Assessment from former deputy defense sec on the Taiwanese crisis
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
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So, I thought I’d try at a rough guesstimate based on distance scaling between foreground and background objects. I couldn’t quite get a handle of how tall that cooling tower is, but based on the number of floors of the building in front of the cooling tower and of the nearby lamp posts on the street, I’d venture a guess that the cooling tower is about 300-500 feet tall. The ROCN ship in the foreground should be a Knox class frigate about 430 feet long. That ship in the foreground is about 10~11 times longer than the tower in the background is tall. At a 0 degree viewing arc 1 extra unit of height reduction corresponds to 1 extra unit of distance. The viewing arc up to 30 degrees can make that relationship increase by at most 15%. So if we assume the tower is 500 feet tall, if it were placed in the foreground where the ROCN frigate is positioned it would be maybe 11-12 times taller than what its height is in the image background. Which means a super rough top end estimate for the distance of the ROCN ship from shore is about 6800 ft away from shore, or about 2 km. Just to be generous, assume double that position between the PLAN ship and the ROCN ship, and you would get 4 km. So regardless of how conservative we end up being about how close the PLAN ship is, I think it’s pretty safe to say we’re well under the standard 12 nautical mile perimeter of another state’s territorial waters.
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You've just summarised life on planet earth.
Same as it ever was.
It's not like the USA is a rational thinker, has some sort of continuity of action based on ethical and moral principles - it is more like a force of nature, it just does stuff, like a child might, or an adult with a personality disorder or two (or am i the one projecting, now!
)
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To retaliate against China's blockade and live military exercise, Taiwan army too launched missiles. The result is they set fire on a forest covered hill. Their military exercise was thus terminated. Taiwan media is pretty honest. They didn't blame it on the PLA. LAMOOO
these kids will fight with PLA ? suicide mission
seems like without US intervention, Taiwan war will be over within 2 or 3 days.
these kids will fight with PLA ? suicide mission
seems like without US intervention, Taiwan war will be over within 2 or 3 days.
I have longed resigned myself to believing this issue will only end in AR. This question in my head has always been when.
In this post, I'm going to foolishly attempt to predict the course of action that Xi's military and govt. will take this decade. I don't support any side on this nearly 100 year old issue in the region. Just an observer with free time on hand.
There are too many things going against China for Taiwan issue to be resolve peacefully. Just listing some: Massive cultural influence the West has over China, DPP popularity on the island, their young generation increasingly identifying as Taiwanese proper, the ever increasing antagonist relationship between China and US, the still dominance of US economy and currency, etc.
Starting with this baseline of thinking helps in viewing situations and flashpoints like this week. Why I never believed Xi was ever doing anything extreme and crazy. Check my content history.
China going to war against Taiwan to claim Taiwan is inevitable and its outcome is increasing predictable.
But China fighting the US and Japan in that war is not inevitable. And this part heavily depends on some factors.
These factors are mostly militarily and a little bit economic.
Military.
China is going to use force to re-united with Taiwan. There's a very small chance it happens peacefully and I will mention that at the end, but everything points to AR. That point is clear.
What isn't clear is whether US intervenes. And any US intervention will involve Japan. So observers looking at this geopolitically situation need to view it not as a war between US and China but as a war between US/Japan vs China. US can't fight China without its bases in Japan. So Japan will need to be involve somewhat. There are some things China can take to prevent Japan's involvement and I will list those as well.
If AR is certain and China wants to ensure maximum success, it needs to assume US/Japan will fight it at such time. For that it needs to start a massive purposefully military build-up along with its military modernization.
This means that while big-ticket items are being R&D with prototypes being introduced slowly and re-modified, proven gears will be churned more in numbers.
The thing is, PLA are already doing it. Proven items like J-10, J-15, J-16, Type-052D, Type-054A are in continuation production. They might become obsolete next decade and beyond but for now they are needed just because of pure numbers game. The govt. know that conflict looks increasingly likely and are building up their numbers even in items not survivable in the future.
Newer items like the J-20, Type-055, and even Type-003 needs increased production for PLA to have a chance of success against US/Japan forces. IMO PLAN should build 2 more Type 003 (one at each of the 2 major shipbuilding yards to prep them and retain skills for Type-004 CVN but that's just my opinion).
Upcoming items like J-3X and J-35, H-20, Type-095 and Type-096, newer Type-0xx SSKs will give PLA not only a better chance against US/Japan but a strong deterrent in preventing them from even entering the fight against China.
The one area I think PLA are lacking but I don't have a clear view of is the submarine domain. Subs will be tip of the spear and the final hammer (SSBN) if things goes nuclear for both sides. PLAN is severely behind USN in potent SSN and SSBN capabilities. They don't need to match their rivals numbers but introduction of 095 and 096 in a couple dozens of quantity will massively improve the survival of PLAN surface fleet. I think PLAN will need SSN vessels tagging along if needs vessels to venture further east of Taiwan and past the Bashi Channel into the Pacific and Philippine sea. A potent force of SSNs will make things much tougher for USN subs to even enter ECS and SCS where SSK are better suited for as an ambush force due to their slow speeds.
So militarily PLA are better off putting things off well into the future where they can be ready in both quantity and quality.
The opposite is true for the US. They are better off if things happened now instead of the future where they hold massive advantage in quantity of certain key quality items.
The question now for PLA is when. When will they have enough in quality to hold their own against US/Japan forces? This answer to this timeline probably determines when PLA will feel even more confident and boastfulness of taking Taiwan by force. At that moment in time, if something like what happened this week happens, I'm absolutely certain it will kick start an AR from China.
I think it takes China the entirety of this decade to build-up numbers/gears and training with those gears to be ready. Next decade is when things get hot.
How China can prevent Japan from participating in this conflict are 2 things.
Economics.
Talking about how this factor plays into a war between US/Japan and China is not as important in my opinion. Countries go to war all the time even when they enjoy massive economic interconnections among them. There's less reason why this can prevent a war between them if tensions rise.
As both sides server ties economically--US and China--there will be less things holding them back if they decide to go to war. The perceived damaged a war will do to their connected economics will be viewed as insignificant.
Conclusion.
Whether US/Japan and China have a war because of Taiwan heavily depends on the military standings of both sides. At that time , if China is viewed as very strong militarily (which requires them increasing production in some key technology: nuclear subs, VLO crafts, more VLS count, slightly more carriers), then US/Japan will re-evaluate the cost-benefit for intervention and might not intervene. But if they do, the war will be still be conventional and mostly remain at sea with some island hopping maneuvers.
Whether it ventures to nuclear domain depends on the heads of state at that time and how much risk they are willing to take. This is where Japan might pull the plug on the US plans to even enter the war.
If China can seize Taiwan is less than a month (meaning complete air and sea control with some minor beach landings), it might decide to defend their claims with nukes thus throwing a wrench into US plans.
China building a strong and credible 2nd strike deterrent (SSBNs) might decide things for Washington.
The chance that AR doesn't happen but instead Taiwan issue is resolve in PR is very small and it depends on both China's military being perceived as very capable and stronger than the US especially in the region and if China's economy dominates not just the region but the world. And this requires the complete collapse of US economy and their hegemony from an unexpected event that occurs to them. This probability is extremely low.
As longs as, US remains competent and capable both military and economically domain, AR is the only outcome.
In this post, I'm going to foolishly attempt to predict the course of action that Xi's military and govt. will take this decade. I don't support any side on this nearly 100 year old issue in the region. Just an observer with free time on hand.
There are too many things going against China for Taiwan issue to be resolve peacefully. Just listing some: Massive cultural influence the West has over China, DPP popularity on the island, their young generation increasingly identifying as Taiwanese proper, the ever increasing antagonist relationship between China and US, the still dominance of US economy and currency, etc.
Starting with this baseline of thinking helps in viewing situations and flashpoints like this week. Why I never believed Xi was ever doing anything extreme and crazy. Check my content history.
China going to war against Taiwan to claim Taiwan is inevitable and its outcome is increasing predictable.
But China fighting the US and Japan in that war is not inevitable. And this part heavily depends on some factors.
These factors are mostly militarily and a little bit economic.
Military.
China is going to use force to re-united with Taiwan. There's a very small chance it happens peacefully and I will mention that at the end, but everything points to AR. That point is clear.
What isn't clear is whether US intervenes. And any US intervention will involve Japan. So observers looking at this geopolitically situation need to view it not as a war between US and China but as a war between US/Japan vs China. US can't fight China without its bases in Japan. So Japan will need to be involve somewhat. There are some things China can take to prevent Japan's involvement and I will list those as well.
If AR is certain and China wants to ensure maximum success, it needs to assume US/Japan will fight it at such time. For that it needs to start a massive purposefully military build-up along with its military modernization.
This means that while big-ticket items are being R&D with prototypes being introduced slowly and re-modified, proven gears will be churned more in numbers.
The thing is, PLA are already doing it. Proven items like J-10, J-15, J-16, Type-052D, Type-054A are in continuation production. They might become obsolete next decade and beyond but for now they are needed just because of pure numbers game. The govt. know that conflict looks increasingly likely and are building up their numbers even in items not survivable in the future.
Newer items like the J-20, Type-055, and even Type-003 needs increased production for PLA to have a chance of success against US/Japan forces. IMO PLAN should build 2 more Type 003 (one at each of the 2 major shipbuilding yards to prep them and retain skills for Type-004 CVN but that's just my opinion).
Upcoming items like J-3X and J-35, H-20, Type-095 and Type-096, newer Type-0xx SSKs will give PLA not only a better chance against US/Japan but a strong deterrent in preventing them from even entering the fight against China.
The one area I think PLA are lacking but I don't have a clear view of is the submarine domain. Subs will be tip of the spear and the final hammer (SSBN) if things goes nuclear for both sides. PLAN is severely behind USN in potent SSN and SSBN capabilities. They don't need to match their rivals numbers but introduction of 095 and 096 in a couple dozens of quantity will massively improve the survival of PLAN surface fleet. I think PLAN will need SSN vessels tagging along if needs vessels to venture further east of Taiwan and past the Bashi Channel into the Pacific and Philippine sea. A potent force of SSNs will make things much tougher for USN subs to even enter ECS and SCS where SSK are better suited for as an ambush force due to their slow speeds.
So militarily PLA are better off putting things off well into the future where they can be ready in both quantity and quality.
The opposite is true for the US. They are better off if things happened now instead of the future where they hold massive advantage in quantity of certain key quality items.
The question now for PLA is when. When will they have enough in quality to hold their own against US/Japan forces? This answer to this timeline probably determines when PLA will feel even more confident and boastfulness of taking Taiwan by force. At that moment in time, if something like what happened this week happens, I'm absolutely certain it will kick start an AR from China.
I think it takes China the entirety of this decade to build-up numbers/gears and training with those gears to be ready. Next decade is when things get hot.
How China can prevent Japan from participating in this conflict are 2 things.
- If during the actual conflict they directly avoid striking US bases in Japan. Of course they can engage US assets that leave that base and are not in immediate Japanese territory. But even so, the fact that Japan are even allowing US to operate their bases in Japan makes them a participant, but not an active participant which I think if China wants to prevent Japan from becoming one, they avoid striking the land even if they are US targets. Japan's exclusion tremendously helps China against the US.
- China can threaten to seize some of Japan's outliers islands if they enter the conflict, but such threats can backfire and induce anger and force Japan to enter since they can claim they are defending their outer islands. This threat move is an unwise one and probably won't be acted upon by China. But I think if Japan enters and China is successful in seizing Taiwan first and foremost, they might seize some of the disputed islands while fighting both US/Japan.
Economics.
Talking about how this factor plays into a war between US/Japan and China is not as important in my opinion. Countries go to war all the time even when they enjoy massive economic interconnections among them. There's less reason why this can prevent a war between them if tensions rise.
As both sides server ties economically--US and China--there will be less things holding them back if they decide to go to war. The perceived damaged a war will do to their connected economics will be viewed as insignificant.
Conclusion.
Whether US/Japan and China have a war because of Taiwan heavily depends on the military standings of both sides. At that time , if China is viewed as very strong militarily (which requires them increasing production in some key technology: nuclear subs, VLO crafts, more VLS count, slightly more carriers), then US/Japan will re-evaluate the cost-benefit for intervention and might not intervene. But if they do, the war will be still be conventional and mostly remain at sea with some island hopping maneuvers.
Whether it ventures to nuclear domain depends on the heads of state at that time and how much risk they are willing to take. This is where Japan might pull the plug on the US plans to even enter the war.
If China can seize Taiwan is less than a month (meaning complete air and sea control with some minor beach landings), it might decide to defend their claims with nukes thus throwing a wrench into US plans.
China building a strong and credible 2nd strike deterrent (SSBNs) might decide things for Washington.
The chance that AR doesn't happen but instead Taiwan issue is resolve in PR is very small and it depends on both China's military being perceived as very capable and stronger than the US especially in the region and if China's economy dominates not just the region but the world. And this requires the complete collapse of US economy and their hegemony from an unexpected event that occurs to them. This probability is extremely low.
As longs as, US remains competent and capable both military and economically domain, AR is the only outcome.
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I think Taiwan needs some 200kg fire fighting guided bombs and some fire fighting MLRS.
I mentioned in a previous post that the best strategy for china in the event of a major offensive against Taiwan is to slowly squeeze Taiwan through long term semi-blockade where you selectively allow the ingress and egress of ships/cargo. Friendly nations for example could come and go. This forces the ball of escalation into US and Taiwanese hands. Do you stand by and do nothing? Do you give an ultimatum to China to end the blockade, do you risk a shooting war where China does not fire the first shot if china says no to the ultimatum? Of course all of this predicated on the assumption US never had any intention to militarily intervene.
The least ideal situation is for China to storm Taiwan D-Day style due to the risks and complexities. A semi-blockade will eventually force the Taiwanese to negotiate a deal.
The least ideal situation is for China to storm Taiwan D-Day style due to the risks and complexities. A semi-blockade will eventually force the Taiwanese to negotiate a deal.
There's no situation where China will storm Taiwan in a manner like Normandy.
LMAO
However, it is noted that vast majority of the Lithuanian people disagree with their government's policy on China.
Another case-&-point where the government leadership elites completely lost touch with their own people and reality in blind pursuit of acknowledgement from their masters in DC.
However, it is noted that vast majority of the Lithuanian people disagree with their government's policy on China.
Another case-&-point where the government leadership elites completely lost touch with their own people and reality in blind pursuit of acknowledgement from their masters in DC.
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I hope they go through with attempting to visit and a good example is made of them
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