I really don't see this happening. China probably wants to develop this out as the new normal and let the waning of the news cycle and public interest to naturally de-escalate tensions. I'm not sure I see China deescalating unless they're offered concessions, and American political discourse means that concessions basically can't be offered at this time without torpedoing the political clout of the official that offers it. I guess the American generals can try to offer something?
Why wouldn't China want to de-escalate?
China has come out with a significant PR win and a change in the status quo in China's favour.
If China continues, they'll be seen as the aggressor.
There will inevitably be more actions that go against the One China principle which 160 countries in the world have recently affirmed.
China just has to wait for another politician in the West who is too stupid to recognise the consequences of supporting an independent Taiwan.
Then China can run the same playbook again
Yeah, I still don't understand why anyone thinks that is a good idea. If they wanted to defend the democracy and political autonomy of Taiwan, the status quo is the thing that should be maintained. I think for many uninformed but highly political Americans, it's hard to get the concept into their head that sometimes the best thing to do is to not do anything.
The proposal comes from the US Senate, and would include the US formally recognising Taiwan as a military ally, provide weapons to Taiwan and support Taiwan in international organisations.
It'll still be painful regardless. It's just that as time goes on, China as well as sympathetic nations will develop out their industries more and western powers will increasingly have to turn their attentions towards domestic issues. It just seems like the best option, regardless of whether you're China or if you're the pro-Taiwanese democracy faction of America, to just try to kick this bucket down the road. If war starts, democracy is going to die in Taiwan regardless.
Well, in the long run, you would expect China to build a significantly larger military than the USA. Large enough to defeat US Navy in a blue-water battle in the Western Pacific. At that point, it doesn't make any sense for the US to get involved in a war against China