Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

siegecrossbow · Apr 7, 2022

plawolf said:
Maybe not realistic, but it would be satisfying to send fighters to intercept her plane by overflying Taiwan island itself and escorting it to a Chinese airport under threat of shoot down. Two birds, one stone.

But it feels like this may be a trap by the US to try to create a crisis and a pretext to confiscate any and all foreign reserves Chinese banks and companies may have in accounts they can still freeze.

They blew their load prematurely against Russia and now realise China is working around the clock to develop countermeasures against the Financial doomsday weapons they lobbed against Russia. So they may wish to provoke a crisis to create a pretext to use those same weapons against China before Chinese countermeasures make them useless.

I understand why Biden admin must do something like this given the current geopolitical climate — to appear “strong” after ditching Allie’s first in Afghanistan and then Ukraine. But for this to be successful China must act like a “responsible actor” and not escalate the situation dramatically. In other words, if their gamble fails, the blowback will be tremendous.

Coalescence · Apr 7, 2022

plawolf said:
Maybe not realistic, but it would be satisfying to send fighters to intercept her plane by overflying Taiwan island itself and escorting it to a Chinese airport under threat of shoot down. Two birds, one stone.

But it feels like this may be a trap by the US to try to create a crisis and a pretext to confiscate any and all foreign reserves Chinese banks and companies may have in accounts they can still freeze.

They blew their load prematurely against Russia and now realise China is working around the clock to develop countermeasures against the Financial doomsday weapons they lobbed against Russia. So they may wish to provoke a crisis to create a pretext to use those same weapons against China before Chinese countermeasures make them useless.

This is the correct analysis for their motive in pursuing this action, also coupled with this bill that they are planning to pass

Miscellaneous News

Is this a confirmation that America won't defend Taiwan militarily? I'd take that deal. Conquer Taiwan, demilitarise them, and leave a PLA garrison in place. Have a one country two systems in place, and soon the Americans will stop their sanctions. ...and set up a PLAN base in the Zuoying...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

They are setting up preparations for the trap. The CPC should have seen this miles away, so most likely the response will be measured and in-tiers of escalation. They'll do what takwb have posted

takwb said:
My 2 cents are to raise export tariff against the US, jack up the inflation to mess with the Dems' mid term.
Military wise just send jets circling the island or sth. No need for anything too crazy however.
Since it's obvious that the old hag is looking to score cheap political points, and a few others pushing this could be looking to provoke China into attacking so they can pile on the financial sanction with the braindead Europeans just like they did Russia.
Now is simply not the best time for China to take back Taiwan.

Add on top of sanctions against members of the democrat party, and announce more or accelerate their military cooperation with states US considers as their enemies. The development of countermeasures will likely speed up, along with capital flight from the US. Once everything is set, they'll wait for the next provocation and escalate even further by sanctioning any US companies that does businesses with Taiwanese ones without a permit or permissions, preventing them from doing business in China. After which, now that the banks are isolated from US and their allies, China will conduct trade and evade sanctions with states US considers as their enemies.

Edit: The sanctioning US businesses that conduct trade with Taiwan is likely seen as a possible escalation ladder that China would take on them, but even if they pass the bill to prevent that from happening, it will only delay the inevitable that China will execute it.

Bellum_Romanum · Apr 7, 2022

Why can't China initiate an emergency UN security council meeting on this situation to show the western world that China is indeed not interested in starting a conflict unprovoked, and that this upcoming move by the Speaker of the house is a violation of the One China Policy that has been agreed, and recognized by the UN and is legitimate under international law.

This way, China is trying to invoke/utilize the UN, diplomatic route prior to taking force as a last resort which shows the white western world it's intent, and uncompromising stance on it's core national interests. If this action is taken I don't see how the U.S. can weasel itself and her vassals out of this impending mess. Ukraine is not Taiwan under any international law period.

China ought to utilize Public relations right now and put the U.S. and her monkeys on the defensive for once rather than reacting to American actions. Otherwise, regardless of how righteous she maybe both morally, and under international law the U.S. can make Chinese actions the worst thing ever.

plawolf · Apr 7, 2022

siegecrossbow said:
I understand why Biden admin must do something like this given the current geopolitical climate — to appear “strong” after ditching Allie’s first in Afghanistan and then Ukraine. But for this to be successful China must act like a “responsible actor” and not escalate the situation dramatically. In other words, if their gamble fails, the blowback will be tremendous.

Doesn’t really matter to the Americans does it? Just like Ukraine, it will be someone else that pays the blood price for their miscalculations and misjudgments.

Coalescence · Apr 7, 2022

Bellum_Romanum said:
Why can't China initiate an emergency UN security council meeting on this situation to show the western world that China is indeed not interested in starting a conflict unprovoked, and that this upcoming move by the Speaker of the house is a violation of the One China Policy that has been agreed, and recognized by the UN and is legitimate under international law.

This way, China is trying to invoke/utilize the UN, diplomatic route prior to taking force as a last resort which shows the white western world it's intent, and uncompromising stance on it's core national interests. If this action is taken I don't see how the U.S. can weasel itself and her vassals out of this impending mess. Ukraine is not Taiwan under any international law period.

China ought to utilize Public relations right now and put the U.S. and her monkeys on the defensive for once rather than reacting to American actions. Otherwise, regardless of how righteous she maybe both morally, and under international law the U.S. can make Chinese actions the worst thing ever.

They'll likely call the UN security council when the redlines are crossed and when they are about to take action on Taiwan, similar to what Russia did when their redlines in Ukraine is being touched. Doing right now doesn't achieve much, and they will just twist it to justify giving Taiwan more aids and weapons. So the UN security council, will be used to explain to the world the situation and as Casus belli to do their operations on Taiwan.

Bellum_Romanum · Apr 7, 2022

Coalescence said:
They'll likely call the UN security council when the redlines are crossed and when they are about to take action on Taiwan, similar to what Russia did when their redlines in Ukraine is being touched. Doing right now doesn't achieve much, and they will just twist it to justify giving Taiwan more aids and weapons. So the UN security council, will be used to explain to the world the situation and as Casus belli to do their operations on Taiwan.

But China isn't Russia, and Taiwan isn't Ukraine. Ukraine is a sovereign country, legally recognized by the UN while Taiwan is recognized as part of ONE CHINA. And none of the NATO countries even recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state.

What the Russians did against Ukraine couldn't get enough traction diplomatically because of the known fact that what they're demanding was virtually impossible for any country that recognizes the sanctity of sovereignty to allow Russia what it wanted for Ukraine.

Taiwan, isn't even remotely in the same category irrespective of how the western media has been shaping the narrative to it's people these many years. At least with this UN emergency meeting the world will be forced to face with Taiwan issue head on, with the media of the world actually discussing the sovereignty of CHINA as a whole which implicitly include Taiwan as part of China.

It's not a question of wether this diplomatic route will work or not but it's a way for China of telling, showing the world that it's first course of action or even the preferred action isn't military. So if and when this route isn't taken seriously then China, and the Chinese people can't be shamed when the use of force is taken which it must take against American meddling. CHINA ought to raise the issue of SOVEREIGNTY, ONE CHINA POLICY, AND THE UNEQUIVOCAL DECLARATION OF THE USE OF FORCE AGAINST ANY, AND ALL WHO DARE TO CHALLENGE CHINA'S BOTTOM LINE.

Coalescence · Apr 7, 2022

Bellum_Romanum said:
But China isn't Russia, and Taiwan isn't Ukraine. Ukraine is a sovereign country, legally recognized by the UN while Taiwan is recognized as part of ONE CHINA. And none of the NATO countries even recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state.

What the Russians did against Ukraine couldn't get enough traction diplomatically because of the known fact that what they're demanding was virtually impossible for any country that recognizes the sanctity of sovereignty to allow Russia what it wanted for Ukraine.

Taiwan, isn't even remotely in the same category irrespective of how the western media has been shaping the narrative to it's people these many years. At least with this UN emergency meeting the world will be forced to face with Taiwan issue head on, with the media of the world actually discussing the sovereignty of CHINA as a whole which implicitly include Taiwan as part of China.

It's not a question of wether this diplomatic route will work or not but it's a way for China of telling, showing the world that it's first course of action or even the preferred action isn't military. So if and when this route isn't taken seriously then China, and the Chinese people can't be shamed when the use of force is taken which it must take against American meddling. CHINA ought to raise the issue of SOVEREIGNTY, ONE CHINA POLICY, AND THE UNEQUIVOCAL DECLARATION OF THE USE OF FORCE AGAINST ANY, AND ALL WHO DARE TO CHALLENGE CHINA'S BOTTOM LINE.

I agree that China must make it more clear and widespread about the Taiwan question, but there's not a lot of avenue to spread it without the US being able to control the narrative and twist China's words. To the majority of indoctrinated folks, Taiwan is a country and a "freedom loving democracy" that is being threatened by "evil authoritarian communist" China trying to conquer and annex them. China cannot win against decades long indoctrination the US have done to the world, so its better not to waste time with winning the people's heart but through building up cooperation and diplomacy between countries that are neutral or friendly to China.

For what's it worth, China could try paying a few celebrities and politicians that can speak out about Taiwan without a lot of risk to themselves, and ask countries with few ties to US to publicly announce that Taiwan is part of China, and US is violating the One China principle agreed upon by international law, to get the conversation going on China's sovereign claim on Taiwan.

I do have hopes however, that by then when the UN security council is held, and a vote for a bill to tell US to back off on Taiwan, supporting China's claim on the island, the result of China's diplomacy behind the back will show. Just like the Uyghur genocide accusation, majority of the countries will vote to back China on the matter.

Bellum_Romanum · Apr 7, 2022

The diplomatic route isn't designed for the consumption of the western public but their political-military-business leaders that are actually in control of their governments. Most importantly, the diplomatic route is to directly show the Chinese people that despite the provocative actions America and her chihuahuas are taking, the CPC is taking a responsible, mature, course of actions so that if and when the USE OF FORCE IS UTILIZE the CHINESE PEOPLE’S SUPPORT IS VIRTUALLY UNMOLESTED. Unity is the strength of the Chinese people, with them United no force in the world can disrupt, prevent, and stop China from achieving it's goal of reunification once and for all.

Again, the goal here is for the Chinese people not the sheeps of the western world to show that their action is just, and legitimate under international law. No Chinese can be shamed or be accused of being a warmongerer when all the actions taken prior to the conflict was American led initiatives.

Coalescence · Apr 7, 2022

Bellum_Romanum said:
The diplomatic route isn't designed for the consumption of the western public but their political-military-business leaders that are actually in control of their governments. Most importantly, the diplomatic route is to directly show the Chinese people that despite the provocative actions America and her chihuahuas are taking, the CPC is taking a responsible, mature, course of actions so that if and when the USE OF FORCE IS UTILIZE the CHINESE PEOPLE’S SUPPORT IS VIRTUALLY UNMOLESTED. Unity is the strength of the Chinese people, with them United no force in the world can disrupt, prevent, and stop China from achieving it's goal of reunification once and for all.

Again, the goal here is for the Chinese people not the sheeps of the western world.

I don't think they have to worry about public support on military reunification of Taiwan through military means, I've seen comments on the topic, and generally the netizens are more excited and supportive of using military means to reunify Taiwan than the government is, similar to the situation with Putin now on the operations in Ukraine, Putin's popularity shot up to around 80% now last I read. So I expect if reunification by military means is executed, Xi's popularity will skyrocket and be celebrated as one of the greatest leaders in China's history.

I think we won't have much luck with the political and military leaders in US, while the business leaders are more pro-China, they seem to have less influence nowadays, judging by how much they have to go through just to get tax exemptions on tariff enacted in Trump's period and now continued under Biden. There's also this post in this thread that said that Washington doesn't listen to the business class and more on the military, think tankers and political class.