What we really need to ask is what will happen to Russia? China has been locked in cold war against US for a while (which has been largely destructive to both sides). While I dont think the US and China are going to pursue the path of reconciliation, it seems that the democrats at least want to take revenge on Russia, who they blame for giving trump the win in 2016. Is this why putin brought up a few weeks ago the idea of a formal alliance between russia and china?
Russia's geopolitical prospects have materially gotten worse, while China's has largely stayed the same pre/post election, with increased preditability now. Would it be easier for china to cut a deal for alliance with russia? Perhaps ask for stopping arms sales to India (and make them spend more on western arms?). Russia does have things to offer (i.e. cheap energy/military technologies) but those are not things america lacks.I think America could put screws on Russia much easier than on china. Thoughts?
Russia's geopolitical prospects have materially gotten worse, while China's has largely stayed the same pre/post election, with increased preditability now. Would it be easier for china to cut a deal for alliance with russia? Perhaps ask for stopping arms sales to India (and make them spend more on western arms?). Russia does have things to offer (i.e. cheap energy/military technologies) but those are not things america lacks.I think America could put screws on Russia much easier than on china. Thoughts?
That's called the If you expand to 7-6 liberal majority, then it will eventually end up with "infinity justices".
It's impossible to disprove a slippery slope fallacy since it's essentially fearmongering and exaggerated as "anarchy".
Last edited:
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Russia and and the EU are always at loggerheads, which I think is the main obstacle between a formal alliance, as China does not care or want to be involved in Russia’s games with the EU.
India is meaningless and not something China would consider at a such a high strategic level.
If Biden wins, especially a contested win, I would look at Taiwan real carefully, as I think there is a fair chance China might look to use this historic opportunity to settle the issue once and for all.
Conventional wisdom always had time being on China’s side when it came to Taiwan, but I think this past few years have served up several massive events that might have significantly, if not fundamentally shifted that calculation.
Firstly, the HK riots would have been a massive wake up call for China on the power of western brainwashing and indoctrination.
If the west could do that in HK, where China has control, can you imagine the work they are doing to Taiwan’s youth, with active co-operation of the ROC government? Peaceful reunification will never be on the cards it western powers have a free hand to poison the minds of Taiwan’s young against China.
The second shift was Trump’s Trade War and Cold War Lite. Previously the web of mutual interest was seen as a massive safety net against direct conflict between China and the US, since both had too much to loose economically. Trump has stripped away much of that safety net, so the cost of direct conflict is massively reduced for both sides.
This also marks the first time since the two established diplomatic relations that the US has shown outright hostility towards China.
Even if Biden wins, those major significant strategic shifts are unlikely to slow, never mind reverse. China and the US now seems like they are on an unavoidable confrontation path.
The third factor is Covid.
China would not have forgotten the west’s early blatant glee at the prospect of a ‘Chinese Chernobyl’.
China managed to successfully meet this challenge, but can you imagine how badly it could have gone for China if it had not?
If China was actually completely hobbled by Covid while the rest of the world escaped relatively unscathed, there was a good chance Taiwan would be seized the opportunity to declare formal independence with American support. China would have been faced with an impossible choice of either fighting a war at is lowest point, and one it is almost certain to loose, or allow it to happen and face potential revolution at home.
Taiwan as it is now is forever a dagger aimed at China’s throat that America can choose to stab with at a time that most suits them.
A Biden contested win and American domestic chaos during the transition period would present China with the first opportunity in its modern history to take Taiwan by force with the least risk of direct American military intervention.
Taking Taiwan will not only remove the easy, surefire way for America to go to war with China while making China look like the aggressor, it will break the first island chain, allowing the PLAN free and open access to the open Pacific, and also present China with a powerful bulwark to protect China’s critical coastal cities and infrastructure from attack form the sea.
I think China’s leaders would be remiss in their duties if they did not carefully weigh up the possibility of seizing this opportunity to take Taiwan back.
India is meaningless and not something China would consider at a such a high strategic level.
If Biden wins, especially a contested win, I would look at Taiwan real carefully, as I think there is a fair chance China might look to use this historic opportunity to settle the issue once and for all.
Conventional wisdom always had time being on China’s side when it came to Taiwan, but I think this past few years have served up several massive events that might have significantly, if not fundamentally shifted that calculation.
Firstly, the HK riots would have been a massive wake up call for China on the power of western brainwashing and indoctrination.
If the west could do that in HK, where China has control, can you imagine the work they are doing to Taiwan’s youth, with active co-operation of the ROC government? Peaceful reunification will never be on the cards it western powers have a free hand to poison the minds of Taiwan’s young against China.
The second shift was Trump’s Trade War and Cold War Lite. Previously the web of mutual interest was seen as a massive safety net against direct conflict between China and the US, since both had too much to loose economically. Trump has stripped away much of that safety net, so the cost of direct conflict is massively reduced for both sides.
This also marks the first time since the two established diplomatic relations that the US has shown outright hostility towards China.
Even if Biden wins, those major significant strategic shifts are unlikely to slow, never mind reverse. China and the US now seems like they are on an unavoidable confrontation path.
The third factor is Covid.
China would not have forgotten the west’s early blatant glee at the prospect of a ‘Chinese Chernobyl’.
China managed to successfully meet this challenge, but can you imagine how badly it could have gone for China if it had not?
If China was actually completely hobbled by Covid while the rest of the world escaped relatively unscathed, there was a good chance Taiwan would be seized the opportunity to declare formal independence with American support. China would have been faced with an impossible choice of either fighting a war at is lowest point, and one it is almost certain to loose, or allow it to happen and face potential revolution at home.
Taiwan as it is now is forever a dagger aimed at China’s throat that America can choose to stab with at a time that most suits them.
A Biden contested win and American domestic chaos during the transition period would present China with the first opportunity in its modern history to take Taiwan by force with the least risk of direct American military intervention.
Taking Taiwan will not only remove the easy, surefire way for America to go to war with China while making China look like the aggressor, it will break the first island chain, allowing the PLAN free and open access to the open Pacific, and also present China with a powerful bulwark to protect China’s critical coastal cities and infrastructure from attack form the sea.
I think China’s leaders would be remiss in their duties if they did not carefully weigh up the possibility of seizing this opportunity to take Taiwan back.
Unfortunately you are most likely correct. At this point, even if China adopts Liberal Democracy and disbands the PLA, I'm still not sure that the Taiwanese will agree to peaceful reunification. There has been too much propaganda for too long. Look at how the pro-unification media is being silenced.
This will be the greatest test China will face since WW2. It will justify Xi's third term and be the culmination of all the military reforms up to date. This can be the kind of war that will define a new world order for centuries.
Taiwan must be taken rapidly and then a blockade must be defended against the combined navy and air force of USA, Japan and possibly NATO members. India may take this chance as well, like Italy in WW1.
However it must be said. There's this idea about the USA being afraid of casualties and will give up easily. This is a miscalculation. An unprovoked assault on Taiwan will potentially unite both parties under the flag of a war against evil communist dictatorial China to protect the vibrant democracy in Taiwan. Being anti-China is already basically the only thing that both parties can agree on these days. Attacking Taiwan is not a decision to be made lightly.
Ideally, the DPP on Taiwan must provoke China in some way to justify Chinese response.
Damn, was hoping to go to Taiwan to visit the National museum before the war, then Covid hit.
Definitely don't want to be on a plane in the air when the shooting starts what with American spy planes masquerading as civilian jets...
I get the feeling that Russia wants an alliance now that US/EU have sanctioned them, NATO expanded at their doorstep. Sounds like Russia needs China more than China needs Russia if you know what I mean (Ally of Convenience). I feel like Russia wants to play the "GOTCHA CHINA CARD" as if it can deter US/NATO/EU, but it will do little to scare them because they know China is concentrated on Asia-Pacific, not Middle East or Eastern Europe.
Nobody in China wants to be dragged into Russia's dogfight in Middle East or Ukraine, and Russia will be ZERO help in Korea/Taiwan/SCS. Also, Russia annexed vast swathes of northern China to the point where 120 million Dongbeiren are landlocked, they are untrustworthy.
By virtue of geography, India is a natural friendly neighbor since nobody can threaten each other with land invasion due to Himalayas, which is like the Pacific Ocean as far as a natural barrier. I prefer neutral/friendly with India, but they might need to be taught a lesson once in a while since they are inheritors of the British tradition, which only knows respect through military might.
I like your thinking. A contested election means the US President can't really intervene militarily in Taiwan (not like they had that much apetite in the first place).
Really? I never thought there was a chance for peaceful unification, because KMT fought CCP in a civil war, so naturally it will end in war... but I agree, so long as US/West can use HK/Taiwan to undermine China, they will try with poisonings propaganda and influence the minds of young Taiwanese.
Soviet Union never fought US directly during the real Cold War, I don't know why you think China (enormously more powerful than Soviet Union) is going to fight US. Perhaps only via Proxy wars like Korea.
I agree with you on this.
Taiwan Relations Act was deliberately ambiguous so US can squirm away from it's commitment to defending Taiwan if it is inconvenient. A contested election plus pandemic is just that inconvenient moment. I like your thinking.
I think that is one viable way to initiate reunification with Taiwan.
Another is wait until China is fully industrialized, globalized, and economically prosperous, while US is mired in Iranian or Venezuelan occupation campaign, tell North Korea to strike South Korea simultaneously while PLA swarms Taiwan.
I like your idea of a contested election and pandemic to distract US though, that is also a good idea. I prefer getting US bogged down militarily in Korea and Iran and perhaps with Russia, then striking Taiwan.
Trump is good for China, but Mike Pompeo is bad for China.
Trump is a clown/idiot, but he says YES to whatever Mike Pompeo whispers into his ear. Mike Pompeo is the former CIA Director, meaning he is devious, conniving, and dangerous. Mike Pompeo is dangerous to China, you really don't want another 4 years with him.
Why would US sacrifice American blood for Taiwan when US won't even sell F-35s to the Taiwanese airforce like it does with true allies Korea/Japan?
It's because US is afraid of Taiwan Conquest by PLA will mean F-35's in Chinese military hands. US believes Taiwan is BEYOUND hopeless, that's why it refuses to sell the most advanced US weaponry F-35 that it sells to true allies.
You need to de-emphasize the "convincing" part because Westerners will always doubt China's side of the story. Taiwan can assassinate Xi Jinping with clear evidence, but US/West will always back Taiwan's side of story. There is no point of trying to persuade the West of what China is doing is good, they already think "CHINA BAD" .
Why would China want to ask Russia to stop selling arms to India? It's better if India buys Russian. Russians need money to stay afloat and be a useful partner, it's better if Russians get to milk the Indians.
solarz
Brigadier
Only the ugly ones.