Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
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America (thought they) won round 1, China won round 2, now it's time to see what happens in round 3
Whether these american puppets continue to visit taiwan depends on what the PLA will do. I'm hoping for another photoshoot, this time of another landmark
Whether these american puppets continue to visit taiwan depends on what the PLA will do. I'm hoping for another photoshoot, this time of another landmark
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Taiwan occupies the attention of the PRC ministry anyway. Dragging this out means they get more practice and experience of real world combined military operations. It also sharpens their focus as they know it could be for real next time.
In the future, no one in the Chinese military or in the general population would be surprised if an actual war occurs.
From a diplomatic and economic perspective, yes, a long period of tensions isn't good for both China or Taiwan. So I do expect China to take this win and de-escalate the situation. After all, even Biden and Pelosi are publicly repeating there is only One China.
Plus there will be other crisis in the future anyway, like the US potentially designating Taiwan a formal US military ally next month. And I would call this a red line action even more serious than Pelosi's visit
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Economically, this episode pushes Chinese companies to further remove any reliance on foreign technology or foreign supply chains. That applies especially to the emerging technologies of the ongoing Third Industrial Revolution where China has an commanding lead overall.
That should more than compensate for any decoupling effect between China and the West.
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It also allows China more time to catch up in places where they're lagging by a lot, like in nuclear submarine technology, it allows more time to develop out and reach true parity with America in things like the sophistication and fleet size of 5th generation fighters, and to solidify their lead in rocketry and missile technology. Assuming China wants to make this less painful and prolonged, I can only see benefits to waiting.
I really don't see this happening. China probably wants to develop this out as the new normal and let the waning of the news cycle and public interest to naturally de-escalate tensions. I'm not sure I see China deescalating unless they're offered concessions, and American political discourse means that concessions basically can't be offered at this time without torpedoing the political clout of the official that offers it. I guess the American generals can try to offer something?
Yeah, I still don't understand why anyone thinks that is a good idea. If they wanted to defend the democracy and political autonomy of Taiwan, the status quo is the thing that should be maintained. I think for many uninformed but highly political Americans, it's hard to get the concept into their head that sometimes the best thing to do is to not do anything.
It'll still be painful regardless. It's just that as time goes on, China as well as sympathetic nations will develop out their industries more and western powers will increasingly have to turn their attentions towards domestic issues. It just seems like the best option, regardless of whether you're China or if you're the pro-Taiwanese democracy faction of America, to just try to kick this bucket down the road. If war starts, democracy is going to die in Taiwan regardless.
Americans are still under the delusion that China is weak and that they can do anything they want.
American politics follows the stupidity of their general public. They don't care about whether it hurts Taiwan, all they want is to "give China the middle finger" due to the past few years of propaganda
The obvious answer is that what Americans want isn't what you wrote
China will ignore this.
All this Lithuanian trip is, it is damage control by the US side.
This Pelosi trip is domestically viewed as a blunder in many quarters inside the US.
The Biden people will say it is not a blunder because other people supported their position and Pelosi's travels with her broomstick was the right thing to do.
I mean, I'd say it depends. I think that our friend Patchwork really is genuine in his desires, but that's not to ignore the fact that there's a considerable amount of Americans that just want to use this opportunity to hurt China and to 'get them back in line' as it were, like they want to try to replicate what they did to Japan with a nuclear-armed state. I have literally seen redditoids say that 90% of the Chinese economy is from exporting to the US (not that 90% of the Chinese economy is exports which would still be wrong, but that 90% of exports go to the US specifically). I think people here put far too much stock in material conditions and much less on the American perception of the Chinese people and government.
Another important point, is that once someone starts talking about the Domino Theory, stop reading that.
From what I have seen, the Domino Theory never worked.
That other expression is the norm, the case by case idea.
China will deal with other countries on a case by case basis.
China will not deal with countries thinking about some Domino Theory that never happens.
Pelosi was sanctioned herself, and US China relations are near frozen.
Is that the template for other countries to deal with China?
According to those Domino Theory believers, yes it is.
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The United States was trying to play this Cowboys and Indians like they always do, and this Domino Theory at the same time.
Instead, they maneuvered themselves into a corner, with limited options for their next moves.
(The situation right now between the US and China is that the US cannot escalate further without causing a major war, and the US cannot improve their relations with China, essentially US-China relations are frozen at the moment. In short, they cannot go forward nor backwards).
It is what President Trump said, "All those stupid wars." For the American Democrats to tinker with the Taiwan question is working for another stupid war.
That is why it won't happen.
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He can be genuine or not but it doesn't matter because he isn't a policy or decision maker
What I pay attention, is the actions and not the talk.
The US is talking a good game about plenty of things. But when the time comes to take an action, that's when America shows its true face.
So, when I see Biden and other propagandists say "we didn't support the visit!", I see the actions of Biden, the commander in chief, giving permission to Pelosi to use military assets to travel to Taiwan and I conclude that Biden defacto supported the visit.
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