I think im willing to bet that nothing you wrote will happen, its not the early 2000s anymore.
lol, did the tariffs and tech bans not happen under Trump?
You really live in the land of unicorns and rainbows, don't you? So, why do you think the US hasn't already done those things, genius? They would have to pay a heavy price, and it wouldn't go well. Also, China is well prepared, this is not your little fantasy world.
It's funny, the US is so powerful and smart in your little bird brain, yet it couldn't defeat China when it was at its weakest, nor Vietnam, nor Afghanistan, nor Cuba, do I continue? If you are sleepy, you should go to sleep, seems like the lack of rest is severely affecting your brain oxygen inflow.
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You wrote expanding the tarifs and tech bans to 3rd party nations.
Not sure who writing worse fan fiction sleepy or that old white guy that thinks Jiang Zemin will take over China again from Xi.
I can't be bother to address your crazy list one by one.
I would simply ask you to list the cards that China holds and see how they line up against the US. Looking at only your perceived advantages without adjusting for adversary leverage and counters is exactly how you lose wars.
Most of the items you list are all imaginary. For example, if there was a real war, there will be a huge anti-Asian bent in this country as thousands come back in body bags. Who da fuck is crazy enough to emigrate to the US then? I might not get into top tier US PhD program but at least I'm not getting randomly shot or investigated/ostracized.
Areospace, Machine Tool, OS, are all just the same thing. Listing the shit over and over, you might need to reign in your imagination a bit. Heck, you might even list chicken feet and crawlfish in to the pile as we export a shit ton of those as well.
Essentially, everything you listed can be sum up as destabilization. The question you must ask is who will fare better and emerge faster from destabilization? US or China.
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Something hasn't been done yet doesn't mean it won't happen. Everything is they haven't already done it before they actually do it. What has already happened is the US deployed THAAD in S. Korea, slapped a bunch of sanctions on China, created the Quad, and then now forming US-UK-Australia arms pact. So don't be complacent. If China's inaction continues, the US and its minions (Taiwan, Australia, Japan, Canada, UK, S. Korea etc) will do those things step by step.
I'm sure they're willing to pay any price to destroy China. The price doesn't matter as long as you win the war and get rid of your enemy. Once your enemy is gone, it's all yours and you can recover. Paying a hefty price and be the sole ruler is better than not paying any price and have your enemy as a risk. That's how wars work and why humans start wars. You need to be willing to pay whatever price to dominate to survive in this 'either eat them or get eaten' jungle.
Taiwan, S.Korea, Australia are already deploying missiles, submarines and submarine-launched missiles to target China. The US has been actively arming its minions around China and China has border conflicts with India as well. China doesn't have much time left. Taiwan and S.Korea need to be sorted out for a first step at least within 1-2 years. If China wastes more time, even those small countries around China will soon be impregnable and will be aiming right at centers of China.
Let me pretend to be Xi for a second....
1. I would not go after ROK and ROC first. Most of these systems are of no real consequence for peer level fight between US and China. By that I mean shit that could go up to the use of tactical nukes. THAAD and SSNs are nice toys to brandish, but they do dick squat in a all out fight. US cannot assume that China will fight according to established doctrine and not resort to some ball to the wall shit as Asians do. Forget DF-41, as long as China has a nuclear device left, there is no telling how they will deliver that shit. Are you going to sort through every vessel at sea?
2. The real soft underbelly of the US right now is its economy. Tank the economy and all these toys becomes cost centers overnight. If there was a crisis worse than 2008, most people would be like "FUCK TAIWAN". Some may argue that US is looking for a Pearl Harbor moment, using exigent external threat to pull everyone together. But it's 2021 and not 1941. There is no ramp up for war production, and everyone is already at everyone's throats. A destructive conflict might have the opposite effect of tanking the US establishment and bringing about a ruinous populous leadership, potentially fragmenting the union.
3. With ROC, I start with defined economic sanctions. Detailing phased implementation and impact over a period of a year or more. I would then sequence that with military actions in the form of overflights. This way, there are on ramps and off ramps. But along the way, it give Taiwanese some time to feel the pain.
4. These sanction alone might trigger collapse of NYSE, and bring about sever economic shock to the US system.
5. If after a year, with sanction in place, US under going a 50%+ correction in equity markets, and overflight on a frequent basis, the shit has not been toned down, then its time to try to plan for the take over.
There is no reason to go after ROK or even ROC, because at the end of the day, you still have to live with them as neighbors. You prep war through peace, and you plan for peace before you go to war.
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Not really. Confining this discussion to SK/TW/AUS:
For South Korea the minute they go on the offensive their existence will be in jeopardy. South Korea doing anything triggers the Sino-Korean Mutual Defense Treaty and means that the conflict will no longer be contained to military on military. North Korea is chomping at the bit to get to them and KPA with PLAAF and PLAN support is a force to be reckoned with.
Australia is the same. What is the difference with 8 more SSNs for them vs 8 more for the US except that they will have worse training and maintenance? They can't build or maintain it themselves so it just clogs up US capability. And if they strike, they open themselves up to a far more devastating counterattack.
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Buddy, you are just pushing propaganda.
I take it that you're an Asian. Why are you pushing US propaganda?
Yawn
Is this the infamous "concern trolling"?
Yes any time now China will lose.. Yawn
Recently a lot of people seem to worry about China. This can only mean that it must be doing something right for those people to be complaining all day about it
