Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Strangelove said:

Not just Friedman, others too, starting to realize a two-front war isn't a good idea.

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Oh yeah Friedman who was taunting about cancelling China... The West that can't get their lies straight. I thought Xi was President for life. Now all of the sudden Xi has to appease to get a third term? That's not President for life.

Like I said in a previous post, if anyone thinks shooting down Pelosi's plane is the right action, then why not just attack Taiwan and destroy its economic and technology infrastructure instead? Shooting down her plane is just messaging. You want Taiwan to pay the price by denying their importance and becoming useless to the West. That will happen no matter what. You want Taiwanese to know what little the US will do for them. You want Zelensky to feel the US is letting them down because the West has to deal with two fronts of their own making. You get nothing but black and white messaging shooting down her plane and the US will definitely engage with China in a military conflict. Attacking Taiwan where even Taiwan is wondering if the US will be there for them... Taiwan ain't coming out of it anytime soon.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Quoting one of the sentences:


Notice the word "including". That means Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan are very likely not the only destinations for her Asia trip, as other countries in the region could also be included.

Most importantly, Taiwan can also be included as well. Hence, the situation remains fluid. Pelosi visiting Taiwan is still very much a real possibility.

Until Pelosi's plane leaves Asia and heading back to the US, no conclusion can be made.

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I also feel like there was a long meeting about the obvious topic. Look at the phrase. I bet she was not just touring around all the time.
"we were honored with a briefing from USINDOPACOM Leadership"

I think Biden already made a push with China on Taiwan, now Pelosi will go to Taiwan and China ain’t gonna do shit. They will do some military drills to try to message.

siegecrossbow said:

So she'll be getting to Taiwan via SCS? Impressive.

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I have seen commentary saying that she will travel to Taiwan from Japan

An 'Alert Memorandum' written by former US intelligence people for the POTUS. It's a good read. But I'm doubtful that this could have reached the POTUS himself.

Some excerpts:

ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
SUBJECT: Military Clash With China Over Pelosi Visit?
REFERENCE:

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to You, May 1, 2022

Mr. President,

We, the undersigned, collectively, have hundreds of years of service to the United States of America in intelligence and national security. We have drawn upon this accumulated experience to communicate to you (and to the three presidents before you) our concerns over controversial national security issues of high importance. On May 1, we wrote you an Alert Memo on Russia-Ukraine. Today, we offer an even more urgent warning of the risk of war – including nuclear war – this time with China.

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That Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan is of grave concern to China is well known. Indeed, you just heard it from the horse’s mouth, so to speak, China’s President Xi Jinping.

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Presumably, your advisers have prepared assessments regarding the extent to which the expressed Chinese concerns articulate genuine existential concerns or are mere saber rattling and diplomatic posturing. We want you to know that it is our collective opinion that such a visit by Speaker Pelosi would be viewed in the most serious light by China; that China would react quite strongly, reflecting the reality that it would consider such a visit close to an existential threat warranting high risk of armed hostilities.

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For the Steering Group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

• Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer (ret.) and Division Director, State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research
• Bogdan Dzakovic, former Team Leader of Federal Air Marshals and Red Team, FAA Security (ret.) (associate VIPs)
• Graham E. Fuller,Vice-Chair, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
• Philip Giraldi, CIA, Operations Officer (ret.)
• Larry Johnson, former CIA Intelligence Officer & former State Department Counter-Terrorism Official (ret.)
• Michael S. Kearns, Captain, USAF Intelligence Agency (ret.), former Master SERE Instructor
• John Kiriakou, former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
• Karen Kwiatkowski, former Lt. Col., US Air Force (ret.), at Office of Secretary of Defense watching the manufacture of lies on Iraq, 2001-2003
• Ray McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst; CIA Presidential briefer (ret.)
• Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East, National Intelligence Council & CIA political analyst (ret.)
• Pedro Israel Orta, former CIA and Intelligence Community (Inspector General) officer
• Todd Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (ret.)
• Scott Ritter, former MAJ., USMC, former UN Weapon Inspector, Iraq
• Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
• Sarah G. Wilton, CDR, USNR, (Retired)/DIA, (Retired)
• Ann Wright, Col., US Army (ret.); Foreign Service Officer (resigned in opposition to the war on Iraq)

Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPs) is made up of former intelligence officers, diplomats, military officers and congressional staffers. The organization, founded in 2002, was among the first critics of Washington’s justifications for launching a war against Iraq. VIPS advocates a US foreign and national security policy based on genuine national interests rather than contrived threats promoted for largely political reasons.

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There are still some sane people in America right now. But these people are getting rarer, and politically irrelevant.

According to intel slava DF-17 has been test launched

escobar said:

I think Biden already made a push with China on Taiwan, now Pelosi will go to Taiwan and China ain’t gonna do shit. They will do some military drills to try to message.

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Except collapse the dollar, cut the USA progressive out of the supply chain and slowly but sure drive the inflation levels in the USA to the point where living in the USA is literally impossible for the 99% to live on and eventually bankrupt the USA by simply leaving them to their own devices . Yeah, China has options and I dare say that not only are these within China’s reach before killing a worthless old prune that is eventually going to get done for inside trading, but really, don’t think that Russia is going to let the USA off for Ukraine, the moment the USA tries to screw with China with a sizable force, Russia is eventually going to pay the USA back with a Poseidon out of nowhere if the USA doesn’t stop mucking around. The USA will eventually wish China did a fancy drill instead because once the US dollar is toast, the USA will be SOL. Salami slicing only works until eventually it doesn’t and that is what is going to cause some serious problems down the road

escobar said:

Yes, you will collapse the dollar with a trick from your ass. Stop talking shit nonsense

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Clearly you didn’t read up on the process of dedollarising that Russia and China are doing with regards to linking their currency up with their commodities with more soon to follow


Nor are you taking into account the fact that the Middle East are not willing to pick up Bidens calls to help ease the ground inflation in The USA and the EU along with basically making a mess of things their


In the end, the actions of the USA isn’t going to stop other nations from progressively ditching the dollar given how unreliable the USA is right now. Admittedly this takes time, but once this sets in, their is no going back

No mention of Taiwan...

she didn't mention Taiwan ..