Quickie
Colonel
How noisy can a submarine be if it's only lurking and not moving much, waiting for the right moment? For all we know, an obsolete North Korean midget sub may be responsible for sinking that modern South Korean warship.
Effectiveness of China's Air Defence?
- Thread starter solarz
- Start date
How noisy can a submarine be if it's only lurking and not moving much, waiting for the right moment? For all we know, an obsolete North Korean midget sub may be responsible for sinking that modern South Korean warship.
missile wise those who think china doesnt have the capability to render anderson or okinawa in-effective is underestimating.
people need to get the idea that "ballistic missiles are inaccurate" out of their head. USAF's prompt global strike program is partially based on ballistic missiles.
each MRBM carries about 5-1000 kg payload. thats 1-2000 lbs.
think what you can do to an air base with 100x1000 lb jdams?
50 ballistic missiles gives you an equivalent strike pacakge tonnage about a wing of F-15Es. or 2-3 B-2s.
now factor in cluster munitions. factor in EMPs. factor in penetrators, factor in anti-radiation seekers that target PAC-IIIs, factor in UAVs that pop out of the payload and loiter around to give the command center real time feedback for the second wave in flight... the possibility is endless.
the part about chinese subs are a joke...in open oceans, may be, littoral. those old diesel subs can just shut down everything and sitting there in the choke points and just waiting for you to come by and snap you with a Yu-6.
btw, those "old subs" may not be that many any more. china got about a dozen Kilos with about a dozen "Yuan+Songs". those are not old and those are not noisy.
Without support from US military bases in Asia, after most of them are destroyed by Chinese MRBM's, US CVBG's would find it very difficult to establish air superiority over the coasts of China, where Chinese J10's and J11's would be holding them off. At best, the US may have a better kill ratio. At worst, the US CVBG's would be under saturation attacks and a good portion of the vessels would be action-killed or sinked. And without air superiority, swarms of Chinese J7's and J8's would be waiting around high-valued assets to hunt down Tomahawks and even B2's. If you were to fantasize that most of the US military bases in Asia could have survived Chinese MRBM's, then you must also agree that the more than 40 super-hardened Chinese airbases protected under mountains, could also have survived the small fraction of Tomahawks that made it through. Once the damages of the Tomahawks are under control, the US subs are also effectively neutralized, especially that it would take them a couple of weeks every round-trip, to reload the Tomahawks from continental US. And for that matter, the US CVBG's that survived would take weeks or even months of refurbishing, before they can return to action. In the end as mentioned earlier, PLAAF would have lots of time to regroup and adjust deployment as necessary. It would develop into an extended confrontation that the US cannot afford.
we all know carpet bomb was not that effective vs precision ammo. the MRBM can hit general area but not a particular building or plane on the ground, it might hit some building, but most likely its gonna hit some parking lot or large open space. look at the size of those bases from aerial view, see how much open space it has, and which target is deem critical, and which is not. is the MRBM precise enough to destroy a command & control tower or hangar thats holding the planes. On top of that i don't think japan/sk will appreciate china lobbing missiles at their country(even its US bases)
as for the subs, i doubt US CVG will get close to chinese shore to allow subs ambush it. the sub can sit there and wait but its big ocean, the chance of CVG come close to chinese sub attack range are very very small. you bet US gonna use all there resource to find those subs and destroy its base.
MRBM can do damage over the base but it will not destroy it.
US will not attack chinese inland at the beginning, it will soften chinese costal defence and cities. most developed cities in china are near costal region anyway. on the west side china still have to worry about US military station in afahan and other areas.
tomhawk its different missile compare to MRBM, its a precision guided weapon not a ballistic missile
solarz
Brigadier
Do you honestly think that Japan/SK is going to expect those bases not to be targeted in the eventuality of an open war between China and US? Seriously? The best those two countries can hope for is to stay out of the fight. If they decide to get involved, then SK will be the first to be overrun.
Does anyone know the precision range of China's mass produced missiles? I imagine that if China is able to develop anti-ship ballistic missiles, it can probably target vital areas of air bases.
vesicles
Colonel
that's exactly my point. That tactics used by the West to attack the nations like Libya have no use in fighting China. Th West has to come up with completely new tactics.
I myself was not sure where I got the idea of "millions of dollars". That's why I said in my original post that "I'm totally guessing"...
I think you should read up a bit more.
Modern MRBM with an old-school radar imagining guided warhead (look up those pershin BMs) or Sat-Guide (like JDAM) or IR or optical (terminal terrian imager like those in Tomahawk) or simply anti-radiation war head (Like in Iskander).... Modern BMs are not imprecise carpet bombing weapon any more. It is not your grandfather's V2s. They are essentially delivery vehicles for precision guided munitions with a M3-4 terminal delivery speed.
coastal regions if you mean attacking civil targets in urban centers then it is a different story. gloves are off.
I wouldn't worry about US afghan troops too much. they are having their hands full just keeping their own supply lines open. Diego Garcia is different story.
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vesicles
Colonel
As we all know, wars are won by logistics. As I and other posters have pointed out, logistics is a huge issue when fighting China. China may not have the most advanced weapon systems and may lose a couple battles at the beginning, but defeating China in the fashion of how the West took Libya apart is almost impossible because of the logistics.
You cannot hope to overcome the air defense system of the entire China with the initial phase of missile attacks/bombers. As the conflict begins, those Western bases in the pacific immediately become targets of CHinese counter-attack. I don't think the term "counter attack" has been brought up much at all in past 30-40 years of global conflicts between any Western nation and their foes. However, there would be no doubt that Chinese will counter attack. Some of our fellow posters brought up the point that those damages can be easily fixed. Well, it may be, but don't expect CHina would stop attacking after only one attack. They would keep attacking until either they achieve their goal or they are stopped. that means the West will have to dedicate huge amount of resources in defending their bases instead of investing all their weapons in attacking their targets, like what they have been doing for the past 30-40 years. Defending itself for long period amount of time will also take a toll in the resources that would otherwise be used to attack their targets.
Once the resource is gone, supply is another issue. China's supply is within its own border and has been fortified for decades and won't be affected much unless their East coast is completely gone. As we are discussing HOW the West would destroy China's air defense in the East, that means China's own supply line should stay intact. The West's supply line however is a completely different story. Since most Western nations are separated from China by oceans, the supply will have to be done via the oceans. Either the battle ships have to go back, which takes a long time and should have a major impact on their ability to fight, or the supply comes to them. Do you think China will allow those huge and slow-moving supply ships traveling across the oceans freely? Those ships are pretty much sitting ducks to Chinese air strikes. The West can also escort their supply ships, but that will also take a toll into their resources since these escort ships could otherwise be used in attacks.
As you can see, fighting a foe that can fight back is completely different from hitting a sitting duck... I am not saying China will win a war or anything like that. All I'm saying is that it would take a complete different strategy to fight China than fighting Libya. Since we are discussing this issue in light of how Libya is defenseless against Western attack, my point is what happens to Libya has nothing to do with what would happen to China IF there is an attack. The US will NOT attack China in the same manner that it uses to attack Libya and China certainly will NOT defend itself like how Libya defended itself. So Libya cannot be used as a reference.
You cannot hope to overcome the air defense system of the entire China with the initial phase of missile attacks/bombers. As the conflict begins, those Western bases in the pacific immediately become targets of CHinese counter-attack. I don't think the term "counter attack" has been brought up much at all in past 30-40 years of global conflicts between any Western nation and their foes. However, there would be no doubt that Chinese will counter attack. Some of our fellow posters brought up the point that those damages can be easily fixed. Well, it may be, but don't expect CHina would stop attacking after only one attack. They would keep attacking until either they achieve their goal or they are stopped. that means the West will have to dedicate huge amount of resources in defending their bases instead of investing all their weapons in attacking their targets, like what they have been doing for the past 30-40 years. Defending itself for long period amount of time will also take a toll in the resources that would otherwise be used to attack their targets.
Once the resource is gone, supply is another issue. China's supply is within its own border and has been fortified for decades and won't be affected much unless their East coast is completely gone. As we are discussing HOW the West would destroy China's air defense in the East, that means China's own supply line should stay intact. The West's supply line however is a completely different story. Since most Western nations are separated from China by oceans, the supply will have to be done via the oceans. Either the battle ships have to go back, which takes a long time and should have a major impact on their ability to fight, or the supply comes to them. Do you think China will allow those huge and slow-moving supply ships traveling across the oceans freely? Those ships are pretty much sitting ducks to Chinese air strikes. The West can also escort their supply ships, but that will also take a toll into their resources since these escort ships could otherwise be used in attacks.
As you can see, fighting a foe that can fight back is completely different from hitting a sitting duck... I am not saying China will win a war or anything like that. All I'm saying is that it would take a complete different strategy to fight China than fighting Libya. Since we are discussing this issue in light of how Libya is defenseless against Western attack, my point is what happens to Libya has nothing to do with what would happen to China IF there is an attack. The US will NOT attack China in the same manner that it uses to attack Libya and China certainly will NOT defend itself like how Libya defended itself. So Libya cannot be used as a reference.
in order to continue attack varies US bases in Asia, china has to have sufficent supplies of precsion weapon that can reach Japan, guam and other US base in the region. There are also US base on west side of china they have to worry about.
Like i said before unless there is data/reports shows china has thousands MRBM that can hit targets hundreds/thousands km away with pinpoint accuracy. otherwise i don't think china can do much damage on those US bases. few precision guided missiles is not going to be enough to cause sufficent damage without few followthrough attacks, the US will simply fix those damage afterwards. at the same time there will be several cvg battle group lurking in the area.
of course its gonna be much tougher for US to accquire air superiority even in chinese costal area compare to libya, but US does have this capability right now if US dedicate to this war.
china is in no position to lunch attack at supply ship in open oceans, it doesn't have logistic to send strike fighter that far. and its not going able to send warships through US/western blockade either. china can protect its own territory well but beyond coastal region against US/western navy, there is not much they can do.
if war break out between china/US, US will send much more supplies, weaponary compare to iraq, and other wars.
Like i said before unless there is data/reports shows china has thousands MRBM that can hit targets hundreds/thousands km away with pinpoint accuracy. otherwise i don't think china can do much damage on those US bases. few precision guided missiles is not going to be enough to cause sufficent damage without few followthrough attacks, the US will simply fix those damage afterwards. at the same time there will be several cvg battle group lurking in the area.
of course its gonna be much tougher for US to accquire air superiority even in chinese costal area compare to libya, but US does have this capability right now if US dedicate to this war.
china is in no position to lunch attack at supply ship in open oceans, it doesn't have logistic to send strike fighter that far. and its not going able to send warships through US/western blockade either. china can protect its own territory well but beyond coastal region against US/western navy, there is not much they can do.
if war break out between china/US, US will send much more supplies, weaponary compare to iraq, and other wars.
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Other points aside why do you think China has to hit bases with pinpoint accuracy. The hangars are hardened, the airfields and aircrafts and personnels and equipments moving around on them are not. Just having cluster munitions comming in at unpredictable times is enough to severely disrupt operations.