F-35 Joint Strike Fighter News, Videos and pics Thread

[SinoSoldier]

In the event of a Pacific conflict, the US and her allies will do their best to knock out aircraft production within the Chinese mainland. That needs to be taken into account concerning any war scenario. Production figures might or might not be stable in such a situation.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

In the event of a Pacific conflict, the US and her allies will do their best to knock out aircraft production within the Chinese mainland. That needs to be taken into account concerning any war scenario. Production figures might or might not be stable in such a situation.

Yeah, but their best just isn't enough. The effect is overwhelmed by the resources that would be expended in wartime production.

 

[iewgnem]

In the event of a Pacific conflict, the US and her allies will do their best to knock out aircraft production within the Chinese mainland. That needs to be taken into account concerning any war scenario. Production figures might or might not be stable in such a situation.

US doesn't even dare let Ukraine use their long range weapons to to attack Russia, they're fully aware CONUS will be attacked if they touch mainland China and it just take a single ICBM with MIRV to flatten Plant 4, or Norfolk or Ingal, or chip fabs. US production facilities are very few in number and extremely concentrated, and they can't repair infrastructure nearly as far as China. And if you think they'll mistake the ICBM for nuclear attack, China can too.

 

[taxiya]

In the event of a Pacific conflict, the US and her allies will do their best to knock out aircraft production within the Chinese mainland. That needs to be taken into account concerning any war scenario. Production figures might or might not be stable in such a situation.

Your argument reminds me of Taiwan will bomb three gorges dam in case of mainland invasion of Taiwan. Yes, that can happen if you wish, but can anyone bare the consequencies of doing that? For the sake of arguement, if China has to consider your suggestion, so do anyone else in the US camp, then your suggestion becomes pointless.

 

[latenlazy]

Ummm good luck hitting Chengdu from the 1IC lol…

 

[iewgnem]

My understanding is the USA produces

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per year. The Pentagon rejected some deliveries last year due to software issues. But these planes are already built and produced. Only their software needs fixing.

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1,250 F-35s in total, with the USA having 806.

View attachment 137570

I see Japan, Australia, the UK, and Korea directly fighting in any war against China. That's 1,005 F-35s.

(I also forecast other American allies - except Turkey - lending F-35s to the USA in any war.)

	F-35 Production	USA	Allies Directly Fighting China	Other Allies (Lend 50% to USA; no Turkey.)
Total	1250	806	199	215
(Calculation)​		806/1250 = 64%​	199/1250 = 16%​	0.5 * 215/1250 = 9%​
Annual	156	~101	~25	~13

Thus I believe China needs to produce 126 to 139 J-20s annually for the gap to stop widening.

Planes don't spawn into existence on a N vs N test map, and planes don't fly at infinite speed nor have infinite range.
Sortie generation in given theatre is determined by distance to nearest base, capacity of the base, and/or distance to tanker, quantity of tanker and transit time
And there exist a distance to base/tanker beyond which sorties rates gets reduced to negliable numbers
Case in point if F-35 has to take off from CONUS and fly 12 hours after 3 tankers to reach threater, >95% of your fleet will be in transit at a given time and only 5% are useful.
F-35 is also single seat, so pilot fatigue is also a major factor. Americans often forget in a real war reaching threater isn't the end of combat, it's the start.

Two other concepts: it takes 1 missile hit to shoot down a jet regardless of what platform launched it, and being out of range is equivilent to not being detected.
A PL-15 launched by J-16 outside J-16's radar range and outside F-35 engagement range, but with a J-20 up close to guide, can destroy the F-35 just the same as a PL-15 launched by the J-20 itself.
So the number of fighters F-35 has to go up against in the standard J-20 + J-16 pairing isn't just J-20, it's the combined number, and J-16 are also built at rate of 100+ a year.

Finally there's GJ-11 and the out of gate numerical advantage it'll have vs American CCA program.

Does China has enough air power to fly across the Pacific and achieve air dominance over CONUS? Not yet. But China doesn't need to either because Americans masochists who want to lose their airforce flying to China.

 

[Miyayaya]

You absolutely can, it's upfront and is not the whole picture, but it's meaningful. There are more layers, of course, but basic fact will remain unchanged: US has more, and it will remain so for foreseeable horizon.
I would also advice against limiting potential of theater to your preferred scale of conflict. US weaponized whole ring of containment(and whole chain of allies all over the globe) not so you could limit theater to SCS or Taiwan, and most certainly you can't undermine their war fighting capability just by fighting there.

I'm not seeing the logic against theater limitation. For example, South Korea is limited in what they are willing to do. Philippines has no F35s and their basing infrastructures are limited. So whatever countries still only have a limited number of routes to take to participate

 

[Blitzo]

US has accepted delivery of 36 F-35s, from mid July to mid September. Early July is when the deliveries resumed after a lengthy hiatus. Of course, 36 planes per approximately 60 days is not indicative of future delivery pace, as it's sure that part of those were backlog planes.

Because of the backlog and development issues, the 2025 procurement plan (that is, planes to be delivered in 2027 or so) calls for just 42 f35a for USAF. SAR document from December 2023 suggests longer term procurement for DoD to be 42 for USAF for the few years then 48 per year until end of program. And some 25 or so for DoN and then under 40 per year until end of program. (2035 for DoN)

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The document also states that USAF in 2024 is projected to have 467 F-35A in its inventory. DoN will have 169 B models and 121 C models. So the US is currently at roughly 760 airframes. Including the F-22, that's roughly 940 stealthy fighter jets.
China is currently at, what, 250 or 300 ?
And is adding some 100+ per year while US is adding some 70 or so per year?
And will plausibly be adding 120+ per year soon while US currently plans to top out at 80 or so per year?

This article does a decent job of projecting US total F-35 fleets based on current estimates

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The report separately plots a notional buying plan for the F-35A. The Air Force’s plan calls for buying 42 per year in fiscal 2025 and 2026, 47 in both 2027 and 2028, and then a steady 48 per year until 2048, with the last 34 aircraft planned for 2049, for a total of 1,763.

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The Marine Corps buying plan calls for a low of 13 F-35s per year in 2025 and 2026, and a high of 25 in 2032, which is the end year for its planned F-35B procurement, totaling 353 aircraft.
The Navy will similarly vary its buy of carrier-capable F-35Cs from just 13 in fiscal 2025, ramping up to 24 in 2029, and then declining to 15 toward the latter years, ending with 340 F-35Cs by 2035, the planned last year of production for the Navy.

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By the end of fiscal 2029, the Marine Corps expects to have 245 F-35Bs in service, while the Navy expects to have 219 F-35Cs; together totaling 464 aircraft, or about two-thirds of planned Navy/Marine Corps procurement of 693 F-35s.

Together with the Air Force, the U.S. services expect to field 1,128 F-35s by the end of fiscal 2029. The numbers do not include production or fielding for international partners or Foreign Military Sales customers.

 

[sequ]

Together with the Air Force, the U.S. services expect to field 1,128 F-35s by the end of fiscal 2029. The numbers do not include production or fielding for international partners or Foreign Military Sales customers.

Around a 1000 5th gen fighter will be in Chinese service by that time. Around 300 less than total US 5th gen inventory.

 

[bd popeye]

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Marine Maj. Zachary Laser, F-35 Lightning II test pilot from Air Test and Evaluation Squadron Two Three, performs a short takeoff in an F-35B aircraft during carrier qualifications aboard Japan’s Izumo-class multi-functional destroyer JS Kaga (DDH-184) Oct. 21, 2024, off the southern coast of California. Laser is flying the short takeoff and vertical landing variant of the 5th generation aircraft for developmental test aboard the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force’s largest ship. A flight test team from the F-35 Patuxent River Integrated Test Force is aboard to certify the destroyer’s modifications that will support fixed-wing operations from the ship. Data that testers gather during these sea trials will be analyzed and eventually inform decisions to enhance the capabilities of the Maritime Self-Defense Force as well as contribute to improved interoperability between Japan and the U.S. Japan is an F-35 Joint Program Office foreign military sales customer planning to buy 42 F-35Bs. (Photos by Dane Wiedmann F-35 Lightning II Pax River ITF)

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