Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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call me a distracted pla observer but I had not realised the plaaf still routinely uses su-30s, at least not in the numbers seen yesterday and probably today as well
Using the Russian platforms in inventory because it gives away less intel for signals snooping and observations on movements and tactics.
Hence why we saw the Su-35s be sent out days ago.
Russian platforms make up a much smaller proportion of inventory and give less away in terms of what electronic signatures and tactics are used by the mainstay and frontline platforms (not Russian).
Two can play the salami-slicing game. The DPP salami-slicing towards Taiwanese independence. The PLA salami-slicing towards the Taiwanese mainland.
Now the PLA has crossed the median line. If the DPP salami slices some more. The PLA will eventually reach the coast of Taiwan mainland. See who loses their nerves 1st. The PLA will challenge the Taiwanese to shoot first. If they do, then they can blame the DPP for triggering AR.
If the West protests. Then China can say: "Hey we wanted peaceful reunification all along. But those DPP terrorists started shooting 1st. So we just had to shoot back and get rid of them from office".
China not coorperating on climate change is a big one.
As it stands, US is trying to leverage Jevon's paradox to get China to self harm by lowering China's EROEI whilsts directly benefitting America to allow US to climb ahead... its like when Trump wanted China to cap its nuke count while the US itself got out of the treaty etc....
US is China's #1 existential threat, until that threat has been resolved, China can ill afford to think of the climate
Kinmen and other outlying islands may have little strategic or economic value but they are great starting points for potential PRC salami slicing.
PRC can first start with overflights of some of the smaller ROC controlled islands near the mainland, which has already been done in the recent flare up. Once that become a regular and accepted practice, PRC can start with overflights of the bigger Kinmen and Matsu islands. After that also become regular and accepted practice, we move on to overflights of Penghu, followed by islands just off the coast of Taiwan like Little Liuqiu, Green island, etc. Similar salami slicing can also be performed with PRC ships entering territorial waters of these islands, followed by boarding and inspection of ships under the guise of law enforcement.
Each incremental step in this salami slicing can also be timed as responses to provocative moves by Taiwan independence forces, such as visits by foreign politicians or officials, attempts to join international bodies, etc., to further reduce the likelihood of international criticism and sanctions.
Yes, I agree there is no point in taking and occupying these islands. Keeping them under ROC control is far more useful from diplomatic and psychological perspective as they can be used to demonstrate PRC sovereignty over territories controlled by the ROC and make the Taiwanese psychologically accept the total dominance of the PLA.
If the UK visits in December then it gives them a chance to do another exercise and potentially further moves. Another soft blockade would be annoying for companies during the holiday season.
Looks like Taiwanese independence is an IJA operation in disguese lol.
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