 or more missiles at the same time to targets all over the west and east coast of the US would be foolish.

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As i said, a ballistic missile that goes half way around the globe are going to be treated as nuclear tipped. It's a bad idea to use them that way. If you don't believe, that's fine. But pla would steer well clear of using ballistic missiles from mainland against continental USA. That's just the reality.