Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
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They might extend the exercise by more days then.
Now, we'll see what the PLA action is going to be.

I don't know how well Col.Douglas Macgregor is receive on this forum but he had a long interview with this surprisingly balanced (almost pro-China) American Anglo-Saxon YouTuber. Col. Macgregor who served with as superior officer to now super hawkish anti-China H.R. Macmaster back in the 1st Gulf War, he also holds a PhD in International Relations, and served under Trump in the DOD. Macgregor had a pretty blunt and honest assessment on his take on the current Sino-U.S. relations and more...

 

BoraTas

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Has this been posted? This is the Fox news white house correspondent so it's fairly credible
The opportunist in me says this is a good opportunity to reverse the sentiment. China has a CSG close by. Just send it along with an absurd amount of escorts. Have them so close to the RR that no photo op is possible. Continue exercises normally while all of these are happening.
This is the second humiliation attempt. China can have it backfire on them though.
 

stannislas

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Given last I checked it was still heading northeast, likely later rather than sooner.

But, China could also extend the drills.

So it seems round 2 starts soon.
Uhmmm, both side play their own game, China keep exercise around Taiwan, and us css wonder around

Well, honest speaking, if this has become a new norm, it still not bad for China, us carrier went through Taiwan strait for ages, while China blockage Taiwan is new.

if PLA continues the fire drill like this, even maintain a regularly low intensity, it become de facto situation that PLA has the right and ability to control the flow in and out of Taiwan
 

FairAndUnbiased

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The opportunist in me says this is a good opportunity to reverse the sentiment. China has a CSG close by. Just send it along with an absurd amount of escorts. Have them so close to the RR that no photo op is possible. Continue exercises normally while all of these are happening.
This is the second humiliation attempt. China can have it backfire on them though.
Yep having the Reagan CSG with 1 escort isn't a show of force when there's 2 PLAN CSGs in the water north and south of Taiwan along with 10+ destroyers and N frigates, any one of which can launch a lethal salvo.

So just sail the Liaoning CSG when Reagan enters from the north, hand it off to a surface squadron with 5+ 056s, 3+ 054As and 2+ 052Ds sailing right next to the Reagan CSG, then hand it off to Shandong CSG escorting it back south, all the while PLAN naval aviation is buzzing them at very low altitude to prevent safe launches.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
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The opportunist in me says this is a good opportunity to reverse the sentiment. China has a CSG close by. Just send it along with an absurd amount of escorts. Have them so close to the RR that no photo op is possible. Continue exercises normally while all of these are happening.
This is the second humiliation attempt. China can have it backfire on them though.
1 CV is too little to make a serious show of force.

So makes me think this is US' way of keeping some face and saying "we've done something at least", and they'll send the Reagan after all the exercises are finished.

China just needs to meet it with an oversized escort and make sure it passes safely along the straits, with 055s constantly being so close that they photobomb most pictures.

Both sides could deescalate with this. US gets what they want, China will be done with their immediate operations in the straits and top it off with an escort exercise.
 

baykalov

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India-US to hold military exercise near China border amid rising tensions with China

The joint exercise is being planned from 14 to 31 October, during which Indian and American troops will carry out 'maneuvers to exploit the full scope' of high-altitude warfare.

The “Yudh Abhyas” military exercise is taking place in the backdrop of India’s lingering border row with China in eastern Ladakh.

New Delhi: Amid rising tensions with China, India and US will come together for two weeks of high-altitude military exercise in Uttarakhand’s Auli, less than 100 km from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Central Sector, ThePrint has learnt.

“This time it is a very important exercise because the Indian side will be showcasing their high-altitude warfare strategies, while the Americans will be showcasing a number of technologies that can be used in such scenarios. This exercise has been planned in such a way that both sides come together for any scenario,” a source said.

Another source said that various activities have been planned for both sides to fully exploit the two weeks of focused high altitude military exercise and to see how the troops can operate together.

Sources further said this edition of the exercise will see a greater integration of air and ground assets, meaning the Indian Air Force will also play a key role.

India-US tensions with China

India and China have witnessed rising tensions at the LAC over the last two years following the stand-off in Ladakh. Meanwhile, tensions have also risen between the US and China over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s
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Tuesday.

Noting that the Chinese military’s infrastructure build-up under its Western Theatre Command — that looks after India — was “eye-opening and alarming”, US Army Pacific Commanding General Charles Flynn had in June
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that the Indian and American Army will train together this year at 9,000-10,000 feet to increase interoperability for high-altitude warfare.

Interacting with a select group of journalists, Flynn also said Chinese build up along the LAC and construction of villages in Bhutan was “eye-opening”.

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dasCKD

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India-US to hold military exercise near China border amid rising tensions with China
If America wants to deescalate and return things to normal, this seems reckless. Retaliating with more exercises near China is just going to give the PLA more of an excuse to keep pushing against Taiwan's boundaries.

Well, I guess the PRC should be happy that the Americans are just as inept at the whole diplomacy thing as they are. A little parting gift from one Donald Trump, I suppose.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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han1289

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jwnz

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There's a lot of personal attacks in this thread, so I will try to be as objective and brief as I can.

  • It's pretty clear that this is a demonstration of China's intentions in the event of an invasion
  • It won't be an amphibious assault on day 1. There will be a blockade and then massive artillery fire
  • The US probably doesn't have any counter to this even today
  • So the only real question is who will bear the highest economic cost.
  • Right now CCP judges that they have more to lose (rightfully IMO) so they choose to wait.
All in all, I think they have largely played their hand right. The only criticism I have is that the idiots at the ministry of foreign affairs should haven't lost their marbles with insane rhetoric. Xi needs to put a dampener on them.
In hindsight, I think the seemingly bluffing and rhetoric was calculated to bait the US to overreact by deploying the RR CSG and other assets to protect Pelosi, and corner her to an extent that she / US couldn't have backed down.

Without the high drama of her visit with military escort and what not, the resulting Chinese military drills would not have been possible without massive international outcry and condemnation.
 
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