F-35 Joint Strike Fighter News, Videos and pics Thread

[ACuriousPLAFan]

There is still a difference between how many are produced vs how many are in service right

Yes. Newly-built airframes have to be tested and verified for a certain period of time before they can be delivered to their intended customers, which can take several weeks.

Though, at present, the rate of J-20 induction into active service with the PLAAF should be largely similar to the rate of J-20s rolling off the production lines at Chengdu.

Well, it means that it means - US has more 5th gen right now.
Force ratio doesn't favour equal air combat again US and allies in Westpac. Not yet.

Also you mean against?

 

[mossen]

Well, it means that it means - US has more 5th gen right now.
Force ratio doesn't favour equal air combat againt US and allies in Westpac. Not yet.

You can't just count individual planes. A realistic theater of war would be the SSC and/or the Taiwan strait. China has a much easier pathway to launch and sustain operations from numerous bases along the coastal areas. The US carriers would be sitting ducks in any serious conflict and China would probably blow up Okinawa and other bases on day 1.

Moreover, it's not realistic to think that "US allies" would throw in their entire 5th gen airforce to defend Taiwan, especially on very short notice. Especially in Europe, where the impending loss in Ukraine means they will likely spend the coming years trying to recoup the materiel losses they incurred in the proxy war. Countries like Poland will need their F-35s and so do many other European countries to guard against a resurgent Russia.

Hell, I personally do not think even the US itself would be willing to sacrifice a large number of 5th gen airplanes to defend Taiwan given the uphill odds whereas I do think China would be willing to do so if it meant finishing the Taiwan question once and for all. This also raises the question of how many J-20s China actually needs. I'm not convinced it needs to vastly outproduce the US given this background.

 

[Enestori]

My understanding is the USA produces

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per year. The Pentagon rejected some deliveries last year due to software issues. But these planes are already built and produced. Only their software needs fixing.

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1,250 F-35s in total, with the USA having 806.



I see Japan, Australia, the UK, and Korea directly fighting in any war against China. That's 1,005 F-35s.

(I also forecast other American allies - except Turkey - lending F-35s to the USA in any war.)

	F-35 Production	USA	Allies Directly Fighting China	Other Allies (Lend 50% to USA; no Turkey.)
Total	1250	806	199	215
(Calculation)​		806/1250 = 64%​	199/1250 = 16%​	0.5 * 215/1250 = 9%​
Annual	156	~101	~25	~13

Thus I believe China needs to produce 126 to 139 J-20s annually for the gap to stop widening.

 

[sheogorath]

Well, it means that it means - US has more 5th gen right now.
Force ratio doesn't favour equal air combat again US and allies in Westpac. Not yet.

Thing is, how many of those planes will be combat ready and how many of those can you actually arm and rearm with the West's current missile procurement and production situation?.

Just because you have them on paper, doesn't mean you can actually use them when you want them.

 

[tphuang]

My understanding is the USA produces

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per year. The Pentagon rejected some deliveries last year due to software issues. But these planes are already built and produced. Only their software needs fixing.

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1,250 F-35s in total, with the USA having 806.

View attachment 137570

I see Japan, Australia, the UK, and Korea directly fighting in any war against China. That's 1,005 F-35s.

(I also forecast other American allies - except Turkey - lending F-35s to the USA in any war.)

	F-35 Production	USA	Allies Directly Fighting China	Other Allies (Lend 50% to USA; no Turkey.)
Total	1250	806	199	215
(Calculation)​		806/1250 = 64%​	199/1250 = 16%​	0.5 * 215/1250 = 9%​
Annual	156	~101	~25	~13

Thus I believe China needs to produce 126 to 139 J-20s annually for the gap to stop widening.

This is just awful analysis.

If you want to have Westpac conflict analysis, there are threads for that.

If you want to compare the number of F-35 procured by USAF or US military as a whole and compare that to J-20 procurement numbers, feel free to do that. But use official sources.

 

[totenchan]

My understanding is the USA produces

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per year. The Pentagon rejected some deliveries last year due to software issues. But these planes are already built and produced. Only their software needs fixing.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

1,250 F-35s in total, with the USA having 806.

View attachment 137570

I see Japan, Australia, the UK, and Korea directly fighting in any war against China. That's 1,005 F-35s.

(I also forecast other American allies - except Turkey - lending F-35s to the USA in any war.)

	F-35 Production	USA	Allies Directly Fighting China	Other Allies (Lend 50% to USA; no Turkey.)
Total	1250	806	199	215
(Calculation)​		806/1250 = 64%​	199/1250 = 16%​	0.5 * 215/1250 = 9%​
Annual	156	~101	~25	~13

Thus I believe China needs to produce 126 to 139 J-20s annually for the gap to stop widening.

I do not think Turkey has any F-35s

 

[totenchan]

So basically, we are getting to J-20A about 5 years before F-35 gets to block 4.

Guess what, having a larger aircraft makes upgrades easier.

Comparing Block 4 F-35 and J-20A is completely meaningless unless we know what the intended timeline for the J-20A was in the first place.

 

[Gloire_bb]

You can't just count individual planes.

You absolutely can, it's upfront and is not the whole picture, but it's meaningful. There are more layers, of course, but basic fact will remain unchanged: US has more, and it will remain so for foreseeable horizon.
I would also advice against limiting potential of theater to your preferred scale of conflict. US weaponized whole ring of containment(and whole chain of allies all over the globe) not so you could limit theater to SCS or Taiwan, and most certainly you can't undermine their war fighting capability just by fighting there.

 

[Atomicfrog]

Thing is, how many of those planes will be combat ready and how many of those can you actually arm and rearm with the West's current missile procurement and production situation?.

Just because you have them on paper, doesn't mean you can actually use them when you want them.

Anyway, all these aircrafts cannot teleport themselves across the globe... J-20 are protecting mainland China and most of these F-35 are not in the vicinity to do anything.

In a war scenario we could think about:

1) everything below block 3 are not combat capable, so numbers are somewhat lower.
2) half of the USN and USMC F-35 could be deployed relatively fast enough do do something in the first couple of weeks,
3) You remove half of them that are not able to carry a mission(about 46% combat mission availability right now)

So it makes at most 150 F-35 (b and c) that can be launched in range of China. To reach their objectives, they are doing their take off under a shower of standoff weapons inside J-20 range that are shooting down their tankers if they start farther than standoff range..

J-20 production is well enough to deny most of the threat presently.

 

[Enestori]

If you want to compare the number of F-35 procured by USAF or US military as a whole and compare that to J-20 procurement numbers, feel free to do that. But use official sources.

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that places F-35 production as 156 annually, with this year at ~75-110.

I could not find but am happy to receive more official sources that provide deliveries per country and total production; perhaps such information is classified.