The heart of the issue is US. It's obvious the cost of maintaining a status quo is increasing exponentially as US tries to get the most geopolitical leverage out of it. Things would get only worse, there's no turning back to the game before. Increasing risk of accidentally starting a war for stopping an office holder is kinda lame as you can just go and do the real thing and chop the head off on your own terms and timing. Armed unification is the only way to do it comparatively cheaply and effectively, and it must be done before Xi retires.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Where do you think Taiwan is heading towards by first inviting/accepting visit by Pelosi, and then follow with other heads of state ? May be Tsai just loves parties with foreign dignitaries.
Where do you want to draw the red line ? Obviously, China essentially declared the Pelosi visit is beyond China's red line.
Agree with you that China leaving Kinmen and Matsu alone for obvious reasons. While reclaiming them is relatively easy, they do not add much to China's strategic and military position other than antagonizing Taiwan. So taking them for no particular reason is not advisable.
But Penghu is another story. It has significant strategic value, as mentioned by quite a few SDF members. But it is far more militarily challenging to take control of, and China probably was not capable of capturing and holding it until recently.
Given the current geopolitical situation, taking Penghu and then Matsu and Kinmen (in that order) makes sense and will significantly enhance China's capability to control the Taiwan Strait and eventual force reunification.
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I propose to capture Taiping Island. This is the only island in the Nansha Islands with fresh water. It is occupied by Taiwan. If the Taiwanese insist that they are the Republic of China, we can tolerate it. The current situation is that the Taiwanese want to overthrow the government of the Republic of China and declare independence. , then Taiwan is not eligible to continue occupying Taiping Island, which was returned to China in accordance with the unconditional surrender signed by Japan.
And it wouldn't be China who takes the initiative to escalate thus accelerate the timeline and hasten military conflict with the US.
Retaking the islands as a response like you suggest would serve more to embolden Taipei's resolve to actually declare independence outright than either party is ready for at this juncture in time.
How it would embolden Taiwan to proclaim independence? I really don't get it. The sword of Damocles is not the islands but Taiwan being directly across a shallow strait from mainland. I don't think Taiwanese independence lunatics care about the islands near mainland that much since no one is dumb enough to think they would be able to hold them in case of war.
You can't take Penghu without first degrading ROC Navy and Air Force. What's the point of bombing Taiwan and only take Penghu?
Flew past the Phillippines. Seems to be headed to Singapore.
Just like you said, Taiwan wouldn't be able to hold them. Taipei doesn't care about the islands, neither does Beijing, but not in the context of holding the islands for their strategic value in a war. This is about goading China to make the first move, and China not doing anything with those islands so as not to give Taipei a legitimate reason to declare independence on the flip side.
As soon as the PLA captures any one rock under ROC administration, the gloves are off. You won't even have to guess what they're gonna say: "The PRC is initiating force reunification!"
What do you think Taiwan will do next, then?
Wasn't there news some weeks ago that China informed the US they'll no longer tolerate CSGs traversing the Taiwan strait or was that fake news from the American side?
When China staked it's claim in the South China Sea with rapid islands construction in 2013-2016, the PLA was an order of magnitude weaker and the island positions more exposed to US military strikes compared to Taiwan. Now the stakes are much higher for both sides when it comes to Taiwan. "Unofficial" visits from various Western countries have been happening with more and more frequency, China must know this kind of crisis would happen sooner rather than later.
I don't know what will happen if Pelosi goes to Taiwan and what form the response will take, but personally I think China isn't all that unhappy if it happens, and will see it as a chance to flip the tables on the US and the Taiwan independence forces.
When China staked it's claim in the South China Sea with rapid islands construction in 2013-2016, the PLA was an order of magnitude weaker and the island positions more exposed to US military strikes compared to Taiwan. Now the stakes are much higher for both sides when it comes to Taiwan. "Unofficial" visits from various Western countries have been happening with more and more frequency, China must know this kind of crisis would happen sooner rather than later.
I don't know what will happen if Pelosi goes to Taiwan and what form the response will take, but personally I think China isn't all that unhappy if it happens, and will see it as a chance to flip the tables on the US and the Taiwan independence forces.
supercat
Colonel
Sneaky Nancy pretends nothing will happen?
WW3 averted?
WW3 averted?
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