Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Kich said:
I have longed resigned myself to believing this issue will only end in AR. This question in my head has always been when.

In this post, I'm going to foolishly attempt to predict the course of action that Xi's military and govt. will take this decade. I don't support any side on this nearly 100 year old issue in the region. Just an observer with free time on hand.

There are too many things going against China for Taiwan issue to be resolve peacefully. Just listing some: Massive cultural influence the West has over China, DPP popularity on the island, their young generation increasingly identifying as Taiwanese proper, the ever increasing antagonist relationship between China and US, the still dominance of US economy and currency, etc.

Starting with this baseline of thinking helps in viewing situations and flashpoints like this week. Why I never believed Xi was ever doing anything extreme and crazy. Check my content history.

China going to war against Taiwan to claim Taiwan is inevitable and its outcome is increasing predictable.
But China fighting the US and Japan in that war is not inevitable. And this part heavily depends on some factors.

These factors are mostly militarily and a little bit economic.

Military.
China is going to use force to re-united with Taiwan. There's a very small chance it happens peacefully and I will mention that at the end, but everything points to AR. That point is clear.

What isn't clear is whether US intervenes. And any US intervention will involve Japan. So observers looking at this geopolitically situation need to view it not as a war between US and China but as a war between US/Japan vs China. US can't fight China without its bases in Japan. So Japan will need to be involve somewhat. There are some things China can take to prevent Japan's involvement and I will list those as well.

If AR is certain and China wants to ensure maximum success, it needs to assume US/Japan will fight it at such time. For that it needs to start a massive purposefully military build-up along with its military modernization.
This means that while big-ticket items are being R&D with prototypes being introduced slowly and re-modified, proven gears will be churned more in numbers.

The thing is, PLA are already doing it. Proven items like J-10, J-15, J-16, Type-052D, Type-054A are in continuation production. They might become obsolete next decade and beyond but for now they are needed just because of pure numbers game. The govt. know that conflict looks increasingly likely and are building up their numbers even in items not survivable in the future.

Newer items like the J-20, Type-055, and even Type-003 needs increased production for PLA to have a chance of success against US/Japan forces. IMO PLAN should build 2 more Type 003 (one at each of the 2 major shipbuilding yards to prep them and retain skills for Type-004 CVN but that's just my opinion).

Upcoming items like J-3X and J-35, H-20, Type-095 and Type-096, newer Type-0xx SSKs will give PLA not only a better chance against US/Japan but a strong deterrent in preventing them from even entering the fight against China.

The one area I think PLA are lacking but I don't have a clear view of is the submarine domain. Subs will be tip of the spear and the final hammer (SSBN) if things goes nuclear for both sides. PLAN is severely behind USN in potent SSN and SSBN capabilities. They don't need to match their rivals numbers but introduction of 095 and 096 in a couple dozens of quantity will massively improve the survival of PLAN surface fleet. I think PLAN will need SSN vessels tagging along if needs vessels to venture further east of Taiwan and past the Bashi Channel into the Pacific and Philippine sea. A potent force of SSNs will make things much tougher for USN subs to even enter ECS and SCS where SSK are better suited for as an ambush force due to their slow speeds.
Click to expand...
I agree. If there are throughput limitations, putting new SSBN and CVN on hold for now is OK in exchange for perfecting and mass producing a few key pieces of the puzzle:

1. at least 8x 095 and 16x 041 subs - accounting for distance and different readiness rates
2. at least 5x 003s total - this is accounting for 75% readiness rate of conventional carriers vs. 65% of CVN.
3. at least 300x J-20s - again accounting for distance
4. at least 50x DF-41 TELs and 100x in silos with at least 3 warheads each.
5. at least 24x 055 total
6. at least 400x J-16 total
7. at least 600x J-10C total
8. at least 200x PHL-16 MRLS
9. at least 300x DF-26

This is very realistic to produce within 5-10 years. I think CVN and SSBN are prestige projects for now due to geographic limitations.
 
B

Botnet

Junior Member
Registered Member
Curiously, every western analysis of a Taiwan invasion I've seen is based upon the assumption that an invasion will take place with the forces available to the modern day PLA, instead of the available forces 5, 10, or 15 years on, when an invasion is realistic. Not to mention that China could easily ramp up military expenditures if a conflict is inevitable.
 
Strangelove

Strangelove

Colonel
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Putting the Genocide-7 in their place...

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Chinese Foreign Ministry summons European, Japanese envoys to protest against G7's wrong statement on Taiwan question, urging countries not to go further down dangerous path

By Global Times Published: Aug 05, 2022 10:54 AM Updated: Aug 05, 2022 12:54 PM


The entrance to the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Beijing, capital of China.File Photo: Xinhua

The entrance to the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Beijing, capital of China. File Photo: Xinhua

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Deng Li summoned relevant European envoys and Japanese envoy over the negative statement issued by the G7 and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy over the Taiwan question, which has been slammed as a piece of waste paper that distorted the facts and confused the right and wrong, blatantly interfering in China's internal affairs and sending wrong signal to the secessionists in Taiwan.

China firmly opposes to the G7 statement and staged a solemn representation, Deng said, according to a statement issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday after Deng summoned relevant European envoys. As one-China principle is universally recognized basic rules for international relations and global consensus, which also serve as the political foundation for China's relations with those countries and the absolute red line and bottom line that can't be crossed.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a blatant political maneuver and serious intrusion of China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, Deng said. China surely has to respond with no hesitation. The EU side has not dissuaded and condemned the US for instigating an attempt to split China and escalate the cross-Straits tensions, instead, it claimed that "there is no change in the respective one China policies, where applicable, and basic positions on Taiwan of the G7 members." This seriously violates the one-China principle, delivering a heavy blow to the political foundation of the bilateral relations.

Both the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Chinese Mission to the EU slammed the G7 statement on Thursday, calling it evil and shameless, which is reminiscent of the "Eight-Power Allied Forces" that invaded China a hundred years ago. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi also firmly refuted the statement, saying that it confused right with the wrong and its wrong deeds have aroused the strong indignation of the Chinese people.

Wang also told at an interview during the foreign ministers' meetings on East Asia cooperation in Cambodia that the G7 statement is a piece of waste paper. If we don't pressure the aggressor but pressure the defender, where's the justice and where's the basic norm for international relations? Wang asked.

"Non-interference in internal affairs is the most basic principle to maintain peace and stability in our world. We cannot allow the law of the jungle to dominate our state-to-state relations again. I believe that this so-called statement is just a piece of waste paper," he said.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry also summoned the Japanese Ambassador to China Hideo Tarumi on Thursday for Japan's wrong position with the G7 and EU concerning the Taiwan question, as the ministry's statement showed. It seriously violated basic rules governing international relations and four China-Japan political documents, the ministry said.

The Taiwan question concerns the political foundation of China-Japan relations and basic trust between the two countries. Japan colonized Taiwan island for a long time and bears historic culpability, and should be more cautious in its words and deeds, Deng told the Japanese envoy.

China strongly urges Japan to abide by the principles of the four political documents between China and Japan and its political commitments on the Taiwan question, stop interfering in China's internal affairs, handle Taiwan-related issues prudently and properly, and not go further and further down the wrong path, the Chinese official said.
 
J

JewPizza

Junior Member
Registered Member
Kich said:
I have longed resigned myself to believing this issue will only end in AR. This question in my head has always been when.

In this post, I'm going to foolishly attempt to predict the course of action that Xi's military and govt. will take this decade. I don't support any side on this nearly 100 year old issue in the region. Just an observer with free time on hand.

There are too many things going against China for Taiwan issue to be resolve peacefully. Just listing some: Massive cultural influence the West has over China, DPP popularity on the island, their young generation increasingly identifying as Taiwanese proper, the ever increasing antagonist relationship between China and US, the still dominance of US economy and currency, etc.

Starting with this baseline of thinking helps in viewing situations and flashpoints like this week. Why I never believed Xi was ever doing anything extreme and crazy. Check my content history.

China going to war against Taiwan to claim Taiwan is inevitable and its outcome is increasing predictable.
But China fighting the US and Japan in that war is not inevitable. And this part heavily depends on some factors.

These factors are mostly militarily and a little bit economic.

Military.
China is going to use force to re-united with Taiwan. There's a very small chance it happens peacefully and I will mention that at the end, but everything points to AR. That point is clear.

What isn't clear is whether US intervenes. And any US intervention will involve Japan. So observers looking at this geopolitically situation need to view it not as a war between US and China but as a war between US/Japan vs China. US can't fight China without its bases in Japan. So Japan will need to be involve somewhat. There are some things China can take to prevent Japan's involvement and I will list those as well.

If AR is certain and China wants to ensure maximum success, it needs to assume US/Japan will fight it at such time. For that it needs to start a massive purposefully military build-up along with its military modernization.
This means that while big-ticket items are being R&D with prototypes being introduced slowly and re-modified, proven gears will be churned more in numbers.

The thing is, PLA are already doing it. Proven items like J-10, J-15, J-16, Type-052D, Type-054A are in continuation production. They might become obsolete next decade and beyond but for now they are needed just because of pure numbers game. The govt. know that conflict looks increasingly likely and are building up their numbers even in items not survivable in the future.

Newer items like the J-20, Type-055, and even Type-003 needs increased production for PLA to have a chance of success against US/Japan forces. IMO PLAN should build 2 more Type 003 (one at each of the 2 major shipbuilding yards to prep them and retain skills for Type-004 CVN but that's just my opinion).

Upcoming items like J-3X and J-35, H-20, Type-095 and Type-096, newer Type-0xx SSKs will give PLA not only a better chance against US/Japan but a strong deterrent in preventing them from even entering the fight against China.

The one area I think PLA are lacking but I don't have a clear view of is the submarine domain. Subs will be tip of the spear and the final hammer (SSBN) if things goes nuclear for both sides. PLAN is severely behind USN in potent SSN and SSBN capabilities. They don't need to match their rivals numbers but introduction of 095 and 096 in a couple dozens of quantity will massively improve the survival of PLAN surface fleet. I think PLAN will need SSN vessels tagging along if needs vessels to venture further east of Taiwan and past the Bashi Channel into the Pacific and Philippine sea. A potent force of SSNs will make things much tougher for USN subs to even enter ECS and SCS where SSK are better suited for as an ambush force due to their slow speeds.

So militarily PLA are better off putting things off well into the future where they can be ready in both quantity and quality.
The opposite is true for the US. They are better off if things happened now instead of the future where they hold massive advantage in quantity of certain key quality items.

The question now for PLA is when. When will they have enough in quality to hold their own against US/Japan forces? This answer to this timeline probably determines when PLA will feel even more confident and boastfulness of taking Taiwan by force. At that moment in time, if something like what happened this week happens, I'm absolutely certain it will kick start an AR from China.

I think it takes China the entirety of this decade to build-up numbers/gears and training with those gears to be ready. Next decade is when things get hot.

How China can prevent Japan from participating in this conflict are 2 things.
  • If during the actual conflict they directly avoid striking US bases in Japan. Of course they can engage US assets that leave that base and are not in immediate Japanese territory. But even so, the fact that Japan are even allowing US to operate their bases in Japan makes them a participant, but not an active participant which I think if China wants to prevent Japan from becoming one, they avoid striking the land even if they are US targets. Japan's exclusion tremendously helps China against the US.
  • China can threaten to seize some of Japan's outliers islands if they enter the conflict, but such threats can backfire and induce anger and force Japan to enter since they can claim they are defending their outer islands. This threat move is an unwise one and probably won't be acted upon by China. But I think if Japan enters and China is successful in seizing Taiwan first and foremost, they might seize some of the disputed islands while fighting both US/Japan.

Economics.
Talking about how this factor plays into a war between US/Japan and China is not as important in my opinion. Countries go to war all the time even when they enjoy massive economic interconnections among them. There's less reason why this can prevent a war between them if tensions rise.
As both sides server ties economically--US and China--there will be less things holding them back if they decide to go to war. The perceived damaged a war will do to their connected economics will be viewed as insignificant.

Conclusion.
Whether US/Japan and China have a war because of Taiwan heavily depends on the military standings of both sides. At that time , if China is viewed as very strong militarily (which requires them increasing production in some key technology: nuclear subs, VLO crafts, more VLS count, slightly more carriers), then US/Japan will re-evaluate the cost-benefit for intervention and might not intervene. But if they do, the war will be still be conventional and mostly remain at sea with some island hopping maneuvers.

Whether it ventures to nuclear domain depends on the heads of state at that time and how much risk they are willing to take. This is where Japan might pull the plug on the US plans to even enter the war.
If China can seize Taiwan is less than a month (meaning complete air and sea control with some minor beach landings), it might decide to defend their claims with nukes thus throwing a wrench into US plans.
China building a strong and credible 2nd strike deterrent (SSBNs) might decide things for Washington.

The chance that AR doesn't happen but instead Taiwan issue is resolve in PR is very small and it depends on both China's military being perceived as very capable and stronger than the US especially in the region and if China's economy dominates not just the region but the world. And this requires the complete collapse of US economy and their hegemony from an unexpected event that occurs to them. This probability is extremely low.

As longs as, US remains competent and capable both military and economically domain, AR is the only outcome.
Click to expand...
I agree with pretty much everything you said, however, there is still one important question missing. Who would be the leader of China in charge of AR? The reason I ask this is b/c some people suspect that Xi wants to make Taiwan his legacy. If Xi really wanted to make Taiwan his legacy, he could just get his 3rd term, and once the type 003 is operational, China could launch AR by blockading Taiwan. Then, China would get naval and air supremacy and fight off US/Japan. Under this AR, China can only break the 1st island chain and not the rest.

My question to you and everyone else here is do you guys think Xi is really desperate to make Taiwan his legacy that he would go for AR in his 3rd term. Or, in a very unlikely scenario, Xi can get a 3rd and 4th term and launch AR around 2030.
 
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